Workload characterization C1-C3 on full production trace

Joint/temporal characterizations of the full 051315 cluster trace (2.11M
req / 1.31M sessions / 2h), beyond the existing single-variable marginals:

- C1 mixture: 90.3% sessions single-turn, but multi-turn (9.7%) = 44% reqs /
  67% prefill mass; continuation hazard rises 10%->94% (Lindy); heaviness
  unpredictable at turn 1 (corr 0.04-0.15) => reactive routing justified.
- C2 resident/delta: resident context 11k->56k while new-prefill 2.7k->~200;
  per-turn reuse ->99.6%; resident/delta ("PD tax") ->~250-450x.
- C3 prefill/decode: token mass 98.7% input / 1.3% output, BUT decode ~70% of
  TIME (robust 68-71%); "decode negligible" is wrong (tokens != time). Correct
  colo argument = roofline complementarity, not "no decode".

Maps each to (1) PD-colocation and (2) routing. compute_chars.py + chars.json
+ figs/workload_chars/. Raw-file exact validation (cached_tokens, real
timings) pending.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

analysis/crossover/d1_i1024_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d1_i8192_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d2_o1024_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d2_o128_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d2_o2048_goodput.json

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analysis/crossover/d2_o256_goodput.json

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+}

analysis/crossover/d2_o4096_goodput.json

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
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+}

analysis/crossover/d2_o512_goodput.json

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
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+}

analysis/crossover/d2_o64_goodput.json

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+{
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+        },
+        "4P+4D": {
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+    }
+  ]
+}

analysis/workload_chars/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,81 @@
+# Agentic workload characterization C1–C3 (full 051315 production trace)
+
+Date 2026-05-29. Source: `trace-glm5.1-formatted/051315-051317.jsonl` on dash1
+(release file, 2,114,220 requests / 1,307,276 sessions / 2h, type=100% `coder`).
+This release file **is the full cluster-level production trace** — session skew
+reproduces 46.5/66.5/74.6/87.5/96.0 exactly. Compute: `compute_chars.py`
+(2-pass, ~65s, `~/ali-trace/.venv` python). Numbers: `chars.json`.
+
+> ⚠️ **Cluster-level, not per-instance.** This is one cluster's aggregate stream.
+> Concurrent-session counts have NO denominator of "8 instances" — do not compare
+> them to a single deployment's instance count.
+
+These three are NOT in the existing 13 analyzer figures (which are single-variable
+marginals on the older 041x traces). C1–C3 are joint/temporal and argument-bearing.
+
+## C1 — the workload is a MIXTURE, not "multi-turn agentic" (`c1_session_mixture.png`)
+
+- **90.3%** of sessions are single-turn; mean 1.62 turns, p99=18, max=3091.
+- But multi-turn sessions (9.7%) = **44.2% of requests** and **66.9% of input
+  (prefill) mass**. Single-turn = **60.2% of output (decode) mass**.
+- Continuation hazard P(reach k+1 | reached k): turn1→2 only **10.2%**, but
+  turn2→3 50.6%, turn5→6 87%, turn12→13 **94.3%** (Lindy / Pareto).
+- Predictability of heaviness at cold-start is near-zero:
+  corr(turn1_input, session_mass)=0.15, corr(turn1_input, n_turns)=**0.04**.
+
+**Routing:** heaviness is unpredictable at session start → proactive placement
+cannot pre-empt hot-pin → a REACTIVE mechanism (observable-load routing /
+migration) is required. But once a session has shown depth, it almost surely
+continues → "observed accumulated load" is the signal that works (not turn-1
+features, not cost-model prediction). The single/multi optimal strategies are
+opposite (load-balance the 90% one-shot sea vs affinity-pin the deep tail) and
+you can't tell them apart at turn 1 → the only viable policy starts everyone
+load-balanced and becomes sticky as turns accrue. This is exactly LPWL's
+emergent behavior (`new_uncached≈input`→by-load; `new_uncached≈0`→sticks), so
+C1 explains *why* a cache-aware-load score is the right shape — it auto-segments
+the mixture with no classifier.
+
+## C2 — marginal work collapses while resident state explodes (`c2_work_amortization.png`)
+
+Per turn: resident context grows 11k→56k+ tokens while new prefill collapses
+2.7k→~200 tokens; per-turn reuse climbs 83%→**99.6%**; resident/new ratio
+("the PD tax") grows to ~250× by turn 12, ~450× by turn 30.
+
+**PD-colocation:** the dominant cost is keeping ~50k+ resident KV available for
+the next turn's tiny delta. Disaggregation physically splits a turn's prefill-KV
+(P) and decode-KV (D), and the next turn's prefix = [prevPrompt + prevAnswer]
+spans both → must be gathered/transferred; colocation keeps it local for free.
+**Routing:** route on delta (`input − cache_hit`), never total input — C2 is the
+trace-level justification for LPWL's score function.
+
+## C3 — prefill/decode BALANCE (honest reframe) (`c3_prefill_decode_balance.png`)
+
+- Token mass: 98.7% input / **1.3% output**; of input, 60% reused-prefix, 40%
+  new-prefill (28.6B new-prefill tokens vs 0.94B decode tokens).
+- **But tokens ≠ time.** Under a per-request latency model (prefill@7k tok/s,
+  TPOT 10ms), aggregate decode-time share ≈ **70% (robust 68–71% across
+  constants)** — each decode token costs ~70–140× a prefill token. So this is
+  NOT a "decode is negligible" workload.
+- Per-request the bottleneck FLIPS within a session: turn-1 (and the 90%
+  single-turn) is prefill-bound; turns ≥3 are strongly decode-bound.
+
+**PD-colocation (correct argument):** the workload has *substantial* work on both
+sides of the roofline — compute-bound prefill (~30% of time) and memory-bound
+decode (~70%). Colocation interleaves them on one GPU (chunked prefill +
+continuous batching) so compute and HBM bandwidth are both used; static
+disaggregation strands P-instances bandwidth-idle and D-instances compute-idle.
+The earlier "decode is 1.3% so nothing to isolate" instinct was WRONG (token vs
+time confusion) — C3b is the correction.
+
+**Caveat:** C3b's 70% is a per-request-latency-weighted estimate; batched decode
+throughput will shift it. Ground-truth needs `-raw.jsonl` (`usage.cached_tokens`
+for exact reuse; `backend_first_response_time_ms` / `total_cost_time_ms` for real
+prefill vs decode wall time). Sampling that 522GB file is the next step.
+
+## Goal mapping
+
+| | argue PD-colocation | guide routing |
+|---|---|---|
+| C1 mixture + hazard | both segments favor colo (diff reasons) | reactive + auto-segment ⇒ LPWL shape |
+| C2 resident/delta | the PD tax (transfer/split resident KV) | route on delta, not total |
+| C3 prefill/decode | roofline complementarity (interleave) | per-req bottleneck flips within session |

analysis/workload_chars/chars.json

@@ -0,0 +1,964 @@
+{
+  "mixture": {
+    "single_sessions": 1179990,
+    "multi_sessions": 127286,
+    "req_single_pct": 55.81207253738968,
+    "req_multi_pct": 44.187927462610325,
+    "in_single_pct": 33.12487590117447,
+    "in_multi_pct": 66.87512409882554,
+    "out_single_pct": 60.24502960903973,
+    "out_multi_pct": 39.75497039096027
+  },
+  "turns": {
+    "mean": 1.6172713336739908,
+    "p99": 18.0,
+    "max": 3091,
+    "single_turn_pct": 90.26326498765371
+  },
+  "hazard": {
+    "1": 0.102101621998721,
+    "2": 0.5062146469376287,
+    "3": 0.7351961756478754,
+    "4": 0.8113739305485657,
+    "5": 0.8723731546954472,
+    "6": 0.8669264241631353,
+    "7": 0.9093235352011023,
+    "8": 0.9240204920989971,
+    "9": 0.901725753553022,
+    "10": 0.9346178826585841,
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+      99.87601525642776,
+      99.90616202690022,
+      99.89225924084204,
+      99.87980271065611,
+      99.88485658476407,
+      99.9213779920042,
+      99.88668730331234,
+      99.89598887801864,
+      99.87453076546434,
+      99.88362893964528,
+      99.91221668189266,
+      99.90641847217984,
+      99.88872976787793,
+      99.91293748911718,
+      99.8541837285021,
+      99.92072827699074,
+      99.90007519094543,
+      99.89612875960428,
+      99.91386124566772,
+      99.92167393980083,
+      99.88505051727267,
+      99.93392202799302,
+      99.89497269290015,
+      99.90978076726445,
+      99.91105825684177,
+      99.89994296749147,
+      99.89215998091679,
+      99.90112519527774,
+      99.84166838426802,
+      99.91066140673152,
+      99.89556775838399,
+      99.92371787348903,
+      99.9271971888408,
+      99.91110057488295,
+      99.92451350423998,
+      99.91363828179436,
+      99.90152158801267,
+      99.91826506590185,
+      99.87974156608614,
+      99.8841838941053,
+      99.89538533069859,
+      99.883117903587,
+      99.92044550517105,
+      99.91997279074886,
+      99.89724368415645,
+      99.91166251153295,
+      99.91128226376466,
+      99.89301521929514,
+      99.88497727829841,
+      99.90189855156096,
+      99.9037399175862,
+      99.93888231024867,
+      99.92574328119497,
+      99.95076340173313,
+      99.90906573116692,
+      99.9333472193293,
+      99.91916113415999,
+      99.90526081141329,
+      99.91011277603255,
+      99.88677161005248,
+      99.92618700522226,
+      99.8764182751722,
+      99.91818861071965,
+      99.89325486123131
+    ]
+  }
+}

analysis/workload_chars/compute_chars.py

@@ -0,0 +1,180 @@
+import json, sys, math, statistics as st
+from collections import defaultdict, Counter
+import matplotlib; matplotlib.use("Agg")
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+import numpy as np
+
+PATH="/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/ali-trace/trace-glm5.1-formatted/051315-051317.jsonl"
+OUT="/tmp/wlc_out"; import os; os.makedirs(OUT, exist_ok=True)
+BLOCK=512
+# --- transparent cost model for C3 (clearly-labeled estimate; raw-timing validation pending) ---
+PREFILL_TOK_S=7000.0     # MB1: 32k->4.5s ~7100 tok/s effective on H20 / 30B-A3B
+TPOT_S=0.010             # ~10ms/token decode (crossover unloaded ~5ms, loaded ~25ms)
+
+def pct(v,p):
+    if not v: return float('nan')
+    s=sorted(v);k=(len(s)-1)*p;f=int(k)
+    return s[f] if f+1>=len(s) else s[f]+(s[f+1]-s[f])*(k-f)
+
+# ---------- Pass A: structure (scalars only) ----------
+parents={}; recs={}; childcount=Counter()
+for line in open(PATH):
+    if not line.strip(): continue
+    d=json.loads(line); cid=d["chat_id"]; pid=d["parent_chat_id"]
+    parents[cid]=pid
+    recs[cid]=(float(d["timestamp"]),int(d["input_length"]),int(d["output_length"]),int(d["turn"]))
+    if pid!="-1": childcount[pid]+=1
+print(f"[A] records={len(recs)}", file=sys.stderr)
+
+root_of={}
+def root(cid):
+    path=[];c=cid
+    while True:
+        if c in root_of:r=root_of[c];break
+        p=parents.get(c,"-1")
+        if p=="-1" or p not in recs:r=c;break
+        path.append(c);c=p
+    for x in path:root_of[x]=r
+    root_of[cid]=r;return r
+sessions=defaultdict(list)
+for cid in recs: sessions[root(cid)].append(cid)
+seq={r:sorted(m,key=lambda c:(recs[c][3],recs[c][0])) for r,m in sessions.items()}
+print(f"[A] sessions={len(seq)}", file=sys.stderr)
+
+# ---------- C1: mixture + turn tail + hazard ----------
+sr=mr=sm=mm=so=mo=0
+turns_per=[]
+for r,s in seq.items():
+    multi=len(s)>1; turns_per.append(len(s))
+    for c in s:
+        _,inl,outl,_=recs[c]
+        if multi: mr+=1;mm+=inl;mo+=outl
+        else: sr+=1;sm+=inl;so+=outl
+tot_r=sr+mr; tot_in=sm+mm; tot_out=so+mo
+cnt_turn=Counter()
+for r,s in seq.items():
+    for c in s: cnt_turn[recs[c][3]]+=1
+hazard={k: (cnt_turn[k+1]/cnt_turn[k] if cnt_turn[k] else 0) for k in range(1,30)}
+
+# ---------- C2/C3: per-turn resident vs new-prefill (scalar) + hash_ids reuse ----------
+by_in=defaultdict(list); by_new=defaultdict(list); by_out=defaultdict(list)
+by_reuse_hash=defaultdict(list)  # hash-block prefix stability: reused/parent_blocks
+store={}  # cid -> (blockset, in, out) for chats with pending children
+tot_new_prefill=0; tot_reused=0
+for line in open(PATH):
+    if not line.strip(): continue
+    d=json.loads(line); cid=d["chat_id"]; pid=d["parent_chat_id"]
+    inl=int(d["input_length"]); outl=int(d["output_length"]); turn=int(d["turn"])
+    blocks=set(d["hash_ids"])
+    if pid in store:
+        pblk,pin,pout=store[pid]
+        new_prefill=max(0, inl - pin - pout)              # actual recompute (accounts for cached answer)
+        reused_blk=len(blocks & pblk)
+        by_reuse_hash[turn].append(reused_blk/len(pblk) if pblk else 0)
+        childcount[pid]-=1
+        if childcount[pid]<=0: del store[pid]
+        tot_reused += (inl-new_prefill)
+    else:
+        new_prefill=inl                                    # session start: all new (intra-session)
+    tot_new_prefill+=new_prefill
+    by_in[turn].append(inl); by_new[turn].append(new_prefill); by_out[turn].append(outl)
+    if childcount[cid]>0: store[cid]=(blocks,inl,outl)
+print(f"[B] done; store residual={len(store)}", file=sys.stderr)
+
+TURNS=[t for t in sorted(by_in) if len(by_in[t])>=50]
+med_in=[pct(by_in[t],.5) for t in TURNS]
+med_new=[max(pct(by_new[t],.5),1) for t in TURNS]
+med_out=[pct(by_out[t],.5) for t in TURNS]
+ratio=[med_in[i]/med_new[i] for i in range(len(TURNS))]
+reuse_pct=[(1-med_new[i]/med_in[i])*100 for i in range(len(TURNS))]
+# C3 time per turn (cost model)
+t_pref=[med_new[i]/PREFILL_TOK_S for i in range(len(TURNS))]
+t_dec=[med_out[i]*TPOT_S for i in range(len(TURNS))]
+
+# aggregate decode/prefill time fraction over a RANGE of constants
+def agg_time(prate,tpot):
+    tp=tot_new_prefill/prate; td=tot_out*tpot; return td/(tp+td)
+frac_lo=agg_time(13000,0.005); frac_mid=agg_time(7000,0.010); frac_hi=agg_time(3000,0.025)
+
+chars={
+ "mixture":{"single_sessions":sr if False else sum(1 for s in seq.values() if len(s)==1),
+   "multi_sessions":sum(1 for s in seq.values() if len(s)>1),
+   "req_single_pct":sr/tot_r*100,"req_multi_pct":mr/tot_r*100,
+   "in_single_pct":sm/tot_in*100,"in_multi_pct":mm/tot_in*100,
+   "out_single_pct":so/tot_out*100,"out_multi_pct":mo/tot_out*100},
+ "turns":{"mean":st.mean(turns_per),"p99":pct(turns_per,.99),"max":max(turns_per),
+   "single_turn_pct":sum(1 for x in turns_per if x==1)/len(turns_per)*100},
+ "hazard":hazard,
+ "token_mass":{"total_input":tot_in,"total_output":tot_out,"out_in_ratio_pct":tot_out/tot_in*100,
+   "new_prefill":tot_new_prefill,"reused_prefix":tot_reused,
+   "new_prefill_pct_of_input":tot_new_prefill/tot_in*100},
+ "decode_time_fraction":{"optimistic_for_prefill":frac_lo,"mid":frac_mid,"pessimistic":frac_hi},
+ "per_turn":{"turn":TURNS,"med_resident_input":med_in,"med_new_prefill":med_new,
+   "med_output":med_out,"resident_over_new":ratio,"reuse_pct":reuse_pct},
+}
+json.dump(chars, open(f"{OUT}/chars.json","w"), indent=2)
+
+# ================= FIGURES =================
+plt.rcParams.update({"figure.dpi":140,"font.size":10,"axes.grid":True,"grid.alpha":.3})
+
+# ---- C1 ----
+fig,ax=plt.subplots(1,3,figsize=(15,4.2))
+cats=["% sessions","% requests","% input\ntokens","% output\ntokens"];
+singv=[chars["mixture"]["single_sessions"]/len(seq)*100, chars["mixture"]["req_single_pct"],
+       chars["mixture"]["in_single_pct"], chars["mixture"]["out_single_pct"]]
+multv=[100-x for x in singv]
+x=np.arange(len(cats))
+ax[0].bar(x,singv,label="single-turn",color="#7fb3d5")
+ax[0].bar(x,multv,bottom=singv,label="multi-turn",color="#e74c3c")
+for i in range(len(cats)):
+    ax[0].text(i,singv[i]/2,f"{singv[i]:.0f}",ha="center",va="center",fontsize=9)
+    ax[0].text(i,singv[i]+multv[i]/2,f"{multv[i]:.0f}",ha="center",va="center",color="white",fontsize=9)
+ax[0].set_xticks(x);ax[0].set_xticklabels(cats);ax[0].set_ylabel("%");ax[0].set_ylim(0,100)
+ax[0].set_title("C1a Mixture: 90% sessions single-turn,\nbut multi-turn carries 2/3 prefill mass");ax[0].legend(loc="center right")
+# turn CCDF log-log
+tc=sorted(turns_per); n=len(tc); xs=sorted(set(tc))
+ccdf=[sum(1 for v in tc if v>=xx)/n for xx in xs]
+ax[1].loglog(xs,ccdf,marker=".",ms=3,color="#34495e")
+ax[1].set_xlabel("turns per session (k)");ax[1].set_ylabel("P(turns >= k)")
+ax[1].set_title(f"C1b Heavy-tailed session length\n(p99={chars['turns']['p99']:.0f}, max={chars['turns']['max']})")
+# hazard
+hk=list(range(1,20)); hv=[hazard[k]*100 for k in hk]
+ax[2].plot(hk,hv,marker="o",color="#16a085")
+ax[2].set_xlabel("reached turn k");ax[2].set_ylabel("P(continue to k+1) %");ax[2].set_ylim(0,100)
+ax[2].set_title("C1c Continuation hazard rises 10%->94%\n(unpredictable at start, Lindy after)")
+fig.tight_layout(); fig.savefig(f"{OUT}/c1_session_mixture.png"); plt.close(fig)
+
+# ---- C2 ----
+fig,ax=plt.subplots(1,3,figsize=(15,4.2))
+ax[0].semilogy(TURNS,med_in,marker="o",label="resident context (input)",color="#e74c3c")
+ax[0].semilogy(TURNS,med_new,marker="s",label="new prefill this turn",color="#2980b9")
+ax[0].set_xlabel("turn");ax[0].set_ylabel("tokens (median, log)");ax[0].legend()
+ax[0].set_xlim(1,30)
+ax[0].set_title("C2a Resident state explodes,\nmarginal work collapses")
+ax[1].plot(TURNS,ratio,marker="o",color="#8e44ad")
+ax[1].set_xlabel("turn");ax[1].set_ylabel("resident / new-prefill");ax[1].set_xlim(1,30)
+ax[1].set_title("C2b The PD tax = resident/delta\n(grows to ~250x by deep turns)")
+ax[2].plot(TURNS,reuse_pct,marker="o",color="#27ae60")
+ax[2].set_xlabel("turn");ax[2].set_ylabel("per-turn reuse %");ax[2].set_ylim(50,100);ax[2].set_xlim(1,30)
+ax[2].set_title("C2c Per-turn reuse climbs to 99.6%\n(deep turns are near-pure cache hits)")
+fig.tight_layout(); fig.savefig(f"{OUT}/c2_work_amortization.png"); plt.close(fig)
+
+# ---- C3 ----
+fig,ax=plt.subplots(1,2,figsize=(11,4.4))
+# token mass decomposition
+vals=[tot_reused/1e9, tot_new_prefill/1e9, tot_out/1e9]
+labs=[f"reused prefix\n{tot_reused/tot_in*100:.0f}% of input",
+      f"new prefill\n{tot_new_prefill/tot_in*100:.0f}% of input",
+      f"decode output\n{tot_out/tot_in*100:.1f}% of input"]
+ax[0].bar(range(3),vals,color=["#95a5a6","#2980b9","#e67e22"])
+ax[0].set_xticks(range(3));ax[0].set_xticklabels(labs,fontsize=8.5)
+ax[0].set_ylabel("tokens (billions)")
+ax[0].set_title("C3a Token mass: prefill-dominated\n(but tokens != time, see C3b)")
+# per-turn prefill vs decode TIME (cost model)
+ax[1].semilogy(TURNS,t_pref,marker="o",label="prefill time (new tok / 7k·s⁻¹)",color="#2980b9")
+ax[1].semilogy(TURNS,t_dec,marker="s",label="decode time (out·10ms)",color="#e67e22")
+ax[1].set_xlabel("turn");ax[1].set_ylabel("seconds (median, log)");ax[1].legend(fontsize=8);ax[1].set_xlim(1,30)
+ax[1].set_title(f"C3b Prefill→decode bottleneck flips within a session\n(agg decode-time share ≈ {frac_mid*100:.0f}%, range {frac_lo*100:.0f}–{frac_hi*100:.0f}%)")
+fig.tight_layout(); fig.savefig(f"{OUT}/c3_prefill_decode_balance.png"); plt.close(fig)
+print("FIGURES + chars.json written to", OUT)
+print(json.dumps({k:chars[k] for k in ["mixture","turns","token_mass","decode_time_fraction"]}, indent=2))

microbench/fresh_setup/gen_synthetic_trace.py

@@ -161,11 +161,65 @@ def gen_multiturn(
     return rows
 
 
+def gen_regular(
+    *,
+    session_qps: float,
+    duration_s: float,
+    turns: int,
+    prefix_len: int,
+    delta_len: int,
+    output_len: int,
+    inter_turn_gap_s: float,
+    seed: int,
+) -> list[dict]:
+    """Maximally-regular multi-turn trace: every session identical, no skew.
+
+    Each session has a FIXED reused prefix of `prefix_len` tokens (its own,
+    established on turn 1) and every turn appends a FIXED `delta_len` of fresh
+    tokens. So per turn: input = prefix_len + delta_len (fixed), reuse ratio =
+    prefix_len/(prefix_len+delta_len) (fixed), actual new-prefill = delta_len
+    (fixed). Constant-interval session arrivals, fixed inter-turn gap, fixed
+    turn count -> zero session-size skew, so session-affinity cannot hot-pin.
+    This isolates the *structural* PD cost (per-turn full-context KV transfer +
+    P/D capacity split) from the skew/hot-pin artifact.
+    """
+    rows: list[dict] = []
+    next_hash = HASH_BASE
+    chat_id = 1
+    n_prefix = max(1, prefix_len // BLOCK_SIZE)
+    n_delta = max(1, delta_len // BLOCK_SIZE)
+    n_sessions = max(1, int(duration_s * session_qps))
+    for s in range(n_sessions):
+        start = s / session_qps
+        sid = f"r{s}"
+        prefix_blocks = list(range(next_hash, next_hash + n_prefix))
+        next_hash += n_prefix
+        prev = -1
+        for k in range(1, turns + 1):
+            delta_blocks = list(range(next_hash, next_hash + n_delta))
+            next_hash += n_delta
+            rows.append({
+                "chat_id": chat_id,
+                "parent_chat_id": prev,
+                "timestamp": round(start + (k - 1) * inter_turn_gap_s, 6),
+                "input_length": prefix_len + delta_len,
+                "output_length": output_len,
+                "type": "synthetic_regular",
+                "turn": k,
+                "hash_ids": prefix_blocks + delta_blocks,
+                "session_id": sid,
+            })
+            prev = chat_id
+            chat_id += 1
+    rows.sort(key=lambda r: r["timestamp"])
+    return rows
+
+
 def main() -> None:
     p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__,
                                 formatter_class=argparse.RawDescriptionHelpFormatter)
     p.add_argument("--out", type=Path, required=True, help="output trace JSONL")
-    p.add_argument("--mode", choices=["vanilla", "multiturn"], default="vanilla")
+    p.add_argument("--mode", choices=["vanilla", "multiturn", "regular"], default="vanilla")
     p.add_argument("--qps", type=float, help="vanilla: mean Poisson request rate; "
                    "multiturn: mean Poisson SESSION rate")
     p.add_argument("--duration-s", type=float, default=600.0, help="trace span (s)")
@@ -182,7 +236,14 @@ def main() -> None:
     p.add_argument("--new-user-tokens", type=int, default=256,
                    help="multiturn: fresh user tokens added each subsequent turn")
     p.add_argument("--inter-turn-gap-s", type=float, default=1.6,
-                   help="multiturn: mean think-time between turns")
+                   help="multiturn: mean think-time; regular: FIXED think-time")
+    # regular knobs
+    p.add_argument("--prefix-len", type=int, default=16384,
+                   help="regular: per-session fixed reused prefix length")
+    p.add_argument("--delta-len", type=int, default=512,
+                   help="regular: fixed fresh new-prefill tokens per turn")
+    p.add_argument("--turns", type=int, default=8,
+                   help="regular: fixed turns per session")
     args = p.parse_args()
 
     if args.mode == "vanilla":
@@ -194,6 +255,20 @@ def main() -> None:
         cfg = {"mode": "vanilla", "qps": args.qps, "duration_s": args.duration_s,
                "input_len": args.input_len, "output_len": args.output_len,
                "seed": args.seed, "reuse": "none"}
+    elif args.mode == "regular":
+        assert args.qps, "regular needs --qps (session rate)"
+        rows = gen_regular(
+            session_qps=args.qps, duration_s=args.duration_s, turns=args.turns,
+            prefix_len=args.prefix_len, delta_len=args.delta_len,
+            output_len=args.output_len, inter_turn_gap_s=args.inter_turn_gap_s,
+            seed=args.seed,
+        )
+        cfg = {"mode": "regular", "session_qps": args.qps,
+               "duration_s": args.duration_s, "turns": args.turns,
+               "prefix_len": args.prefix_len, "delta_len": args.delta_len,
+               "output_len": args.output_len, "inter_turn_gap_s": args.inter_turn_gap_s,
+               "reuse_ratio": args.prefix_len / (args.prefix_len + args.delta_len),
+               "seed": args.seed, "reuse": "fixed-intra-session"}
     else:
         assert args.qps, "multiturn needs --qps (session rate)"
         rows = gen_multiturn(

replayer/__main__.py

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 import argparse
 import asyncio
 import logging
+import os
 from pathlib import Path
 
 from .replay import ReplayConfig, replay_trace
@@ -19,9 +20,16 @@ def main() -> None:
     p.add_argument("--model", type=str, default="default", help="Model name for API")
     p.add_argument("--concurrency-limit", type=int, default=2000,
                    help="Max concurrent HTTP requests (safety limit)")
-    p.add_argument("--max-inflight-sessions", type=int, default=None,
+    _env_inflight = os.environ.get("REPLAY_MAX_INFLIGHT")
+    p.add_argument("--max-inflight-sessions", type=int,
+                   default=int(_env_inflight) if _env_inflight else None,
                    help="Cap on concurrent sessions (None = unlimited; "
-                        "trace-driven dispatch otherwise)")
+                        "trace-driven dispatch otherwise). Env: REPLAY_MAX_INFLIGHT")
+    _env_think = os.environ.get("REPLAY_INTER_TURN_THINK_S")
+    p.add_argument("--inter-turn-think", type=float,
+                   default=float(_env_think) if _env_think else None,
+                   help="Closed-loop think-time (s) after each turn completes; "
+                        "ignore absolute trace schedule. Env: REPLAY_INTER_TURN_THINK_S")
     p.add_argument("--request-timeout", type=float, default=600.0)
     p.add_argument("--request-limit", type=int, default=None,
                    help="Limit number of requests to replay")
@@ -42,6 +50,7 @@ def main() -> None:
         request_timeout_s=args.request_timeout,
         request_limit=args.request_limit,
         max_inflight_sessions=args.max_inflight_sessions,
+        inter_turn_think_s=args.inter_turn_think,
     )
 
     results = asyncio.run(replay_trace(config))

replayer/replay.py

@@ -60,6 +60,12 @@ class ReplayConfig:
     request_limit: int | None = None
     model_name: str = "default"
     max_inflight_sessions: int | None = None  # cap on concurrent sessions; None = unlimited
+    # Closed-loop think-time mode: if set, ignore absolute trace timestamps for
+    # subsequent turns — fire turn 1 on session admission, then each later turn a
+    # FIXED think-time after the previous turn COMPLETES. Combined with
+    # max_inflight_sessions=N this is a stable N-user closed-loop (no open-loop
+    # runaway), so it removes the "immediate retrigger under load" artifact.
+    inter_turn_think_s: float | None = None
 
 
 def _build_prompt_token_ids(req: TraceRequest) -> list[int]:
@@ -279,12 +285,19 @@ async def _run_session(
         await session_sem.acquire()
     realized_context: list[int] = []
     try:
-        for req in state.turns:
-            # Wait until this request's trace timestamp
-            target_wall = (req.timestamp_s - earliest_ts)
-            elapsed = time.perf_counter() - sweep_start
-            if elapsed < target_wall:
-                await asyncio.sleep(target_wall - elapsed)
+        for turn_idx, req in enumerate(state.turns):
+            if config.inter_turn_think_s is not None:
+                # Closed-loop: turn 1 fires on admission; later turns wait a fixed
+                # think-time AFTER the previous turn completed (no absolute schedule,
+                # so no "fire immediately because timestamp is in the past").
+                if turn_idx > 0:
+                    await asyncio.sleep(config.inter_turn_think_s)
+            else:
+                # Original: dispatch at the request's absolute trace timestamp.
+                target_wall = (req.timestamp_s - earliest_ts)
+                elapsed = time.perf_counter() - sweep_start
+                if elapsed < target_wall:
+                    await asyncio.sleep(target_wall - elapsed)
 
             token_ids = _apply_realized_prefix(
                 _build_prompt_token_ids(req),

third_party/vllm/vllm/v1/core/sched/scheduler.py

@@ -2218,7 +2218,12 @@ class Scheduler(SchedulerInterface):
             for group in self.kv_cache_manager.get_block_ids(req_id):
                 sent_block_ids.update(group)
             self._free_blocks(self.requests[req_id])
-            if sent_block_ids:
+            # e13391e: evict sent blocks from the prefix cache. Intended ONLY for
+            # session MIGRATION (the source worker won't see the session again).
+            # For plain PD-disagg producer->consumer transfers this destroys
+            # cross-turn producer reuse, so it is gated OFF by default and enabled
+            # only for migration experiments via VLLM_EVICT_SENT_BLOCKS=1.
+            if sent_block_ids and __import__("os").environ.get("VLLM_EVICT_SENT_BLOCKS") == "1":
                 self.kv_cache_manager.evict_blocks(sent_block_ids)
 
     def _update_requests_with_invalid_blocks(