# Intervention-response v1 prospective-repeat confirmation

Status: **FROZEN AFTER PHASE-6 V0 FAILURE AND BEFORE P1 RESPONSE ANALYSIS**.

Date: 2026-07-14 (Asia/Singapore).

## Why this is a new confirmation, not a relaxed V0

Phase-6 V0 failed its frozen global response gate.  Its 29 same-config
confirmations were triggered after disputed outcomes, and the resulting noise
sample contains extreme trajectory divergence by construction.  V0 remains
failed and its thresholds are unchanged.

The already-completed P1 campaign supplies a distinct test: three
prospectively scheduled, disjoint repeat bands for every cell/load.  TP1 and
TP4 use identical offered loads and exact request-order hashes across their MNS
endpoints.  V1 asks whether an MNS response is identifiable against this
prospective workload-repeat noise, and whether that response predicts action
efficacy beyond exact external prefix outcomes.

P1 is now development data.  No result here is held-out or paper-facing.

## Frozen pairs

- Action pairs: TP1 `MNS 8 -> 64` and TP4 `MNS 16 -> 64`, at low/high load and
  repeat 1/2/3.  Endpoints must have identical TP, offered rate, repeat role,
  and request-order hash. Expected `n=12`.
- Repeat-noise pairs: consecutive pre-arranged repeat bands within each of six
  cells and low/high load: `rep1 -> rep2`, `rep2 -> rep3`. Expected `n=24`.
  Repeat bands intentionally contain different requests and therefore include
  workload-sampling noise rather than pretending to be identical trials.
  Adjacent differences share the middle run; the gate uses their empirical
  magnitude only and does not treat the 24 differences as independent samples
  for a p-value or confidence interval.
- Prefix horizons: 5 and 10 seconds. Exact monotonic request completion times
  and the same Layer-1 intervals are used.

## Frozen gates

The response-identifiability thresholds are exactly the Phase-6 V0 thresholds:
75% sign consistency, 2x median effect/repeat noise, and at least 50% of action
deltas above repeat absolute p95. At least two response features must qualify
at both horizons.

Action efficacy is one only for an infeasible-to-feasible full-run transition.
The 12 action pairs must contain at least four examples of each class.

For decision relevance, each individual external-outcome response feature and
each individual telemetry-response feature is evaluated by leave-one-repeat-
band-out threshold fitting. This intentionally avoids a multivariate model on
12 examples. At least one telemetry feature must, at both horizons:

1. reach balanced accuracy at least 0.75; and
2. exceed the best external-outcome response feature by at least 0.15.

Only if data validity, response identifiability, and incremental decision
relevance all pass does V1 open a newly registered matched GPU pilot. No
threshold or feature is changed after observing V1.
