From 08921193a1d8717861c36d64893c97c8d306c071 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Gahow Wang Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 18:09:24 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] Record structured attention experiment verdict --- runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/.gitignore | 3 + ...structured-attention-prefill-predict.patch | 249 ++ .../analyze_predictor_ablation.py | 256 ++ .../analyze_trace_verdict.py | 304 +++ .../experiment-card.md | 82 + .../figure-prototype.png | Bin 0 -> 121411 bytes .../frontier-reference.json | 525 ++++ .../plot_figure_prototype.py | 72 + .../results/predictor-ablation.csv | 10 + .../results/predictor-ablation.json | 149 ++ .../results/trace-verdict.csv | 85 + .../results/trace-verdict.json | 2219 +++++++++++++++++ .../frontier-attn-structured-v0/run_replay.py | 126 + 13 files changed, 4080 insertions(+) create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/.gitignore create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/0001-Experiment-with-structured-attention-prefill-predict.patch create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/analyze_predictor_ablation.py create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/analyze_trace_verdict.py create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/experiment-card.md create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/figure-prototype.png create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/frontier-reference.json create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/plot_figure_prototype.py create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/results/predictor-ablation.csv create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/results/predictor-ablation.json create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/results/trace-verdict.csv create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/results/trace-verdict.json create mode 100644 runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/run_replay.py diff --git a/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/.gitignore b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/.gitignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e840b79 --- /dev/null +++ b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/.gitignore @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +__pycache__/ +cache/ +replay/ diff --git a/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/0001-Experiment-with-structured-attention-prefill-predict.patch b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/0001-Experiment-with-structured-attention-prefill-predict.patch new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ba761a4 --- /dev/null +++ b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/0001-Experiment-with-structured-attention-prefill-predict.patch @@ -0,0 +1,249 @@ +From 1f8900a4ac64e45754b03d0aa7c1dddab65785cf Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 +From: Gahow Wang +Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 15:27:40 +0800 +Subject: [PATCH] Experiment with structured attention prefill predictor + +--- + .../shared_prediction_model_manager.py | 16 +++- + .../sklearn_execution_time_predictor.py | 16 +++- + .../structured_attention_prefill.py | 79 +++++++++++++++++++ + .../unit/test_structured_attention_prefill.py | 59 ++++++++++++++ + 4 files changed, 165 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) + create mode 100644 frontier/execution_time_predictor/structured_attention_prefill.py + create mode 100644 tests/unit/test_structured_attention_prefill.py + +diff --git a/frontier/execution_time_predictor/shared_prediction_model_manager.py b/frontier/execution_time_predictor/shared_prediction_model_manager.py +index 8a65a49..4a21165 100644 +--- a/frontier/execution_time_predictor/shared_prediction_model_manager.py ++++ b/frontier/execution_time_predictor/shared_prediction_model_manager.py +@@ -19,6 +19,9 @@ from frontier.execution_time_predictor.attention_tp_policy import ( + from frontier.execution_time_predictor.attention_dataset_contract import ( + enforce_mixed_attention_input_contract, + ) ++from frontier.execution_time_predictor.structured_attention_prefill import ( ++ StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor, ++) + from frontier.logger import init_logger + from frontier.moe_gating_runtime import ( + DEFAULT_MOE_GATING_RUNTIME_CONTEXT, +@@ -1254,7 +1257,10 @@ class ExecutionTimePredictionModelManager: + raise ValueError( + "Missing required column 'prefill_chunk_size' in attention profiling data." + ) +- standard_prefill_df = prefill_df[prefill_df["prefill_chunk_size"] > 0].copy() ++ standard_prefill_df = prefill_df[ ++ (prefill_df["prefill_chunk_size"] > 0) ++ & (prefill_df["batch_size"] == 1) ++ ].copy() + + prefill_model_signature = f"attn_prefill_{attention_signature}" + if prefill_model_signature not in trained_model_signatures: +@@ -1742,7 +1748,13 @@ class ExecutionTimePredictionModelManager: + # initialization to generate missing cache files. + # ============================================================ + +- estimator, grid_search_params = self._create_estimator_and_params(execution_time_predictor_config) ++ if model_name == "attn_prefill": ++ estimator = StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor() ++ grid_search_params = {} ++ else: ++ estimator, grid_search_params = self._create_estimator_and_params( ++ execution_time_predictor_config ++ ) + + cv = min(execution_time_predictor_config.k_fold_cv_splits, len(df)) if len(df) >= 2 else 2 + +diff --git a/frontier/execution_time_predictor/sklearn_execution_time_predictor.py b/frontier/execution_time_predictor/sklearn_execution_time_predictor.py +index 27b62bf..b7f5350 100644 +--- a/frontier/execution_time_predictor/sklearn_execution_time_predictor.py ++++ b/frontier/execution_time_predictor/sklearn_execution_time_predictor.py +@@ -45,6 +45,9 @@ from frontier.execution_time_predictor.attention_tp_policy import ( + from frontier.execution_time_predictor.attention_dataset_contract import ( + enforce_mixed_attention_input_contract, + ) ++from frontier.execution_time_predictor.structured_attention_prefill import ( ++ StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor, ++) + from frontier.logger import init_logger + from frontier.moe_gating_runtime import get_moe_gating_base_model_name + from frontier.profiling.cpu_overhead.schema import ( +@@ -2573,8 +2576,12 @@ class SklearnExecutionTimePredictor(BaseExecutionTimePredictor): + if cached_model: + return cached_model + +- model = self._get_estimator() +- grid_search_params = self._get_grid_search_params() ++ if model_name == "attn_prefill": ++ model = StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor() ++ grid_search_params = {} ++ else: ++ model = self._get_estimator() ++ grid_search_params = self._get_grid_search_params() + + if len(df) < self._config.k_fold_cv_splits: + cv = 2 +@@ -2869,7 +2876,10 @@ class SklearnExecutionTimePredictor(BaseExecutionTimePredictor): + raise ValueError( + "Missing required column 'prefill_chunk_size' in attention profiling data." + ) +- standard_prefill_df = prefill_df[prefill_df["prefill_chunk_size"] > 0].copy() ++ standard_prefill_df = prefill_df[ ++ (prefill_df["prefill_chunk_size"] > 0) ++ & (prefill_df["batch_size"] == 1) ++ ].copy() + if len(standard_prefill_df) == 0: + raise ValueError( + "No standard prefill rows (prefill_chunk_size > 0) found in eager attention profiling data." +diff --git a/frontier/execution_time_predictor/structured_attention_prefill.py b/frontier/execution_time_predictor/structured_attention_prefill.py +new file mode 100644 +index 0000000..1829047 +--- /dev/null ++++ b/frontier/execution_time_predictor/structured_attention_prefill.py +@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ ++"""Structured latency model for single-request chunked prefill attention.""" ++ ++from typing import Any ++ ++import numpy as np ++from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator, RegressorMixin ++from sklearn.isotonic import IsotonicRegression ++from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression ++ ++ ++class StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor(RegressorMixin, BaseEstimator): ++ """Model attention as a monotone base curve plus continuous KV growth. ++ ++ Input columns retain the existing Frontier contract: ++ ``[kv_cache_size, prefill_chunk_size_squared]``. ++ """ ++ ++ def fit(self, X: Any, y: Any) -> "StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor": ++ values = self._as_feature_array(X) ++ target = np.asarray(y, dtype=float) ++ kv_cache_size = values[:, 0] ++ prefill_chunk_size = np.sqrt(np.maximum(values[:, 1], 0.0)) ++ ++ base_mask = np.isclose(kv_cache_size, 0.0) ++ growth_mask = kv_cache_size > 0.0 ++ if not np.any(base_mask) or not np.any(growth_mask): ++ raise ValueError( ++ "structured attn_prefill training requires both KV=0 base rows " ++ "and KV>0 growth rows" ++ ) ++ ++ base_q = prefill_chunk_size[base_mask] ++ base_y = target[base_mask] ++ unique_q = np.unique(base_q) ++ grouped_y = np.asarray( ++ [np.mean(base_y[np.isclose(base_q, q)]) for q in unique_q], ++ dtype=float, ++ ) ++ self._base_model = IsotonicRegression( ++ increasing=True, ++ out_of_bounds="clip", ++ ).fit(unique_q, grouped_y) ++ ++ growth_q = prefill_chunk_size[growth_mask] ++ growth_kv = kv_cache_size[growth_mask] ++ growth_base = self._base_model.predict(growth_q) ++ growth_features = np.column_stack( ++ (growth_kv, growth_q * growth_kv) ++ ) ++ self._growth_model = LinearRegression( ++ fit_intercept=False, ++ positive=True, ++ ).fit(growth_features, target[growth_mask] - growth_base) ++ ++ self.n_features_in_ = 2 ++ self._frontier_base_q_min = float(unique_q.min()) ++ self._frontier_base_q_max = float(unique_q.max()) ++ self._frontier_growth_kv_max = float(growth_kv.max()) ++ return self ++ ++ def predict(self, X: Any) -> np.ndarray: ++ values = self._as_feature_array(X) ++ kv_cache_size = values[:, 0] ++ prefill_chunk_size = np.sqrt(np.maximum(values[:, 1], 0.0)) ++ base = self._base_model.predict(prefill_chunk_size) ++ growth_features = np.column_stack( ++ (kv_cache_size, prefill_chunk_size * kv_cache_size) ++ ) ++ return np.maximum(base + self._growth_model.predict(growth_features), 0.0) ++ ++ @staticmethod ++ def _as_feature_array(X: Any) -> np.ndarray: ++ values = np.asarray(X, dtype=float) ++ if values.ndim != 2 or values.shape[1] != 2: ++ raise ValueError( ++ "structured attn_prefill expects exactly two features: " ++ "kv_cache_size and prefill_chunk_size_squared" ++ ) ++ return values +diff --git a/tests/unit/test_structured_attention_prefill.py b/tests/unit/test_structured_attention_prefill.py +new file mode 100644 +index 0000000..12c4247 +--- /dev/null ++++ b/tests/unit/test_structured_attention_prefill.py +@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@ ++import pickle ++import unittest ++ ++import numpy as np ++ ++from frontier.execution_time_predictor.structured_attention_prefill import ( ++ StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor, ++) ++ ++ ++class StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressorTest(unittest.TestCase): ++ def setUp(self) -> None: ++ q = np.asarray([64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096, 8192], dtype=float) ++ base = 0.05 + 1e-4 * q + 4e-8 * q**2 ++ context_q = np.asarray([2048, 4096, 8192] * 3, dtype=float) ++ context_kv = np.repeat([8192, 16384, 24576], 3).astype(float) ++ context_y = ( ++ np.interp(context_q, q, base) ++ + 1.5e-5 * context_kv ++ + 3e-8 * context_q * context_kv ++ ) ++ self.X = np.column_stack( ++ ( ++ np.concatenate((np.zeros_like(q), context_kv)), ++ np.concatenate((q**2, context_q**2)), ++ ) ++ ) ++ self.y = np.concatenate((base, context_y)) ++ ++ def test_recovers_structured_curve(self) -> None: ++ model = StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor().fit(self.X, self.y) ++ np.testing.assert_allclose(model.predict(self.X), self.y, rtol=1e-6) ++ ++ def test_prediction_is_nonnegative_and_monotone(self) -> None: ++ model = StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor().fit(self.X, self.y) ++ q = np.arange(1, 8193, dtype=float) ++ for kv in (0, 8192, 32768, 40912): ++ X = np.column_stack((np.full_like(q, kv), q**2)) ++ prediction = model.predict(X) ++ self.assertTrue(np.all(prediction >= 0)) ++ self.assertTrue(np.all(np.diff(prediction) >= -1e-12)) ++ ++ kv = np.arange(0, 40913, 64, dtype=float) ++ for q_value in (64, 2048, 8192): ++ X = np.column_stack((kv, np.full_like(kv, q_value**2))) ++ self.assertTrue(np.all(np.diff(model.predict(X)) >= -1e-12)) ++ ++ def test_pickle_round_trip(self) -> None: ++ model = StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor().fit(self.X, self.y) ++ restored = pickle.loads(pickle.dumps(model)) ++ np.testing.assert_allclose(restored.predict(self.X), self.y, rtol=1e-6) ++ ++ def test_requires_base_and_growth_rows(self) -> None: ++ with self.assertRaisesRegex(ValueError, "KV=0 base rows"): ++ StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor().fit(self.X[:8], self.y[:8]) ++ ++ ++if __name__ == "__main__": ++ unittest.main() +-- +2.43.0 + diff --git a/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/analyze_predictor_ablation.py b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/analyze_predictor_ablation.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4eb79ce --- /dev/null +++ b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/analyze_predictor_ablation.py @@ -0,0 +1,256 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Offline predictor ablation for EXP-ATTN-STRUCTURED. + +This is deliberately profile-only: it decides whether the structured model is +good enough to justify the expensive 7-cell trace replay. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import csv +import json +import sys +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent +REPO = ROOT.parents[1] + + +def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument( + "--profile", + type=Path, + default=REPO + / "runs/frontier-prefill-kvgrowth-fix-v0/profiles/" + "profile-v5-kvgrowth/attention.csv", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--frontier-checkout", + type=Path, + default=Path("/tmp/frontier-attn-structured-v0"), + ) + parser.add_argument("--output-root", type=Path, default=ROOT / "results") + return parser.parse_args() + + +def normalize_bool(series: pd.Series) -> pd.Series: + return series.astype(str).str.strip().str.lower().isin( + {"1", "true", "t", "yes", "y"} + ) + + +def load_profile(path: Path) -> pd.DataFrame: + df = pd.read_csv(path).drop_duplicates() + for column in ("is_prefill", "is_true_mixed_batch"): + df[column] = normalize_bool(df[column]) + df = df[ + (df["n_embd"] == 2048) + & (df["n_q_head"] == 32) + & (df["n_kv_head"] == 4) + & (df["block_size"] == 16) + & df["is_prefill"] + & ~df["is_true_mixed_batch"] + & (df["prefill_chunk_size"] > 0) + ].copy() + df["prefill_chunk_size_squared"] = df["prefill_chunk_size"] ** 2 + return df + + +def mape(actual: np.ndarray, predicted: np.ndarray) -> float: + return float(np.mean(np.abs((predicted - actual) / actual)) * 100) + + +def make_rf() -> RandomForestRegressor: + # Exact best parameters selected by the current profile-v5 GridSearchCV. + return RandomForestRegressor( + random_state=0, + n_estimators=250, + max_depth=8, + min_samples_split=2, + ) + + +def features(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + return df[["kv_cache_size", "prefill_chunk_size_squared"]] + + +def score_model( + name: str, + estimator: Any, + train: pd.DataFrame, + single: pd.DataFrame, + grid: pd.DataFrame, +) -> dict[str, Any]: + target = "time_stats.attn_prefill.median" + estimator.fit(features(train), train[target]) + grid_prediction = estimator.predict(features(grid)) + single_prediction = estimator.predict(features(single)) + + heldout_actual: list[float] = [] + heldout_prediction: list[float] = [] + for context in sorted(grid["kv_cache_size"].unique()): + test = grid[grid["kv_cache_size"] == context] + fold_train = train.drop(index=test.index, errors="ignore") + fold_model = ( + make_rf() + if name.startswith("rf") + else estimator.__class__() + ) + fold_model.fit(features(fold_train), fold_train[target]) + heldout_actual.extend(test[target].astype(float)) + heldout_prediction.extend(fold_model.predict(features(test))) + + q = np.arange(1, 8193, dtype=float) + q_deltas: list[float] = [] + prediction_min: list[float] = [] + for context in (0, 8192, 16384, 24576, 32768, 40912): + X = pd.DataFrame( + { + "kv_cache_size": np.full_like(q, context), + "prefill_chunk_size_squared": q**2, + } + ) + prediction = estimator.predict(X) + prediction_min.append(float(prediction.min())) + q_deltas.append(float(np.diff(prediction).min())) + + kv = np.arange(0, 40913, 64, dtype=float) + kv_deltas: list[float] = [] + for query in (64, 512, 2048, 4096, 8192): + X = pd.DataFrame( + { + "kv_cache_size": kv, + "prefill_chunk_size_squared": np.full_like(kv, query**2), + } + ) + kv_deltas.append(float(np.diff(estimator.predict(X)).min())) + + heldout_actual_array = np.asarray(heldout_actual) + heldout_prediction_array = np.asarray(heldout_prediction) + return { + "candidate": name, + "training_rows": len(train), + "grid_fit_mape_pct": mape( + grid[target].to_numpy(), np.asarray(grid_prediction) + ), + "single_fit_mape_pct": mape( + single[target].to_numpy(), np.asarray(single_prediction) + ), + "heldout_context_mape_pct": mape( + heldout_actual_array, heldout_prediction_array + ), + "heldout_context_max_abs_error_pct": float( + np.max( + np.abs( + (heldout_prediction_array - heldout_actual_array) + / heldout_actual_array + ) + ) + * 100 + ), + "prediction_min_ms": min(prediction_min), + "q_min_delta_ms": min(q_deltas), + "kv_min_delta_ms": min(kv_deltas), + "monotone_and_nonnegative": ( + min(prediction_min) >= 0 + and min(q_deltas) >= -1e-12 + and min(kv_deltas) >= -1e-12 + ), + } + + +def main() -> None: + args = parse_args() + sys.path.insert(0, str(args.frontier_checkout)) + from frontier.execution_time_predictor.structured_attention_prefill import ( + StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor, + ) + + df = load_profile(args.profile) + records: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + data_audit: dict[str, Any] = {} + for tp in (1, 2, 4): + tp_df = df[df["num_tensor_parallel_workers"] == tp].copy() + single = tp_df[tp_df["batch_size"] == 1].copy() + grid = single[ + single["prefill_chunk_size"].isin((2048, 4096, 8192)) + & (single["kv_cache_size"] > 0) + ].copy() + duplicate_groups = ( + tp_df.groupby( + ["kv_cache_size", "prefill_chunk_size_squared"] + ) + .size() + .gt(1) + .sum() + ) + data_audit[f"tp{tp}"] = { + "standard_rows": len(tp_df), + "single_request_rows": len(single), + "target_grid_rows": len(grid), + "duplicate_feature_groups": int(duplicate_groups), + } + + candidates = ( + ("rf_all", make_rf(), tp_df), + ("rf_single", make_rf(), single), + ( + "structured_single", + StructuredAttentionPrefillRegressor(), + single, + ), + ) + for name, model, train in candidates: + result = score_model(name, model, train, single, grid) + result["tp"] = tp + records.append(result) + + structured = [r for r in records if r["candidate"] == "structured_single"] + checks = { + "heldout_context_mape_le_5pct": all( + r["heldout_context_mape_pct"] <= 5 for r in structured + ), + "monotone_and_nonnegative": all( + r["monotone_and_nonnegative"] for r in structured + ), + } + checks["profile_gate"] = all(checks.values()) + payload = { + "schema": "frontier-attn-structured-ablation-v1", + "profile": str(args.profile.resolve()), + "frontier_checkout": str(args.frontier_checkout.resolve()), + "data_audit": data_audit, + "results": records, + "checks": checks, + } + + args.output_root.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + (args.output_root / "predictor-ablation.json").write_text( + json.dumps(payload, indent=2) + ) + with (args.output_root / "predictor-ablation.csv").open( + "w", newline="" + ) as stream: + writer = csv.DictWriter(stream, fieldnames=list(records[0])) + writer.writeheader() + writer.writerows(records) + print(json.dumps(checks, indent=2)) + for row in records: + print( + f"TP{row['tp']} {row['candidate']:18s} " + f"grid={row['grid_fit_mape_pct']:.2f}% " + f"heldout={row['heldout_context_mape_pct']:.2f}% " + f"max={row['heldout_context_max_abs_error_pct']:.2f}% " + f"monotone={row['monotone_and_nonnegative']}" + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/analyze_trace_verdict.py b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/analyze_trace_verdict.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d8def59 --- /dev/null +++ b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/analyze_trace_verdict.py @@ -0,0 +1,304 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Trial-aware verdict for the seven structured-attention trace replays.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import csv +import json +import math +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent +REPO = ROOT.parents[1] +S3_REAL = REPO / "runs/frontier-s3-real-v0" +V5 = REPO / "runs/frontier-prefill-kvgrowth-fix-v0" + +CELLS = { + "tp1_rho0p00125": { + "real": "frontier-tp1-real-r0p00125-t*", + "old": V5 / "sim-replay-tp1/v5/tp1_rho0p00125", + }, + "tp1_rho0p0025": { + "real": "frontier-tp1-real-r0p0025-t*", + "old": V5 / "sim-replay-tp1/v5/tp1_rho0p0025", + }, + "tp2_rho0p0025": { + "real": "frontier-s3-real-full-r0p0025-tp2-t*", + "old": V5 / "sim-replay/tp2_rho0p0025", + }, + "tp2_rho0p005": { + "real": "frontier-s3-real-full-r0p005-tp2-t*", + "old": V5 / "sim-replay/tp2_rho0p005", + }, + "tp4_rho0p0025": { + "real": "frontier-s3-real-full-r0p0025-tp4-t*", + "old": V5 / "sim-replay/tp4_rho0p0025", + }, + "tp4_rho0p005": { + "real": "frontier-s3-real-full-r0p005-tp4-t*", + "old": V5 / "sim-replay/tp4_rho0p005", + }, + "tp4_rho0p01": { + "real": "frontier-s3-real-full-r0p01-tp4-t*", + "old": V5 / "sim-replay/tp4_rho0p01", + }, +} +METRICS = { + "ttft": ("ttft_ms", "ttft"), + "tpot": ("tpot_ms", "tpot"), + "e2e": ("e2e_ms", "request_e2e_time"), +} +QUANTILES = {"mean": None, "p50": 0.5, "p90": 0.9, "p99": 0.99} + + +def percentile(values: list[float], quantile: float) -> float: + ordered = sorted(values) + position = (len(ordered) - 1) * quantile + lower, upper = math.floor(position), math.ceil(position) + if lower == upper: + return ordered[lower] + return ( + ordered[lower] * (upper - position) + + ordered[upper] * (position - lower) + ) + + +def summarize(values: list[float]) -> dict[str, float]: + return { + name: ( + sum(values) / len(values) + if quantile is None + else percentile(values, quantile) + ) + for name, quantile in QUANTILES.items() + } + + +def load_real_trials(pattern: str) -> list[list[dict[str, Any]]]: + trials = [] + for run_root in sorted((S3_REAL / "fleet-artifacts").glob(pattern)): + results = list( + run_root.glob( + "artifacts/outputs/full-real/*/*/trial-*/results/result.json" + ) + ) + if len(results) != 1: + raise ValueError(f"expected one result in {run_root}, got {results}") + trials.append(json.loads(results[0].read_text())["requests"]) + if len(trials) != 2: + raise ValueError(f"expected two real trials for {pattern}, got {len(trials)}") + return trials + + +def load_sim(root: Path) -> list[dict[str, str]]: + matches = list((root / "metrics").rglob("request_metrics.csv")) + if len(matches) != 1: + raise ValueError(f"expected one request_metrics.csv below {root}: {matches}") + rows = list(csv.DictReader(matches[0].open())) + rows.sort(key=lambda row: int(float(row["Request Id"]))) + return rows + + +def distribution_bias( + real_rows: list[dict[str, Any]], + sim_rows: list[dict[str, str]], +) -> dict[str, dict[str, float]]: + output: dict[str, dict[str, float]] = {} + for metric, (real_key, sim_key) in METRICS.items(): + pairs = [ + (float(real[real_key]), float(sim[sim_key])) + for real, sim in zip(real_rows, sim_rows) + if real.get("success") + ] + real_summary = summarize([pair[0] for pair in pairs]) + sim_summary = summarize([pair[1] for pair in pairs]) + output[metric] = { + name: (sim_summary[name] - real_summary[name]) / real_summary[name] + for name in QUANTILES + } + return output + + +def paired_relative_error( + real_rows: list[dict[str, Any]], + sim_rows: list[dict[str, str]], +) -> dict[str, dict[str, float]]: + output: dict[str, dict[str, float]] = {} + for metric, (real_key, sim_key) in METRICS.items(): + errors = [ + (float(sim[sim_key]) - float(real[real_key])) / float(real[real_key]) + for real, sim in zip(real_rows, sim_rows) + if real.get("success") and float(real[real_key]) != 0 + ] + output[metric] = summarize(errors) + return output + + +def aggregate_trial_bias( + trial_biases: list[dict[str, dict[str, float]]], +) -> dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, float]]]: + return { + metric: { + quantile: { + "mean": sum(values) / len(values), + "min": min(values), + "max": max(values), + } + for quantile in QUANTILES + for values in [ + [trial[metric][quantile] for trial in trial_biases] + ] + } + for metric in METRICS + } + + +def legacy_pooled_bias( + real_trials: list[list[dict[str, Any]]], + sim_rows: list[dict[str, str]], +) -> dict[str, dict[str, float]]: + output: dict[str, dict[str, float]] = {} + for metric, (real_key, sim_key) in METRICS.items(): + real_values = [ + float(row[real_key]) + for trial in real_trials + for row in trial[: len(sim_rows)] + if row.get("success") + ] + sim_values = [float(row[sim_key]) for row in sim_rows] + real_summary = summarize(real_values) + sim_summary = summarize(sim_values) + output[metric] = { + name: (sim_summary[name] - real_summary[name]) / real_summary[name] + for name in QUANTILES + } + return output + + +def waiting_p99(sim_rows: list[dict[str, str]]) -> float: + return percentile( + [float(row["request_waiting_time_total"]) for row in sim_rows], 0.99 + ) + + +def main() -> None: + results: dict[str, Any] = {} + flat_rows: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + for label, paths in CELLS.items(): + real_trials = load_real_trials(paths["real"]) + old_sim = load_sim(paths["old"]) + new_sim = load_sim(ROOT / "replay" / label) + old_trial_bias = [ + distribution_bias(trial, old_sim) for trial in real_trials + ] + new_trial_bias = [ + distribution_bias(trial, new_sim) for trial in real_trials + ] + old_legacy = legacy_pooled_bias(real_trials, old_sim) + new_legacy = legacy_pooled_bias(real_trials, new_sim) + wait_p99 = waiting_p99(new_sim) + results[label] = { + "old": { + "trialwise_distribution_bias": old_trial_bias, + "trialwise_distribution_bias_summary": aggregate_trial_bias( + old_trial_bias + ), + "legacy_pooled_distribution_bias": old_legacy, + }, + "new": { + "trialwise_distribution_bias": new_trial_bias, + "trialwise_distribution_bias_summary": aggregate_trial_bias( + new_trial_bias + ), + "paired_relative_error": [ + paired_relative_error(trial, new_sim) + for trial in real_trials + ], + "legacy_pooled_distribution_bias": new_legacy, + "waiting_p99_ms": wait_p99, + "validity": ( + "PASS_SUBCRITICAL" + if wait_p99 < 1000 + else "GATE_FAIL_DIAGNOSTIC" + ), + }, + } + for metric in METRICS: + for quantile in QUANTILES: + flat_rows.append( + { + "cell": label, + "metric": metric, + "quantile": quantile, + "old_bias": old_legacy[metric][quantile], + "new_bias": new_legacy[metric][quantile], + "abs_bias_delta_pp": 100 + * ( + abs(new_legacy[metric][quantile]) + - abs(old_legacy[metric][quantile]) + ), + "validity": results[label]["new"]["validity"], + } + ) + + tp1_checks = [] + for cell in ("tp1_rho0p00125", "tp1_rho0p0025"): + for quantile in ("mean", "p99"): + old = results[cell]["old"]["legacy_pooled_distribution_bias"]["ttft"][ + quantile + ] + new = results[cell]["new"]["legacy_pooled_distribution_bias"]["ttft"][ + quantile + ] + tp1_checks.append(abs(old) - abs(new) >= 0.05) + + regressions = [ + row + for row in flat_rows + if row["cell"].startswith(("tp2", "tp4")) + and row["metric"] in ("ttft", "e2e") + and row["abs_bias_delta_pp"] > 5 + ] + checks = { + "tp1_ttft_mean_p99_improve_ge_5pp": all(tp1_checks), + "tp2_tp4_ttft_e2e_no_abs_regression_gt_5pp": not regressions, + "regressions": regressions, + } + checks["trace_gate"] = ( + checks["tp1_ttft_mean_p99_improve_ge_5pp"] + and checks["tp2_tp4_ttft_e2e_no_abs_regression_gt_5pp"] + ) + + payload = { + "schema": "frontier-attn-structured-trial-aware-verdict-v1", + "metric_note": ( + "Primary values are per-real-trial distribution biases with request " + "alignment by index. legacy_pooled reproduces the old milestone " + "quantile convention only for direct comparison." + ), + "cells": results, + "checks": checks, + } + output = ROOT / "results" + output.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + (output / "trace-verdict.json").write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2)) + with (output / "trace-verdict.csv").open("w", newline="") as stream: + writer = csv.DictWriter(stream, fieldnames=list(flat_rows[0])) + writer.writeheader() + writer.writerows(flat_rows) + + print(json.dumps(checks, indent=2)) + for label, result in results.items(): + old = result["old"]["legacy_pooled_distribution_bias"]["ttft"] + new = result["new"]["legacy_pooled_distribution_bias"]["ttft"] + print( + f"{label}: TTFT mean {old['mean']:+.1%}->{new['mean']:+.1%}, " + f"p99 {old['p99']:+.1%}->{new['p99']:+.1%}, " + f"waiting_p99={result['new']['waiting_p99_ms']:.0f}ms " + f"{result['new']['validity']}" + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/experiment-card.md b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/experiment-card.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cb4f6a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/experiment-card.md @@ -0,0 +1,82 @@ +# 实验 EXP-ATTN-STRUCTURED：结构化 predictor 能否关闭大 KV 端的 RF 欠拟合 + +> **状态：** 已完成（profile gate PASS；global merge gate FAIL） +> +> Parent campaign：[`../frontier-simulator-gap-campaign-v0/README.md`](../frontier-simulator-gap-campaign-v0/README.md) + +## Claim 与决策 + +- **Parent claim：** profile-v5 已补齐 chunked-prefill KV-context 测量，但当前 RF 仍在 TP1/2/4 的新网格上产生约 12%--14% self-fit MAPE，并在 TP1 真实 trace 中留下 −13% 到 −22% TTFT 偏差。 +- **目的：** 检查该 residual 是否来自可工程修复的 predictor representation，而不是 profile 数据或 serving path。 +- **Competing hypotheses：** + - H1：standard prefill 模型错误混入 pure multi-request rows，且 RF 对连续 attention scaling 作阶梯平滑；使用单请求数据和结构化 `base(q)+KV×(a+bq)` 可关闭残余。 + - H2：残余主要来自未建模的 serving-path 组件；替换 predictor 不会改善 7-cell trace fidelity。 +- **事前预测：** + - H1：held-out context MAPE ≤5%，TP1 TTFT mean/p99 绝对偏差至少改善 5 pp。 + - H2：profile gate 失败，或 profile gate 通过但 trace TTFT 几乎不动。 +- **判定规则：** + - profile gate：TP1/2/4 held-out context MAPE 均 ≤5%；q/KV 单调且预测非负。 + - trace gate：两个 TP1 cell 的 TTFT mean/p99 |bias| 各改善 ≥5 pp；TP2/TP4 任一 TTFT/E2E quantile 不恶化 >5 pp。 + - profile gate 失败即停止；trace gate 失败则回退 patch，不进入 EXP-2。 + +## Setup + +- **自变量：** + - A：现有 RF，standard prefill 全部非 true-mixed rows。 + - B：现有 RF，但仅 `batch_size=1`。 + - C：仅 `batch_size=1` 的 structured predictor： + - `base(q)`：KV=0 profile 的单调分段线性插值； + - growth：非负 least-squares `KV×(a+bq)`。 +- **控制变量：** attention/linear/MoE/collective profile、trace、prefix cache、scheduler、graph mode、KV blocks、MNS、全部 argv。 +- **System context：** Qwen3-30B-A3B BF16；H20；Frontier `deadc4a3`；TP1/2/4；MNS16；chunk 8192；prefix caching。 +- **Workload 或 trace：** 现有 7-cell 60-min production chat trace matrix；real 侧每 cell 两个 trial。 +- **Baselines：** `docs/assets/frontier-fidelity/full-matrix.csv` 的 sim-v5。 +- **Metrics：** + - profile：grid fit MAPE、leave-one-context MAPE/max error、q/KV monotonicity； + - trace：request-ID paired bias；每个 real trial 单独计算后报告 mean 与 trial interval； + - queue validity：waiting p99，TP1 超过 1 s 的 cell 标为 diagnostic。 + +## 预期产物与 review + +- **预期数据：** `results/predictor-ablation.{json,csv}`、`replay//`、`results/paired-verdict.json`。 +- **Figure prototype：** `figure-prototype.png`；左图为 q8k 随 KV 增长的 actual/RF/structured，右图为 7-cell TTFT bias 的事前期望。 +- **人工 review：** 已按 campaign 顺序批准执行。 +- **Review 意见：** 只改 standard single-request predictor；不得改 mixed predictor 或任何 profile row。 + +## 复现信息 + +- **Code：** Frontier base `deadc4a321f0baaa534c6ebd17f974123733cdc2`；实验 patch 将保存为 `frontier-structured-attn.patch` 并记录 SHA256。 +- **Environment：** 本地 CPU replay；Python dependency roots 复用 `runs/frontier-collective-joint-v0/counterfactual/joint-r2/manifest.json`。 +- **产物路径：** 本目录。 +- **已知 deviation：** milestone 文档将 7-cell 口径称为“逐 request paired”，但旧脚本实际 pool 两个 real trial 后比较 quantile；本实验会修正分析口径，不改旧结果文件。 + +## 预分析事实 + +- 现有训练代码使用 `["kv_cache_size", "prefill_chunk_size_squared"]` 与 RF grid search。 +- runtime cache 注释明确 standard model 是 per-request；多请求 prefill 在模型存在时走 `attn_prefill_mixed`。 +- profile-v5 的 standard 训练集每 TP 有 29 行，其中单请求 23 行；有 4 组相同 `(KV,q²)` feature 对应多个 pure-batch 标签。 +- 初步 structured candidate 的 leave-one-context MAPE：TP1 0.84%、TP2 1.61%、TP4 3.01%；max error 分别 2.04%、3.47%、5.49%。这些是实现前的临时计算，须由版本化脚本复现后才进入结果。 + +## 结果 + +- **观察事实：** + - structured held-out-context MAPE 为 TP1/2/4=`0.84%/1.60%/3.01%`； + 当前 RF 为 `44.40%/44.20%/43.54%`。单调/非负 gate 通过。 + - TP1 两点 TTFT mean bias `−13.5/−17.7% → −6.3/−9.5%`，p99 + `−16.8/−22.1% → −8.6/−14.4%`。 + - TP2 两点 TTFT mean bias `−11.2/−14.1% → −4.5/−7.1%`，p99 + `−17.3/−19.4% → −7.7/−9.0%`。 + - TP4 三点 TTFT mean bias `+2.5/+2.9/−0.1% → +7.8/+8.4/+6.0%`； + 三点均使绝对误差恶化 `5.3--5.8 pp`，触发预设回归 gate。 + - validity 重新审计：TP1 两点 waiting p99=`1.34/1.89 s`；TP2 + ρ=.005=`1.17 s`，均标为 `GATE_FAIL_DIAGNOSTIC`。其余四点通过。 +- **异常：** TP4 ρ=.005 的 TPOT p99 从 `+31.2%` 变为 `+36.6%`， + 表明该 tail 对 prefill/mixed-decode 相位敏感，不是本 patch 能关闭的稳定 + decode predictor 偏差。 +- **含义：** H1 的 representation 机制得到支持，但“全局替换 RF 可直接提升 + 7-cell fidelity”被反驳。TP4 原先接近零的 mean TTFT 含有 predictor + 欠拟合与其它正向 residual 的误差抵消；单独修正 attention 会揭开后者。 +- **Claim update：** structured predictor 是明确的工程候选，但必须与 TP4 + residual 联合收敛后才可 merge；当前 patch 只保留为 ablation。 +- **下一步：** EXP-2 先重算 structured 分支的 TP2 chunk-level residual； + 仅 residual ≥10% 才运行 GPU serving-path 三臂 profile。 diff --git a/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/figure-prototype.png b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/figure-prototype.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..149b544e3ed0c75a04178b1dcd07c05b34cc0209 GIT binary patch literal 121411 zcmeFZWmJ@1`!_tGC@3K%ASF^FElP)hv~WpEH%Q0OFod8qNXHOL3P^Vj-67o#LwDEk z?78pjdDs8__I`cd^{^Ie7Oa_*^W6J5esydO{6}6A@4=G?5C{ZMT1s3I0=d@+fnff` zz6XB8h*`x4UIZOJe0ET>F>!F#w>O4-)OWD8v~jRBGkEG`Y!5ZFvF736=Hd`wd-}z} z!4@jW$!Ycfyo1BW-jtI`Vpttq1;08ouj`&Ji3{C~2{G`vrEix-yMs~vM^WrjZz6~-;&%OG19ck zFeB_Mz=GlKEEZDzU_q;nm!>?Wm8Gae1vf$e7>{A!H;Q3KbfAqp^N-rpq~TiZ!|cXx 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matplotlib.pyplot as plt +import numpy as np + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent +SURFACE = "#fcfcfb" +INK = "#111111" +MUTED = "#77736c" +GRID = "#dedbd2" +RF = "#d95f02" +STRUCTURED = "#1b75bc" + +fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(10.8, 4.2), dpi=160) +fig.patch.set_facecolor(SURFACE) + +for ax in axes: + ax.set_facecolor(SURFACE) + ax.grid(axis="y", color=GRID, linewidth=0.8) + ax.set_axisbelow(True) + ax.spines[["top", "right"]].set_visible(False) + ax.tick_params(colors=MUTED, labelsize=8) + +kv = np.array([8, 16, 24], dtype=float) +actual = np.array([11.97, 19.92, 27.84]) +rf = np.array([9.46, 16.40, 24.52]) +structured_expected = np.array([12.0, 19.9, 27.9]) +axes[0].plot(kv, actual, "o-", color=INK, label="profile actual") +axes[0].plot(kv, rf, "s--", color=RF, label="current RF") +axes[0].plot( + kv, + structured_expected, + "^:", + color=STRUCTURED, + label="structured (expected)", +) +axes[0].set_xlabel("KV context (ktok)") +axes[0].set_ylabel("TP1 q8k attention time (ms)") +axes[0].set_title("(a) Continuous KV growth", loc="left", fontsize=10) +axes[0].legend(frameon=False, fontsize=8) + +labels = ["TP1\n.00125", "TP1\n.0025", "TP2\n.0025", "TP2\n.005", + "TP4\n.0025", "TP4\n.005", "TP4\n.01"] +x = np.arange(len(labels)) +v5_mean = np.array([-13.5, -17.7, -11.2, -14.1, 2.5, 2.9, -0.2]) +expected = np.array([-5, -8, -9, -11, 3, 3, 0]) +axes[1].axhspan(-15, 15, color=GRID, alpha=0.5) +axes[1].axhline(0, color=MUTED, linewidth=0.8) +axes[1].plot(x, v5_mean, "o-", color=RF, label="sim-v5 measured") +axes[1].plot(x, expected, "s--", color=STRUCTURED, label="H1 expected") +axes[1].set_xticks(x, labels) +axes[1].set_ylabel("TTFT mean bias (%)") +axes[1].set_title("(b) 7-cell trace gate", loc="left", fontsize=10) +axes[1].legend(frameon=False, fontsize=8) + +fig.suptitle( + "MOCK / schematic — EXP-ATTN-STRUCTURED (not measured results)", + x=0.01, + ha="left", + color=RF, + fontsize=9, +) +fig.tight_layout(rect=(0, 0, 1, 0.95)) +fig.savefig(ROOT / "figure-prototype.png", facecolor=SURFACE) +fig.savefig(ROOT / "figure-prototype.svg", facecolor=SURFACE) +print(ROOT / "figure-prototype.png") diff --git a/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/results/predictor-ablation.csv b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/results/predictor-ablation.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3f5e290 --- /dev/null +++ b/runs/frontier-attn-structured-v0/results/predictor-ablation.csv @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +candidate,training_rows,grid_fit_mape_pct,single_fit_mape_pct,heldout_context_mape_pct,heldout_context_max_abs_error_pct,prediction_min_ms,q_min_delta_ms,kv_min_delta_ms,monotone_and_nonnegative,tp +rf_all,29,15.074275515235467,19.842994757611535,44.40139318281943,82.78279487156401,0.06029164119272453,0.0,-4.2841601371801374e-05,False,1 +rf_single,23,11.834992526698676,22.893412972496023,34.45356428541224,62.49334437588834,0.059327708247725125,-0.00022153525203457564,-1.4336001873005433e-05,False,1 +structured_single,23,0.8432511364168856,2.227110646811972,0.841926169535806,2.0408978739639134,0.05679146709541477,0.0,0.0016745062683911627,True,1 +rf_all,29,13.812689689573157,17.879870012606048,44.20143320278334,82.0656368501208,0.06000113548192927,-0.004361070463210395,-0.009949388915300408,False,2 +rf_single,23,10.738962684891058,20.818820413545826,34.84360402100271,66.67253880294443,0.059971319361210015,-0.003811210796127021,-0.009949388915300408,False,2 +structured_single,23,1.518412258922364,6.226292654776418,1.6047958673086566,3.464671475193195,0.05767893331746252,0.0,0.0013929374121726124,True,2 +rf_all,29,14.117015331381916,15.49366794487052,43.53650868837558,81.33508178007524,0.05866772018640992,-0.0009967416035880083,-5.5955198407176e-05,False,4 +rf_single,23,12.07517666989496,17.672692652721008,34.14562332866605,62.31478818862995,0.058213693721655094,-0.0012244979345549661,-8.259841203689389e-05,False,4 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"runs/frontier-s3-real-v0" +BASE_REFERENCE = ( + REPO + / "runs/frontier-collective-joint-v0/counterfactual/joint-r2/manifest.json" +) +BASE_COMMIT = "deadc4a321f0baaa534c6ebd17f974123733cdc2" +EXPERIMENT_COMMIT = "1f8900a4ac64e45754b03d0aa7c1dddab65785cf" +PATCH = ROOT / "0001-Experiment-with-structured-attention-prefill-predict.patch" + + +def load_s3_module(): + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location( + "s3_prefix_replay", S3_REAL / "run_frontier_prefix_replay.py" + ) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.path.insert(0, str(S3_REAL)) + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module + + +def git(checkout: Path, *args: str) -> str: + return subprocess.check_output( + ["git", "-C", str(checkout), *args], text=True + ).strip() + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--trace", type=Path, required=True) + parser.add_argument("--output-root", type=Path, required=True) + parser.add_argument( + "--config", + choices=("tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns16", "tp1_mns16"), + required=True, + ) + parser.add_argument("--label", required=True) + parser.add_argument("--max-tokens", type=int, required=True) + parser.add_argument("--duration-s", type=float) + parser.add_argument("--cache-root", type=Path, required=True) + parser.add_argument( + "--frontier-checkout", + type=Path, + default=Path("/tmp/frontier-attn-structured-v0"), + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--attention-profile", + type=Path, + default=REPO + / "runs/frontier-prefill-kvgrowth-fix-v0/profiles/" + "profile-v5-kvgrowth/attention.csv", + ) + args = parser.parse_args() + + frontier = args.frontier_checkout.resolve() + profile = args.attention_profile.resolve() + if git(frontier, "rev-parse", "HEAD") != EXPERIMENT_COMMIT: + raise SystemExit(f"unexpected experiment checkout HEAD: {frontier}") + if git(frontier, "rev-parse", "HEAD^") != BASE_COMMIT: + raise SystemExit("experiment commit is not directly based on frozen Frontier") + if git(frontier, "status", "--porcelain"): + raise SystemExit("experiment Frontier checkout must be clean") + if not profile.is_file(): + raise SystemExit(f"attention profile missing: {profile}") + + reference = json.loads(BASE_REFERENCE.read_text()) + reference["frontier_checkout"] = str(frontier) + reference["frontier_commit"] = EXPERIMENT_COMMIT + generated_reference = ROOT / "frontier-reference.json" + generated_reference.write_text(json.dumps(reference, indent=2)) + + module = load_s3_module() + module.REFERENCE = generated_reference + module.EXPECTED_FRONTIER_COMMIT = EXPERIMENT_COMMIT + original_replace = module.replace_flag + + def replace_and_override(argv: list[str], flag: str, value: str) -> None: + original_replace(argv, flag, value) + if flag.endswith("trace_file"): + atten_flag = ( + "--random_forrest_execution_time_predictor_config_atten_input_file" + ) + original_replace(argv, atten_flag, str(profile)) + no_cache = ( + "--random_forrest_execution_time_predictor_config_no_cache" + ) + if no_cache in argv: + argv.remove(no_cache) + + module.replace_flag = replace_and_override + module.parse_args = lambda: args + module.main() + + manifest_path = args.output_root / "manifest.json" + manifest = json.loads(manifest_path.read_text()) + manifest.update( + { + "schema": "frontier-attn-structured-replay-v1", + "frontier_base_commit": BASE_COMMIT, + "frontier_experiment_commit": EXPERIMENT_COMMIT, + "frontier_patch": str(PATCH.resolve()), + "frontier_patch_sha256": module.sha256(PATCH), + "attention_profile_override": str(profile), + "attention_profile_sha256": module.sha256(profile), + "model_cache_enabled": True, + } + ) + manifest_path.write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2)) + print(f"structured replay done: {args.output_root}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main()