PD-disagg crossover: regular synthetic trace + goodput sweep + figure

gen_synthetic_trace.py --mode regular: maximally-regular multi-turn trace
(fixed prefix/delta/turns, constant arrivals, zero session skew) to isolate
the structural PD cost (per-turn full-context transfer + P/D capacity split)
from the skew/hot-pin artifact.

analysis/crossover/: SLO-goodput PD_advantage sweeps bracketing the
prefill<->decode bottleneck axis (D1 grow input -> prefill-bound; D2 grow
output -> decode-bound). figs/crossover_pd_advantage.png shows the crossover
(y=1) with the agentic operating region annotated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

analysis/crossover/d1_i1024_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d1_i16384_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d1_i2048_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d1_i8192_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d2_o1024_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d2_o128_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d2_o2048_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d2_o256_goodput.json

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+      "n_success": 3551,
+      "completion_rate": 0.9997184684684685,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 744.8868488909211,
+      "amplification": 2.4850981601942745,
+      "ttft": {
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+        "mean": 0.20500909556101396,
+        "p50": 0.20017725799698383,
+        "p90": 0.21613375598099083,
+        "p99": 0.29023518750909716
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 3551,
+        "mean": 0.010307210080394247,
+        "p50": 0.010299421709450874,
+        "p90": 0.011793581666607482,
+        "p99": 0.012639003840969035
+      },
+      "e2e": {
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+        "mean": 2.8339171693501317,
+        "p50": 2.8360355379991233,
+        "p90": 3.2198793930001557,
+        "p99": 3.438588996999897
+      }
+    },
+    "6P+2D": {
+      "name": "6P+2D",
+      "n_offered": 3552,
+      "n_success": 3552,
+      "completion_rate": 1.0,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 303.4300506779691,
+      "amplification": 1.0123060459587976,
+      "ttft": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 0.2333820717117756,
+        "p50": 0.23283391550648957,
+        "p90": 0.24394672318594532,
+        "p99": 0.2734717815916518
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 0.016453822599812207,
+        "p50": 0.016576926972415737,
+        "p90": 0.017214638463623238,
+        "p99": 0.01769411424845092
+      },
+      "e2e": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 4.430368151474328,
+        "p50": 4.463736370031256,
+        "p90": 4.628522685484495,
+        "p99": 4.75812664218829
+      }
+    }
+  },
+  "slo_grid": [
+    {
+      "ttft_slo_s": 2.0,
+      "tpot_slo_s": 0.05,
+      "arms": {
+        "8C-proxy": {
+          "attainment": 1.0,
+          "pd_advantage": 1.0,
+          "n_slo": 3552
+        },
+        "4P+4D": {
+          "attainment": 0.9997184684684685,
+          "pd_advantage": 0.9997184684684685,
+          "n_slo": 3551
+        },
+        "6P+2D": {
+          "attainment": 1.0,
+          "pd_advantage": 1.0,
+          "n_slo": 3552
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  ]
+}

analysis/crossover/d2_o4096_goodput.json

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+{
+  "baseline": "8C-proxy",
+  "arms": {
+    "8C-proxy": {
+      "name": "8C-proxy",
+      "n_offered": 3552,
+      "n_success": 545,
+      "completion_rate": 0.15343468468468469,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 505.4139580530027,
+      "amplification": 1.6861665622961597,
+      "ttft": {
+        "count": 545,
+        "mean": 4.137136383750316,
+        "p50": 0.5702517530007754,
+        "p90": 1.6976309113961179,
+        "p99": 56.1814190310361
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 545,
+        "mean": 0.08390926873267023,
+        "p50": 0.08933810225128375,
+        "p90": 0.09449654152820693,
+        "p99": 0.10591519025133134
+      },
+      "e2e": {
+        "count": 545,
+        "mean": 347.7765141811284,
+        "p50": 366.3568219640001,
+        "p90": 388.1241692415934,
+        "p99": 435.2848098113155
+      }
+    },
+    "4P+4D": {
+      "name": "4P+4D",
+      "n_offered": 3552,
+      "n_success": 771,
+      "completion_rate": 0.2170608108108108,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 850.1328976760124,
+      "amplification": 2.8362209684341706,
+      "ttft": {
+        "count": 771,
+        "mean": 63.210636654403324,
+        "p50": 1.1097561890055658,
+        "p90": 179.64081536799495,
+        "p99": 186.67013871119852
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 771,
+        "mean": 0.05484690890217986,
+        "p50": 0.04795774376874187,
+        "p90": 0.08067800507863548,
+        "p99": 0.09099416300415113
+      },
+      "e2e": {
+        "count": 771,
+        "mean": 287.81779562259663,
+        "p50": 312.2160719559906,
+        "p90": 372.0004520520015,
+        "p99": 379.3279856524052
+      }
+    },
+    "6P+2D": {
+      "name": "6P+2D",
+      "n_offered": 3552,
+      "n_success": 627,
+      "completion_rate": 0.17652027027027026,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 867.8833550199925,
+      "amplification": 2.8954402028102515,
+      "ttft": {
+        "count": 627,
+        "mean": 179.58769048342904,
+        "p50": 238.1998468660022,
+        "p90": 378.29023678940143,
+        "p99": 385.40577973942356
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 627,
+        "mean": 0.04188420961205498,
+        "p50": 0.03654626756630041,
+        "p90": 0.06031132874202571,
+        "p99": 0.06738955674930582
+      },
+      "e2e": {
+        "count": 627,
+        "mean": 351.1066520824709,
+        "p50": 387.2650127700035,
+        "p90": 507.9008203571953,
+        "p99": 570.6463984230224
+      }
+    }
+  },
+  "slo_grid": [
+    {
+      "ttft_slo_s": 2.0,
+      "tpot_slo_s": 0.05,
+      "arms": {
+        "8C-proxy": {
+          "attainment": 0.0,
+          "pd_advantage": NaN,
+          "n_slo": 0
+        },
+        "4P+4D": {
+          "attainment": 0.05855855855855856,
+          "pd_advantage": NaN,
+          "n_slo": 208
+        },
+        "6P+2D": {
+          "attainment": 0.036036036036036036,
+          "pd_advantage": NaN,
+          "n_slo": 128
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  ]
+}

analysis/crossover/d2_o512_goodput.json

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+{
+  "baseline": "8C-proxy",
+  "arms": {
+    "8C-proxy": {
+      "name": "8C-proxy",
+      "n_offered": 3552,
+      "n_success": 3552,
+      "completion_rate": 1.0,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 304.97662343096454,
+      "amplification": 1.0174657357946404,
+      "ttft": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 0.16242270423816507,
+        "p50": 0.15836620499612764,
+        "p90": 0.17363918052287775,
+        "p99": 0.24847999344696287
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 0.013691483182659388,
+        "p50": 0.013865661168213087,
+        "p90": 0.015242900696529327,
+        "p99": 0.01626683903372128
+      },
+      "e2e": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 7.160272567887971,
+        "p50": 7.247483663493767,
+        "p90": 7.962273431208451,
+        "p99": 8.480892732607899
+      }
+    },
+    "4P+4D": {
+      "name": "4P+4D",
+      "n_offered": 3552,
+      "n_success": 3551,
+      "completion_rate": 0.9997184684684685,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 744.9637431279989,
+      "amplification": 2.4853546954349977,
+      "ttft": {
+        "count": 3551,
+        "mean": 0.2446379999283825,
+        "p50": 0.24067969399038702,
+        "p90": 0.2630795220611617,
+        "p99": 0.3426029055262916
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 3551,
+        "mean": 0.016916919575073883,
+        "p50": 0.016998299133030737,
+        "p90": 0.01775875886689886,
+        "p99": 0.018166751548973206
+      },
+      "e2e": {
+        "count": 3551,
+        "mean": 8.89104466149889,
+        "p50": 8.933106195996515,
+        "p90": 9.333998591057025,
+        "p99": 9.536390463996213
+      }
+    },
+    "6P+2D": {
+      "name": "6P+2D",
+      "n_offered": 3552,
+      "n_success": 3551,
+      "completion_rate": 0.9997184684684685,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 312.45468625507783,
+      "amplification": 1.0424141157985172,
+      "ttft": {
+        "count": 3551,
+        "mean": 0.36231219612768273,
+        "p50": 0.3462264990666881,
+        "p90": 0.4059687410481274,
+        "p99": 0.9837204645154998
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 3551,
+        "mean": 0.03268022218101953,
+        "p50": 0.03333031399418835,
+        "p90": 0.03557429400772957,
+        "p99": 0.038558618127279086
+      },
+      "e2e": {
+        "count": 3551,
+        "mean": 17.068018403084057,
+        "p50": 17.392655145958997,
+        "p90": 18.56302695896011,
+        "p99": 20.159411454980727
+      }
+    }
+  },
+  "slo_grid": [
+    {
+      "ttft_slo_s": 2.0,
+      "tpot_slo_s": 0.05,
+      "arms": {
+        "8C-proxy": {
+          "attainment": 1.0,
+          "pd_advantage": 1.0,
+          "n_slo": 3552
+        },
+        "4P+4D": {
+          "attainment": 0.9997184684684685,
+          "pd_advantage": 0.9997184684684685,
+          "n_slo": 3551
+        },
+        "6P+2D": {
+          "attainment": 0.9997184684684685,
+          "pd_advantage": 0.9997184684684685,
+          "n_slo": 3551
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  ]
+}

analysis/crossover/d2_o64_goodput.json

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+{
+  "baseline": "8C-proxy",
+  "arms": {
+    "8C-proxy": {
+      "name": "8C-proxy",
+      "n_offered": 3552,
+      "n_success": 3552,
+      "completion_rate": 1.0,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 300.21845804993063,
+      "amplification": 1.001591501940313,
+      "ttft": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 0.1369056966029782,
+        "p50": 0.13516780693316832,
+        "p90": 0.13835511771030723,
+        "p99": 0.15317223175661632
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 0.005430781936309906,
+        "p50": 0.005039893150780468,
+        "p90": 0.007063257358303028,
+        "p99": 0.0077793481296283135
+      },
+      "e2e": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 0.4793568905444592,
+        "p50": 0.45412574551301077,
+        "p90": 0.5810393166844734,
+        "p99": 0.6301419002050533
+      }
+    },
+    "4P+4D": {
+      "name": "4P+4D",
+      "n_offered": 3552,
+      "n_success": 3551,
+      "completion_rate": 0.9997184684684685,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 735.1059510430787,
+      "amplification": 2.452467041410379,
+      "ttft": {
+        "count": 3551,
+        "mean": 0.17374673821534295,
+        "p50": 0.17102365801110864,
+        "p90": 0.18273873499128968,
+        "p99": 0.24688138795318082
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 3551,
+        "mean": 0.005485491774206834,
+        "p50": 0.0053864502226046865,
+        "p90": 0.006091995366168992,
+        "p99": 0.007109403222178419
+      },
+      "e2e": {
+        "count": 3551,
+        "mean": 0.5196563635758822,
+        "p50": 0.5100997349945828,
+        "p90": 0.5655082209268585,
+        "p99": 0.6639982180204242
+      }
+    },
+    "6P+2D": {
+      "name": "6P+2D",
+      "n_offered": 3552,
+      "n_success": 3552,
+      "completion_rate": 1.0,
+      "offered_window_s": 299.74141899999995,
+      "offered_qps": 11.850214134070008,
+      "wall_clock_s": 300.38101644301787,
+      "amplification": 1.0021338307036503,
+      "ttft": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 0.18293367427152893,
+        "p50": 0.1822461549891159,
+        "p90": 0.1938482352765277,
+        "p99": 0.21272844232735222
+      },
+      "tpot": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 0.007192309629699456,
+        "p50": 0.007143509595484902,
+        "p90": 0.008732455453672816,
+        "p99": 0.009842920153335268
+      },
+      "e2e": {
+        "count": 3552,
+        "mean": 0.636424056327808,
+        "p50": 0.6324848984950222,
+        "p90": 0.7393875011475757,
+        "p99": 0.8261980937235056
+      }
+    }
+  },
+  "slo_grid": [
+    {
+      "ttft_slo_s": 2.0,
+      "tpot_slo_s": 0.05,
+      "arms": {
+        "8C-proxy": {
+          "attainment": 1.0,
+          "pd_advantage": 1.0,
+          "n_slo": 3552
+        },
+        "4P+4D": {
+          "attainment": 0.9997184684684685,
+          "pd_advantage": 0.9997184684684685,
+          "n_slo": 3551
+        },
+        "6P+2D": {
+          "attainment": 1.0,
+          "pd_advantage": 1.0,
+          "n_slo": 3552
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  ]
+}

microbench/fresh_setup/gen_synthetic_trace.py

@@ -161,11 +161,65 @@ def gen_multiturn(
     return rows
 
 
+def gen_regular(
+    *,
+    session_qps: float,
+    duration_s: float,
+    turns: int,
+    prefix_len: int,
+    delta_len: int,
+    output_len: int,
+    inter_turn_gap_s: float,
+    seed: int,
+) -> list[dict]:
+    """Maximally-regular multi-turn trace: every session identical, no skew.
+
+    Each session has a FIXED reused prefix of `prefix_len` tokens (its own,
+    established on turn 1) and every turn appends a FIXED `delta_len` of fresh
+    tokens. So per turn: input = prefix_len + delta_len (fixed), reuse ratio =
+    prefix_len/(prefix_len+delta_len) (fixed), actual new-prefill = delta_len
+    (fixed). Constant-interval session arrivals, fixed inter-turn gap, fixed
+    turn count -> zero session-size skew, so session-affinity cannot hot-pin.
+    This isolates the *structural* PD cost (per-turn full-context KV transfer +
+    P/D capacity split) from the skew/hot-pin artifact.
+    """
+    rows: list[dict] = []
+    next_hash = HASH_BASE
+    chat_id = 1
+    n_prefix = max(1, prefix_len // BLOCK_SIZE)
+    n_delta = max(1, delta_len // BLOCK_SIZE)
+    n_sessions = max(1, int(duration_s * session_qps))
+    for s in range(n_sessions):
+        start = s / session_qps
+        sid = f"r{s}"
+        prefix_blocks = list(range(next_hash, next_hash + n_prefix))
+        next_hash += n_prefix
+        prev = -1
+        for k in range(1, turns + 1):
+            delta_blocks = list(range(next_hash, next_hash + n_delta))
+            next_hash += n_delta
+            rows.append({
+                "chat_id": chat_id,
+                "parent_chat_id": prev,
+                "timestamp": round(start + (k - 1) * inter_turn_gap_s, 6),
+                "input_length": prefix_len + delta_len,
+                "output_length": output_len,
+                "type": "synthetic_regular",
+                "turn": k,
+                "hash_ids": prefix_blocks + delta_blocks,
+                "session_id": sid,
+            })
+            prev = chat_id
+            chat_id += 1
+    rows.sort(key=lambda r: r["timestamp"])
+    return rows
+
+
 def main() -> None:
     p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__,
                                 formatter_class=argparse.RawDescriptionHelpFormatter)
     p.add_argument("--out", type=Path, required=True, help="output trace JSONL")
-    p.add_argument("--mode", choices=["vanilla", "multiturn"], default="vanilla")
+    p.add_argument("--mode", choices=["vanilla", "multiturn", "regular"], default="vanilla")
     p.add_argument("--qps", type=float, help="vanilla: mean Poisson request rate; "
                    "multiturn: mean Poisson SESSION rate")
     p.add_argument("--duration-s", type=float, default=600.0, help="trace span (s)")
@@ -182,7 +236,14 @@ def main() -> None:
     p.add_argument("--new-user-tokens", type=int, default=256,
                    help="multiturn: fresh user tokens added each subsequent turn")
     p.add_argument("--inter-turn-gap-s", type=float, default=1.6,
-                   help="multiturn: mean think-time between turns")
+                   help="multiturn: mean think-time; regular: FIXED think-time")
+    # regular knobs
+    p.add_argument("--prefix-len", type=int, default=16384,
+                   help="regular: per-session fixed reused prefix length")
+    p.add_argument("--delta-len", type=int, default=512,
+                   help="regular: fixed fresh new-prefill tokens per turn")
+    p.add_argument("--turns", type=int, default=8,
+                   help="regular: fixed turns per session")
     args = p.parse_args()
 
     if args.mode == "vanilla":
@@ -194,6 +255,20 @@ def main() -> None:
         cfg = {"mode": "vanilla", "qps": args.qps, "duration_s": args.duration_s,
                "input_len": args.input_len, "output_len": args.output_len,
                "seed": args.seed, "reuse": "none"}
+    elif args.mode == "regular":
+        assert args.qps, "regular needs --qps (session rate)"
+        rows = gen_regular(
+            session_qps=args.qps, duration_s=args.duration_s, turns=args.turns,
+            prefix_len=args.prefix_len, delta_len=args.delta_len,
+            output_len=args.output_len, inter_turn_gap_s=args.inter_turn_gap_s,
+            seed=args.seed,
+        )
+        cfg = {"mode": "regular", "session_qps": args.qps,
+               "duration_s": args.duration_s, "turns": args.turns,
+               "prefix_len": args.prefix_len, "delta_len": args.delta_len,
+               "output_len": args.output_len, "inter_turn_gap_s": args.inter_turn_gap_s,
+               "reuse_ratio": args.prefix_len / (args.prefix_len + args.delta_len),
+               "seed": args.seed, "reuse": "fixed-intra-session"}
     else:
         assert args.qps, "multiturn needs --qps (session rate)"
         rows = gen_multiturn(