§3.1: add LMetric vs load_only design analysis (cache signal diluted by ×score)

Why the LMetric → load_only APC gap is only +3.3pp despite LMetric
explicitly being "cache-aware load routing":

  P = pending_prefill_tokens + (input_length - cache_hit)
  score = P × num_requests   <-- multiplicative

cache_hit appears only as a reduction inside P. Because score is
multiplicative in num_requests, a session-affinity instance whose
num_requests has climbed will lose argmin to a cold instance even
when cache_hit on the warm one is ~90%. Worked example:

  warm: P=2500, num_req=5 -> score 12500
  cold: P=10000, num_req=1 -> score 10000   <-- LMetric picks cold

  load_only 53.9% APC  (pure num_requests)
  LMetric   57.2%      +3.3pp (cache as additive cost term)
  sticky    77.7%     +23.8pp (cache as hard constraint)
  unified   78.7%     +24.8pp (cache as hard+soft hybrid)

Lesson worth stating explicitly in §3.1: cache awareness folded into
a multiplicative load cost-model is structurally insufficient. Affinity
must be a separate routing branch (sticky / unified hybrid), not a
correction term inside a load score.

PAPER_OUTLINE.md §3.1 gets the design analysis + the new APC table;
MEETING.md gets a one-paragraph version of the same point.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MEETING.md

@@ -41,6 +41,8 @@ L = Λ · N · W_turn(L)        # agentic, T_human≈0
 
 LMetric 56.9%、load_only 54.1% APC，远低于 79.6% 上界。23pp 缺口直接来自跨 instance 路由丢的 intra-session hit。
 
+注意 LMetric 比 load_only 只好 **+3.3pp**：LMetric 的 score = `(pending_prefill + input − cache_hit) × num_requests`，cache_hit 只作 cost-model 减项，但 score 是**乘性**的 —— 一个有 affinity 的 instance 因 num_requests 高被乘式吃掉 cache 收益，LMetric 仍然会选冷 instance。sticky 把 cache 作硬约束直接拉到 77.2%。**结论：cache-aware-load routing 不够 —— affinity 必须是独立路由路径，不能折叠进 load cost 里**。
+
 ### 静态 PD-disagg：D 侧 KV 容量墙
 
 ![](figs/f4b_pdsep_kv_wall.png)

PAPER_OUTLINE.md

@@ -123,6 +123,24 @@ dL/dε|_{ε=0} = L* / (1 − Λ · N · W'_turn(L*))
 
 Round-robin 和 load-aware routing（如 LMetric, OSDI'26）最大化 instance 利用率，但忽略 session affinity。**实测 APC 跌到 56.9%**（vs 上界 79.6%），23pp 的差距直接来自丢失的 intra-session cache hit。违反 §2.2。
 
+**为什么"cache-aware load routing"也不够 —— LMetric 的 cache 信号被乘性 score 稀释**。LMetric 的打分是
+
+```
+P = pending_prefill_tokens + (input_length - cache_hit)
+score = P × num_requests
+```
+
+cache_hit 只在 `P` 里作减项；而 `score` 是**乘性**的。一个 session affinity 的 instance 会因为持续接到 session 而 `num_requests` 升高，乘积把 cache 收益吃掉。例：8000 输入 token、暖 instance cache_hit = 7500 vs 冷 instance cache_hit = 0、pending_prefill 都是 2000、num_requests 分别 5 vs 1，则 LMetric score 暖 = `2500 × 5 = 12500`、冷 = `10000 × 1 = 10000`，**LMetric 选冷**，丢掉 ~90% cache。结果：
+
+| 策略 | APC | vs load_only | 设计点 |
+|---|---:|---:|---|
+| load_only | 53.9% | — | 纯负载 (`score = num_requests`) |
+| LMetric | 57.2% | **+3.3pp** | cache 作 cost-model 减项 |
+| sticky | 77.7% | **+23.8pp** | cache 作硬约束 |
+| unified | 78.7% | **+24.8pp** | cache 作硬+软偏好混合 |
+
+**`load_only → LMetric` 的 +3.3pp 几乎可忽略；`LMetric → sticky` 的 +20.5pp 才是 cache 信号被正确处理的回报**。Cache awareness 不能只作为 cost-model 的一项被吞掉 —— 必须作为**独立路由路径**（sticky / unified hybrid）。这是 §3.1 比"丢 locality"更具体的失败模式。
+
 ### §3.2 静态 PD-disaggregation 撞 D 侧 KV 墙
 
 静态把 instance 分成 P pool 和 D pool 对 chatbot 有效，对 agentic 失败：agentic 请求平均 33.6k token，需要 **3.3GB** KV；4D 方案下 p90 请求占 D 侧 KV pool **69%**，p99 直接 **溢出 138%**。结果：**TTFT p50 暴涨 62-72x**，成功率从 99.5% 跌至 **52-68%**。违反 §2.1（prefill-dominant + 长 context）。