# Phase-aware telemetry intervention-response v2 protocol

Status: **INVALID OPERATIONAL ATTEMPT; SUPERSEDED BY V3**.

Date: 2026-07-14 (Asia/Singapore).

The first MNS=16 session timed out while draining the 3.125 requests/s/GPU
workload after its 300-second arrival window.  It produced no high-load result,
and no MNS=64 endpoint was run.  No comparative conclusion is drawn from this
attempt; see `intervention-response-v3-two-load-protocol-20260714.md`.

## Correction to v0/v1

The 5/10-second analyses tested an ultra-early verifier.  They did not test
whether telemetry observed after the engine has developed queue, batch, and KV
state can guide tuning.  The P1 replay lasts 60 seconds after time scaling, and
the 5/10-second prefixes contain only a small fraction of its requests.

V2 therefore replaces absolute cutoffs with replay phase.  The old audits and
their negative decisions remain immutable, but their claim is narrowed to the
first 5/10 seconds.

## Historical corrective audit

The historical audit is development-only and cannot become confirmatory after
the horizon concern was observed.

- Infer each trial's intended replay duration as selected requests divided by
  offered requests per second.  All trials must agree.
- Find every complete 10% replay decile supported by every trial.  Analyze all
  such deciles; selecting only the best horizon is forbidden.
- At each decile report both:
  - cumulative state from replay start to the checkpoint; and
  - the non-overlapping 10%-wide state block ending at the checkpoint.
- Report admitted/completed request coverage, response-versus-repeat statistics,
  telemetry versus external-outcome efficacy, and per-feature trajectory drift.
- Reuse the frozen v1 action and repeat pairs and the frozen response and
  incremental-efficacy thresholds.  These thresholds are descriptive in V2;
  passing one post-hoc horizon does not open a contribution claim.

If early stopping prevents complete observation of the replay phases, the
historical decision is `REQUIRES_UNCENSORED_PHASE_AWARE_PILOT`, independent of
which early decile looks best.

## Uncensored matched pilot

The pilot is a mechanism gate, not paper evidence.

- Hardware/engine/model: solo placement on dash0, 4 NVIDIA H20 GPUs, patched
  vLLM `0.24.1.dev3+opprof`, Qwen3-30B-A3B, fixed `TP=4`.
- Action: `MNS 16 -> 64`; topology, model, engine build, workload, arrival
  sequence, offered load, and all other settings remain fixed.
- Workload: `chat_w20260312_1000` at replay-time scale `0.5`, hence 300 seconds.
- Offered loads per GPU: `1.5`, `2.125`, and `3.125` requests/s.  These supply a
  low control and the two already-observed P1 pressure regimes.
- Repetitions: three disjoint session bands, exact request sequence matched
  across action endpoints.  Endpoint order alternates `A/B`, `B/A`, `A/B`;
  load order is counter-rotated across repetitions.
- A fresh server receives the accepted long-request warm-up and a bounded
  burn-in before each measured session.
- SLO-unrecoverable early stop is disabled.  Every run must observe the full
  300-second arrival window; a separate 360-second safety deadline may mark a
  run invalid but cannot manufacture a full-run label.
- Cumulative checkpoints: 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, or 30/75/150/225/300
  seconds.  Quarter blocks are analyzed separately from cumulative means.
- A measured Layer-1 interval is complete only when its start-boundary,
  end-boundary, and maximum internal record gaps are each at most one second;
  timestamps must be monotonic.
- Placement is serialized.  Co-location remains forbidden because Phase 6
  observed material co-location-induced outcome shifts.
- Hard cap: 8 H20-hours including startup, warm-up, burn-in, invalid attempts,
  and cleanup.

## Gates

Data validity requires complete 300-second Layer-1 coverage, zero dropped
records, exact request/arrival/length hashes across action endpoints, monotonic
timestamps, full request accounting, idle GPUs before and after each session,
and no co-resident GPU process.

Mechanism evidence requires at least two telemetry features whose matched action
response exceeds same-config repeat noise at the same pair of consecutive
checkpoints under the unchanged v1 response thresholds.  Those features must
also have a consistent direction in at least two of the three load regimes.

Decision evidence additionally requires both action-efficacy classes and at
least one of the phase-stable mechanism features to reach
leave-one-repetition-out balanced accuracy at least 0.75 and exceed the best
external prefix outcome by at least 0.15 at two adjacent predeclared
checkpoints from 25% onward.  Without label balance the pilot can adjudicate
mechanism evidence only.

No H20 run is launched if the local analyzer/tests, manifest preflight, GPU
probe, command dry-run, projected cost, or cleanup plan fails.
