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Window 1 results: recompute with fixed metrics + reframe limitations

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After the B3 audit bug fixes (joined_analysis hotspot median +
b3_analyze percentile interp), regenerate b3_policy_comparison.json
and the per-policy hotspot_index.json from the same raw run on
dash0 and re-render the three affected figures (apc-vs-hotspot,
latency-bars, per-worker TTFT).

Key number changes in window_1_results.md:
- hotspot_index magnitudes corrected (all five policies; lmetric
  smallest delta at +0.7%, sticky largest at +16.1%)
- "capped reduces hotspot 13%" -> "~10% (2.253 -> 2.020)"
- TTFT/E2E/TPOT percentiles shift by <1% from floor->interp
  (unified TTFT p90 7.24 -> 7.35 s)

Restructured "Caveats" into "Limitations (read this before quoting
B3 numbers)":
1. Agentic dispatch coupling is by design — promoted from caveat
   to top-level methodology framing, tied to
   agentic_dispatch_coupling.md
2. B3 interference_index is binary (not size-graded) — added
3. Hot-sweep cache contamination (<1%) — kept
4. Unified interference unrecoverable — kept with explicit warning
   not to read unified's failure attribution as causal
5. w600 is a sample, not full trace — kept
6. Reuse decomposition is per-token in expectation — added

current_results/characterization_claim_matrix.md updates:
- The "heavy-tail not sole cause" claim now cites the corrected
  ~10% drop with the median bug noted
- New supported claim: "B3 saturated-replay latency gaps include an
  agentic dispatch-coupling feedback term, which is intentional and
  matches production"; cited against agentic_dispatch_coupling.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Gahow Wang
2026-05-26 01:08:55 +08:00
parent 0e82612100
commit 0881942cf3
11 changed files with 131 additions and 72 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

94
analysis/characterization/window_1_results/b3_policy_comparison.json
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@@ -4,18 +4,18 @@
"policy": "capped",
"n_ok": 770,
"n_total": 770,
"ttft_p50_s": 1.195636051998008,
"ttft_p90_s": 12.762421467981767,
"ttft_p99_s": 46.05476947501302,
"tpot_p50_s": 0.007229394937166944,
"tpot_p90_s": 0.015995440982929352,
"tpot_p99_s": 0.10145225453431651,
"e2e_p50_s": 2.5921602529706433,
"e2e_p90_s": 21.238469071977306,
"e2e_p99_s": 73.38509433099534,
"ttft_p50_s": 1.1989156164927408,
"ttft_p90_s": 12.827629912580612,
"ttft_p99_s": 46.61752380923125,
"tpot_p50_s": 0.007231239004497606,
"tpot_p90_s": 0.015998617687440243,
"tpot_p99_s": 0.11515370831539476,
"e2e_p50_s": 2.598489043477457,
"e2e_p90_s": 21.245602010778384,
"e2e_p99_s": 74.60736650204846,
"apc_ratio": 0.3158312503528108,
"interference_index": 6.331064378362814,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 1.9366915542605314,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 2.0204268015410918,
"reuse_intra_frac": 0.9192657105586233,
"reuse_cross_frac": 0.0602232594931501,
"n_slow": 185,
@@ -30,18 +30,18 @@
"policy": "lmetric",
"n_ok": 1214,
"n_total": 1214,
"ttft_p50_s": 0.9369571270071901,
"ttft_p90_s": 15.592678204004187,
"ttft_p99_s": 52.95170431700535,
"tpot_p50_s": 0.008851506907892485,
"tpot_p90_s": 0.02120516549011311,
"tpot_p99_s": 0.17592118933357093,
"e2e_p50_s": 2.7527842019917443,
"e2e_p90_s": 24.75416105298791,
"e2e_p99_s": 79.61890332301846,
"ttft_p50_s": 0.9387824369769078,
"ttft_p90_s": 15.671339168207492,
"ttft_p99_s": 53.56683189840049,
"tpot_p50_s": 0.008854518407308914,
"tpot_p90_s": 0.02122720699121469,
"tpot_p99_s": 0.18280341184277568,
"e2e_p50_s": 2.754255389008904,
"e2e_p90_s": 24.8209177934099,
"e2e_p99_s": 80.59924928059091,
"apc_ratio": 0.5694312382571595,
"interference_index": 6.530231061794441,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 2.237981740718548,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 2.252837147833725,
"reuse_intra_frac": 0.9321238805590836,
"reuse_cross_frac": 0.05679481258506571,
"n_slow": 295,
@@ -56,18 +56,18 @@
"policy": "load_only",
"n_ok": 1214,
"n_total": 1214,
"ttft_p50_s": 1.2542553890380077,
"ttft_p90_s": 20.14692750602262,
"ttft_p99_s": 52.64810254302574,
"tpot_p50_s": 0.00923045912795929,
"tpot_p90_s": 0.02672785480314115,
"tpot_p99_s": 0.3207044094773148,
"e2e_p50_s": 3.584156609023921,
"e2e_p90_s": 33.42658680601744,
"e2e_p99_s": 93.91839688795153,
"ttft_p50_s": 1.2609447415161412,
"ttft_p90_s": 20.197147866390882,
"ttft_p99_s": 52.84285237012196,
"tpot_p50_s": 0.009231464695980247,
"tpot_p90_s": 0.026851662550158716,
"tpot_p99_s": 0.3211630676943426,
"e2e_p50_s": 3.58568156149704,
"e2e_p90_s": 33.459180271782685,
"e2e_p99_s": 93.95083751494239,
"apc_ratio": 0.5412093853102866,
"interference_index": 9.16424627504275,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 1.1400531308102801,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 1.2940319990630569,
"reuse_intra_frac": 0.9353191550754928,
"reuse_cross_frac": 0.053372184678592026,
"n_slow": 379,
@@ -82,18 +82,18 @@
"policy": "sticky",
"n_ok": 1214,
"n_total": 1214,
"ttft_p50_s": 0.540947844972834,
"ttft_p90_s": 18.016640832996927,
"ttft_p99_s": 71.37327494798228,
"tpot_p50_s": 0.00894752275507555,
"tpot_p90_s": 0.0360956137329512,
"tpot_p99_s": 0.34523129428917954,
"e2e_p50_s": 2.0788628259906545,
"e2e_p90_s": 34.605129147996195,
"e2e_p99_s": 133.5824547969969,
"ttft_p50_s": 0.5415176274836995,
"ttft_p90_s": 18.021296651283045,
"ttft_p99_s": 74.09429564891524,
"tpot_p50_s": 0.008952101894096181,
"tpot_p90_s": 0.03641285916619554,
"tpot_p99_s": 0.35152006935195085,
"e2e_p50_s": 2.081947358994512,
"e2e_p90_s": 34.62592205510591,
"e2e_p99_s": 139.68334607904353,
"apc_ratio": 0.7720092868396378,
"interference_index": 13.651718321568111,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 2.3493858974059214,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 2.727756623171119,
"reuse_intra_frac": 0.9327723488279339,
"reuse_cross_frac": 0.05495149683864246,
"n_slow": 234,
@@ -109,17 +109,17 @@
"n_ok": 1213,
"n_total": 1214,
"ttft_p50_s": 0.4997710260213353,
"ttft_p90_s": 7.239999514014926,
"ttft_p99_s": 42.022206099005416,
"ttft_p90_s": 7.345769894809922,
"ttft_p99_s": 42.34170345296613,
"tpot_p50_s": 0.008079791456705824,
"tpot_p90_s": 0.017107906969874808,
"tpot_p99_s": 0.11808861252148231,
"tpot_p90_s": 0.017110194704198407,
"tpot_p99_s": 0.12655874612209597,
"e2e_p50_s": 1.7495028690318577,
"e2e_p90_s": 17.893827292020433,
"e2e_p99_s": 68.18008507299237,
"e2e_p90_s": 18.033410895219994,
"e2e_p99_s": 68.80023987947489,
"apc_ratio": 0.794261466256467,
"interference_index": null,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 3.3497107140827365,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 3.667136528736114,
"reuse_intra_frac": 0.9311187350942534,
"reuse_cross_frac": 0.056702150437367635,
"n_slow": 189,

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4
analysis/characterization/window_1_results/per_worker_capped.json
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
{
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 1.9366915542605314,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 2.0204268015410918,
"per_worker_latency_p90_s": {
"http://127.0.0.1:8000": 23.81083881931848,
"http://127.0.0.1:8001": 18.139674991380897,
@@ -21,4 +21,4 @@
"http://127.0.0.1:8007": 9.661995008389932
},
"status": "supported"
}
}

4
analysis/characterization/window_1_results/per_worker_lmetric.json
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
{
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 2.237981740718548,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 2.252837147833725,
"per_worker_latency_p90_s": {
"http://127.0.0.1:8000": 34.71445541951107,
"http://127.0.0.1:8001": 21.922988962882666,
@@ -21,4 +21,4 @@
"http://127.0.0.1:8007": 11.777357225219024
},
"status": "supported"
}
}

4
analysis/characterization/window_1_results/per_worker_load_only.json
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
{
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 1.1400531308102801,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 1.2940319990630569,
"per_worker_latency_p90_s": {
"http://127.0.0.1:8000": 33.51168999259829,
"http://127.0.0.1:8001": 29.20308109278556,
@@ -21,4 +21,4 @@
"http://127.0.0.1:8007": 13.95184187250561
},
"status": "supported"
}
}

4
analysis/characterization/window_1_results/per_worker_sticky.json
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
{
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 2.3493858974059214,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 2.727756623171119,
"per_worker_latency_p90_s": {
"http://127.0.0.1:8000": 30.185792533413043,
"http://127.0.0.1:8001": 47.49661003401852,
@@ -21,4 +21,4 @@
"http://127.0.0.1:8007": 2.4984901855932535
},
"status": "supported"
}
}

4
analysis/characterization/window_1_results/per_worker_unified.json
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
{
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 3.3497107140827365,
"hotspot_index_ttft_p90": 3.667136528736114,
"per_worker_latency_p90_s": {
"http://127.0.0.1:8000": 41.42001512600109,
"http://127.0.0.1:8001": 12.4878579101933,
@@ -21,4 +21,4 @@
"http://127.0.0.1:8007": 7.772977900883419
},
"status": "supported"
}
}