# Qwen235 Fixed-PD state diagnosis

**Verdict:** Exact real state composition flips Frontier to the correct TP4 winner; the ranking error is caused by closed-loop state/composition mismatch, not a conditional stage reversal.

| Config | Real Running proxy mean | Sim decode batch mean | Proxy coverage |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| tp4_ep1_mns64 | 4.667 | 13.537 | 100.0% |
| tp8_ep8_mns64 | 12.238 | 18.938 | 100.0% |

| Config | Real exact decode batch mean | Real token-weighted iteration ms | Matched simulator ms | Exact coverage |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| tp4_ep1_mns64 | 3.890 | 18.4710 | 34.2575 | 100.0% |
| tp8_ep8_mns64 | 10.921 | 27.5887 | 45.1603 | 100.0% |

## Frontier internal component contrast over its own executed composition

Decode-token-weighted over both pure-decode and mixed prefill/decode steps.

| Component | TP8 - TP4 (ms/decoded token step) |
|---|---:|
| moe_compute | -32.4544 |
| total | -20.0663 |
| attention | -7.4619 |
| tp_dp_communication | -6.5711 |
| ep_communication | +6.2354 |
| moe_routing | -0.2862 |
| dense_mlp_compute | -0.1231 |
| pipeline_communication | +0.0000 |
| runtime_overhead | +0.0000 |

## Frontier component contrast at exact real token composition

Positive means TP8 slower; negative means Frontier gives TP8 an advantage.

| Component | TP8 - TP4 (ms/step) |
|---|---:|
| total | +10.9028 |
| ep_communication | +6.5355 |
| tp_dp_communication | -6.4718 |
| attention | -2.1304 |
| moe_compute | -1.9774 |
| moe_routing | +0.1384 |
| dense_mlp_compute | -0.0308 |
| pipeline_communication | +0.0000 |
| runtime_overhead | +0.0000 |

## Interpretation boundary

- Real observed TPOT contrast: +6.9500 ms/token.
- Real exact-iteration contrast: +9.1177 ms/decode-token-weighted step.
- vLLM 10-second Running is active requests, not per-iteration decode batch; context lengths and graph buckets are unavailable in frozen logs.
- Frontier state outputs have no direct graph bucket/padding/launch-overhead field; graph effects remain folded into predictors.
- For TP8 shared-domain sync, total is ledger stage_end-start (critical path); op categories are serialized work estimates and are not additive because overlap and lane-summed wait diagnostics are represented separately.
- Component deltas identify where Frontier creates its own TP8 advantage; without real per-stage measurements they are not yet root-cause proof.
