Make telemetry audit replay-phase aware

docs/intervention-response-v2-phase-aware-protocol-20260714.md

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+# Phase-aware telemetry intervention-response v2 protocol
+
+Status: **FROZEN BEFORE THE SYSTEMATIC 10% DECILE AUDIT**.
+
+Date: 2026-07-14 (Asia/Singapore).
+
+## Correction to v0/v1
+
+The 5/10-second analyses tested an ultra-early verifier.  They did not test
+whether telemetry observed after the engine has developed queue, batch, and KV
+state can guide tuning.  The P1 replay lasts 60 seconds after time scaling, and
+the 5/10-second prefixes contain only a small fraction of its requests.
+
+V2 therefore replaces absolute cutoffs with replay phase.  The old audits and
+their negative decisions remain immutable, but their claim is narrowed to the
+first 5/10 seconds.
+
+## Historical corrective audit
+
+The historical audit is development-only and cannot become confirmatory after
+the horizon concern was observed.
+
+- Infer each trial's intended replay duration as selected requests divided by
+  offered requests per second.  All trials must agree.
+- Find every complete 10% replay decile supported by every trial.  Analyze all
+  such deciles; selecting only the best horizon is forbidden.
+- At each decile report both:
+  - cumulative state from replay start to the checkpoint; and
+  - the non-overlapping 10%-wide state block ending at the checkpoint.
+- Report admitted/completed request coverage, response-versus-repeat statistics,
+  telemetry versus external-outcome efficacy, and per-feature trajectory drift.
+- Reuse the frozen v1 action and repeat pairs and the frozen response and
+  incremental-efficacy thresholds.  These thresholds are descriptive in V2;
+  passing one post-hoc horizon does not open a contribution claim.
+
+If early stopping prevents complete observation of the replay phases, the
+historical decision is `REQUIRES_UNCENSORED_PHASE_AWARE_PILOT`, independent of
+which early decile looks best.
+
+## Uncensored matched pilot
+
+The pilot is a mechanism gate, not paper evidence.
+
+- Hardware/engine/model: solo placement on dash0, 4 NVIDIA H20 GPUs, patched
+  vLLM `0.24.1.dev3+opprof`, Qwen3-30B-A3B, fixed `TP=4`.
+- Action: `MNS 16 -> 64`; topology, model, engine build, workload, arrival
+  sequence, offered load, and all other settings remain fixed.
+- Workload: `chat_w20260312_1000` at replay-time scale `0.5`, hence 300 seconds.
+- Offered loads per GPU: `1.5`, `2.125`, and `3.125` requests/s.  These supply a
+  low control and the two already-observed P1 pressure regimes.
+- Repetitions: three disjoint session bands, exact request sequence matched
+  across action endpoints.  Endpoint order alternates `A/B`, `B/A`, `A/B`;
+  load order is counter-rotated across repetitions.
+- A fresh server receives the accepted long-request warm-up and a bounded
+  burn-in before each measured session.
+- SLO-unrecoverable early stop is disabled.  Every run must observe the full
+  300-second arrival window; a separate 360-second safety deadline may mark a
+  run invalid but cannot manufacture a full-run label.
+- Cumulative checkpoints: 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, or 30/75/150/225/300
+  seconds.  Quarter blocks are analyzed separately from cumulative means.
+- Placement is serialized.  Co-location remains forbidden because Phase 6
+  observed material co-location-induced outcome shifts.
+- Hard cap: 8 H20-hours including startup, warm-up, burn-in, invalid attempts,
+  and cleanup.
+
+## Gates
+
+Data validity requires complete 300-second Layer-1 coverage, zero dropped
+records, exact request/arrival/length hashes across action endpoints, monotonic
+timestamps, full request accounting, idle GPUs before and after each session,
+and no co-resident GPU process.
+
+Mechanism evidence requires at least two telemetry features whose matched action
+response exceeds same-config repeat noise at two consecutive checkpoints under
+the unchanged v1 response thresholds.  The same features must have a consistent
+direction in at least two of the three load regimes.
+
+Decision evidence additionally requires both action-efficacy classes and an
+instrumentation feature that reaches leave-one-repetition-out balanced accuracy
+at least 0.75 and exceeds the best external prefix outcome by at least 0.15.
+Without label balance the pilot can adjudicate mechanism evidence only.
+
+No H20 run is launched if the local analyzer/tests, manifest preflight, GPU
+probe, command dry-run, projected cost, or cleanup plan fails.