diff --git a/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/refined_protocol_manifest.json b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/refined_protocol_manifest.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..8671510
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/refined_protocol_manifest.json
@@ -0,0 +1,790 @@
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+  "selection": {
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+    "sha256": "f878e9af18f94dcfaced94a8e1e6b20a2f7d97d64aa862448025660dbbd965b2"
+  }
+}
diff --git a/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/report.md b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/report.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..dfe9855
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/report.md
@@ -0,0 +1,204 @@
+# Qwen3-235B FP8：Frontier 与 community vLLM config rank 对比
+
+## 结论
+
+在本实验限定的 Qwen3-235B-A22B-FP8、H20、prefill-only workload 上，经过 best-effort 补齐 FP8/MoE serving path 后，Frontier **能够选对满足 SLO 的 per-GPU throughput 最优配置**：`TP=4, MBT=16384`，`MNS=64/128` 并列。细化网格上的 Spearman rank correlation 为 `0.9487`，20 个可比较非 tie config pair 全部同序，选择 regret 为 `0`。
+
+但这不等于 Frontier 已精确模拟系统。原始粗网格给出 56/56 load labels 正确、Spearman=1 的表象；加入 decision-boundary rates 后，Frontier 在 33 个被测试边界点中产生 6 个 false-infeasible，均为两个 MNS 配置上可复现的稳定误差。它系统性地把三个 action family 的最大经验 SLO throughput 低估一个 `0.05 req/s` 档位：
+
+| TP | MBT | Frontier capacity | real capacity | real v2→v3 transition | 结论 |
+|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---|
+| 4 | 8192 | 0.15 | 0.20 | `0.20: 61→61`, `0.25: 60→60` | 稳定低估 0.05 |
+| 4 | 16384 | 0.25 | 0.30 | `0.30: 61→61`, `0.35: 59→59` | 稳定低估 0.05 |
+| 8 | 8192 | 0.40 | 0.45 | `0.45: 61→61`, `0.50: 60→60` | 稳定低估 0.05 |
+| 8 | 16384 | 0.45 | 0.45 | v2: `0.45: 61`, `0.50: 60` | 边界正确 |
+
+表中 pass count 分母均为 64，经验可行门槛为 61。每一行的两个 MNS 结果一致；v3 对前三行的两个 MNS 都做了 fresh-server 复测。
+
+因此，对这个 case 最准确的判断是：
+
+- Frontier 有较好的 **decision/ordinal fidelity**，不能再用“它找不到最优 config”作为该 case 的研究 premise。
+- Frontier 没有达到 **capacity calibration fidelity**，也没有完全学对 action effect；它适合筛选，但不能在 SLO knee 附近代替真机 capacity certification。
+- 粗网格上的“完全匹配”并不足以证明 simulator solve 了问题；它会同时掩盖绝对容量误差和错误的 action differential。
+
+## 固定实验口径
+
+| 项目 | 固定值 |
+|---|---|
+| model | `models/Qwen/Qwen3-235B-A22B-FP8` |
+| real runtime | community vLLM 0.10.2 |
+| hardware | dash0，8×NVIDIA H20 |
+| workload | prefill-only，raw completion，output tokens=1，prefix cache disabled |
+| config surface | `TP∈{4,8} × MNS∈{64,128} × MBT∈{8192,16384}` |
+| cohort | 64 个固定 prompt；所有 config/rate 的 request ID、顺序、输入长度完全相同 |
+| input length | p50=1478，p95=18439，max=29385，mean=3511.55 tokens |
+| rates | 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30, 0.35, 0.40, 0.45, 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, 1.50 req/s |
+| primary SLO | `TTFT ≤ 1000 ms + input_tokens / 8000 tokens/s`，至少 95% requests 通过 |
+| capacity | 所有 64 requests 完整结束后，最大被测试可行 offered rate；不做 early stop/二分单调假设 |
+| primary objective | capacity / TP，即 per-GPU request throughput |
+
+cohort 只通过 uniform arrival scaling 改变 load，不随 rate 重新抽样。该设计消除了 workload composition confound，但 64-request 固定 cohort 的结果仍是经验容量，不代表总体 workload distribution 的置信界。
+
+## Frontier best-effort 公平性
+
+这里比较的不是未经修改的 stock Frontier。为了避免“故意把 baseline 调差”的质疑，我们在真机 ranking 冻结前完成并冻结了以下补齐：
+
+- 使用 community vLLM 0.10.2 在 H20 上得到的真实 FP8 operator profiles；quantization contract 为 FP8 W8A8 dynamic activation、BF16 output/accumulation，而不是用 BF16 compute profile 冒充 FP8。
+- 补齐 Qwen MoE community serving path、MoE plan 与 serving entrypoint。
+- 按真实 expert route 构造 EP local lanes，并以最慢 lane 作为同步 critical path。
+- 修正 TP/EP-aware profile cache key，避免不同 topology 错用缓存结果。
+- 使用 batched lane prediction；与逐 lane exact path 做 byte-identical equivalence 后才用于完整 sweep，模拟运行加速约 2.57×。
+- KV block capacity 使用真机测量值：TP4=26101，TP8=62351。
+- Frontier refined 8×11=88 个结果在真机运行前冻结；旧 rates 的 56 个结果与先前 freeze byte-identical。没有用真机 v2/v3 结果回调 simulator 参数。
+
+相关实现与审计入口包括：
+
+- `fixed_cohort_rank.py`
+- `frontier_fp8_profile_contract.patch`
+- `frontier_moe_serving_path.patch`
+- `frontier_moe_ep_prefill_exact_cache.patch`
+- `frontier_moe_ep_prefill_use_batched_lanes.patch`
+- `frontier_moe_ep_prefill_batched_lane_predict.patch`
+
+这说明结果反映的是“给 Frontier 当前抽象最大的合理帮助以后，它能做到什么”，不是 stock baseline 的缺功能测试。
+
+## 三阶段实验结果
+
+### v1：blind 全表面、粗网格
+
+Frontier 先冻结，再运行 community vLLM 的 8 configs × 7 rates：
+
+- 56/56 config-load primary feasibility labels 正确。
+- raw capacity 与 per-GPU efficiency 的 top set 均完全匹配。
+- Spearman=1，20/20 非 tie pair 同序，top-1 regret=0。
+- 但 3584 个 request 的 TTFT MAE 为 124.20 ms，MAPE 为 20.98%，平均 `predicted-real=+93.20 ms`。
+- request-level SLO label accuracy 为 96.82%；Frontier/real failure-set Jaccard 仅 0.7569（103 false fail、11 false pass）。
+
+因此，aggregate capacity 完全匹配时，具体失败请求和 request latency mechanism 已明显不匹配。
+
+### v2：反向 config/rate 顺序，加入细化边界
+
+v2 只重跑预注册 SLO transition 及中间 refinement rates，共 8 configs、33 loads、2112 requests：
+
+- 0 server/request failure，0 early stop，0 monotonicity violation；所有 trace hash 匹配 refined protocol。
+- per-GPU top set 仍精确匹配：`TP4, MBT16384, MNS64/128`。
+- Frontier/real per-GPU capacity Spearman=0.9487，20/20 非 tie pair 同序，regret=0。
+- 33 个边界点中 27 个 feasibility label 正确；6 个错误全部是 false-infeasible，没有 false-feasible。
+- pass-rate MAE=1.278 percentage points，平均 `Frontier-real=-1.278 pp`。
+- 2112 个 request 的 TTFT MAE=83.15 ms，MAPE=16.34%，平均 `predicted-real=+53.02 ms`。
+- request SLO label accuracy=98.34%，failure-set Jaccard=0.7535。
+
+v1 与 v2 的 19 个共同 config-load 点包含 1216 个相同 requests：
+
+- 真机 trial-to-trial TTFT MAE=14.05 ms，absolute-error p95=57.94 ms，平均 v2-v1=+1.75 ms。
+- primary request label 只有 1/1216 flip；19/19 load labels 和 8/8 原始网格 capacity 全部稳定。
+- Frontier 有 23 个 request label 在两次真机 trial 中都稳定预测错误。
+
+这排除了 config order 和普通 runtime noise 是主要 residual 来源。
+
+### v3：只复测 v2 的全部争议 transition
+
+v3 的选择规则是 v2 中所有 Frontier/real primary capacity 不同的 config；它是 data-dependent replication，不作为新的 blind primary result。共 6 configs、12 loads、768 requests：
+
+- 0 failure/early-stop/monotonicity violation，trace hash 全部匹配。
+- v2 与 v3 的 768/768 primary request labels 完全一致，failure-set Jaccard=1.0。
+- 12/12 config-load labels、6/6 capacity boundaries 完全一致。
+- 真机 trial-to-trial TTFT MAE=14.98 ms，absolute-error p95=62.52 ms，平均 v3-v2=+1.55 ms。
+- Frontier 在该争议集合上仍有 6/12 false-infeasible；18 个 request labels 在 v2/v3 都稳定预测错误。
+
+这证明细化边界误差不是一次随机跨阈值。
+
+## 系统层面的理解
+
+### 1. 绝对误差与 action differential 必须分开
+
+如果只是一个全局 latency scale 偏差，所有 topology 下 MBT 的相对收益应基本保持。数据并非如此：
+
+- TP4：Frontier 预测 MBT `8192→16384` 的 capacity 增益为 `0.15→0.25`，即 +0.10 req/s；真机为 `0.20→0.30`，同样 +0.10。
+- TP8：Frontier 预测 `0.40→0.45`，即 +0.05；真机为 `0.45→0.45`，实际增益为 0。
+
+也就是说，Frontier 在 TP4 学对了 MBT differential、错了 absolute offset；在 TP8 则连 differential 都错了。该误差依赖 TP/EP topology，不能靠一个全局 calibration factor 修复。这正是 execution configuration 与 scheduler state/action effect 相互耦合的证据。
+
+### 2. 决策正确不代表 simulator 对系统有正确解释
+
+per-GPU objective 下，TP4/MBT16384 与其他配置有足够大的 margin，所以即便 capacity 每类偏差 0.05，最优 config 仍不变。raw single-replica objective 下，Frontier 只把 TP8/MBT16384 列为 top set，而真机四个 TP8 config 全部在 0.45 并列；虽然从 Frontier top set 中任选仍是 zero regret，但它虚构了 TP8 上 MBT 的收益。
+
+因此需要同时报告：
+
+1. selected-config regret；
+2. rank/order fidelity；
+3. capacity error；
+4. action differential error；
+5. request/failure-set fidelity。
+
+只报其中任意一层都会得到偏颇结论。
+
+### 3. residual 是状态/长度相关尾部误差，不是 profile 全局比例错误
+
+v2 中 Frontier 的平均 signed TTFT error 随输入长度显著变化：
+
+| input tokens | mean `predicted-real` | MAE |
+|---|---:|---:|
+| [0,1024) | -3.61 ms | 40.74 ms |
+| [1024,2048) | +44.45 ms | 57.63 ms |
+| [2048,4096) | +91.21 ms | 109.73 ms |
+| [4096,8192) | +138.80 ms | 140.80 ms |
+| [8192,16384) | +237.37 ms | 237.37 ms |
+| [16384,32769) | +147.36 ms | 240.89 ms |
+
+短请求甚至略偏乐观，中长请求明显偏保守；与此同时 aggregate load label 只由 1–2 个请求是否跨 SLO 阈值决定。这更像 batch composition、critical-lane/EP synchronization 和 queueing state 共同造成的 residual，而不是 operator profile 全局慢了固定百分比。
+
+### 4. MNS 在该 workload 上是非活跃维度，但不能外推
+
+在所有共同测试点中，MNS=64/128 的 pass counts 基本逐点相同，Frontier 也预测 tie。对这个 prefill-only、固定 cohort、当前 concurrency 范围，MBT/token budget 和 topology 是活跃因素，MNS 没有形成独立瓶颈。但 decode/mixed workload 的 sequence residency、KV pressure 和 iteration cadence 不同，不能据此宣称 MNS 普遍无效。
+
+## 对研究方向的判断
+
+这个 case 不支持以下论文 premise：
+
+> Frontier 类 simulator 无法为 Qwen3-235B FP8 选择最优配置，所以必须由一个新 tuner 替代。
+
+在公平补齐 FP8/MoE path 后，它已经能以 zero regret 选出该 workload 的 per-GPU 最优配置。继续用这一 case 证明“simulator 排序失败”会被 reviewer 用本组数据直接反驳。
+
+本 case 真正揭示、且更有 systems 内容的问题是：
+
+> 一个 simulator 可以在 coarse grid 上拥有完美 rank，并在最终 objective 上 zero regret，同时仍错误表达 topology-dependent action differential 和 SLO knee；我们如何判断一个模拟决策何时足够可信，何时必须回到真机？
+
+可继续发展的研究问题包括：
+
+- decision-aware uncertainty：不追求每条 TTFT 精确，而是给 config ordering/capacity boundary 提供可校验置信区间。
+- counterexample-guided measurement：只在模拟 action margin 小或 differential 不稳定的 boundary/state 上调用真机，而不是全表面 sweep。
+- topology-aware residual model：显式建模 TP/EP、batch composition、critical lane 与输入长度共同造成的尾部偏差，避免全局比例校准。
+- distinguish safe screening from certification：Frontier 当前在该 case 是保守筛选器（0 false-feasible），但不是精确 capacity certifier。
+
+下一步要判断这是否足以构成更一般的 research premise，应转向已计划的 Qwen3-235B decode-only 和 mixed prefill/decode case。它们会激活 KV state、replica residency、iteration cadence 和 communication overlap；如果只有这些 case 出现稳定排序/regret 错误，研究问题就应围绕 simulator 在 stateful execution/scheduling coupling 下的决策失效，而不是泛化地宣称 simulator 不工作。
+
+## 证据与复现
+
+本目录保存紧凑 comparison、trial-stability 与 manifest；完整 request-level freeze 保留在 dash0：
+
+`/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1`
+
+关键 artifact SHA256：
+
+| artifact | SHA256 |
+|---|---|
+| refined protocol manifest | `695c0500b9a5d51cdd4e39b722e3c9db15f8bed48795454f4d0d6442d24929cb` |
+| Frontier refined freeze | `318b3c7742c8371191e2dbd429f0e0e63c1a42f4806a599e018b0548cb9d6336` |
+| v1 blind comparison | `fc87c54179b891e2148a738dbdfeed328595fa32198f2248c892c890625c9fe2` |
+| v2 run manifest | `cf1a722043f42ff8f435e3521d0b2b2892a8ea0922e1e4870ec10fba26c0f998` |
+| v2 community freeze | `5a9c59fc4082db47bec7b59432e9ebe9f907f70baa95a9f0d3480e85f8992ff2` |
+| v2 comparison | `d21f2dd846c4d8361668f312f0c063f2e8f949ec7a9d3b19100c813b3da3b586` |
+| v1-v2 stability | `a522189618ad26df68f18d2d9b67c38b1fe59c5c8f13af633eced0b092f8e06d` |
+| v3 run manifest | `0f8908671b8903e516f0dc8e68f556483a15ff7ec51f7cfbc18a9c74b3a5ba61` |
+| v3 community freeze | `4edd25edde3d7508d8feb9b024b5bca4ba6a5f25335ac84008f09c524ed7bc34` |
+| v3 comparison | `e04f40ead995e007d64b2f6f0f2731999204907770f05b4c2d037d224e49c573` |
+| v2-v3 stability | `7be2ff27dd0393c99f0512bd6a0b7b35eb404ee0bfd22bd3ec33a4b8ce14748b` |
+
+## 限制
+
+- 只测试了一个模型、H20、community vLLM 0.10.2 和 prefill-only workload。
+- 固定 64-request cohort 适合 simulator-vs-real paired comparison，但不足以给总体 workload distribution 的 95% SLO capacity 做统计认证。
+- v3 是在观察 v2 后选择全部争议点的 replication，不是 blind discovery dataset。
+- operator profiles、KV capacity 和 MoE route contract 本身使用了真机信息；本结果评估的是 best-effort simulator 的决策能力与剩余误差，不是 zero-measurement transfer。
+- 没有测试 decode、mixed phase、prefix caching、multi-replica placement、异构 GPU 或跨节点通信。
diff --git a/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v1_blind_comparison.json b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v1_blind_comparison.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..001eafa
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v1_blind_comparison.json
@@ -0,0 +1,6384 @@
+{
+  "community_freeze": {
+    "path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v1-blind/community_ranking_frozen.json",
+    "sha256": "055fe2cf1e0c01a0503145a272097b8ceda257f1b86bdae39abf17277d9a18d9"
+  },
+  "created_unix_s": 1784139490.8308787,
+  "frontier_freeze": {
+    "path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/frontier-v3-batched-par4/frontier_ranking_frozen.json",
+    "sha256": "9a971f25cc97975845968cc776241c7d44a49dee2ec2f015f227bcff82e66971"
+  },
+  "pass_rate_surface_residuals": {
+    "legacy_step_1s_2s": {
+      "false_feasible_points": 0,
+      "false_infeasible_points": 0,
+      "feasibility_label_accuracy": 1.0,
+      "mae": 0.041294642857142856,
+      "matched_config_load_points": 56,
+      "max_absolute_error": 0.15625,
+      "signed_error_mean": -0.03962053571428571
+    },
+    "linear_10k": {
+      "false_feasible_points": 2,
+      "false_infeasible_points": 0,
+      "feasibility_label_accuracy": 0.9642857142857143,
+      "mae": 0.033482142857142856,
+      "matched_config_load_points": 56,
+      "max_absolute_error": 0.140625,
+      "signed_error_mean": -0.029575892857142856
+    },
+    "linear_6k": {
+      "false_feasible_points": 0,
+      "false_infeasible_points": 1,
+      "feasibility_label_accuracy": 0.9821428571428571,
+      "mae": 0.022600446428571428,
+      "matched_config_load_points": 56,
+      "max_absolute_error": 0.109375,
+      "signed_error_mean": -0.020926339285714284
+    },
+    "linear_8k_primary": {
+      "false_feasible_points": 0,
+      "false_infeasible_points": 0,
+      "feasibility_label_accuracy": 1.0,
+      "mae": 0.026227678571428572,
+      "matched_config_load_points": 56,
+      "max_absolute_error": 0.125,
+      "signed_error_mean": -0.025669642857142856
+    }
+  },
+  "primary_slo": "linear_8k_primary",
+  "request_level_ttft_residuals": {
+    "by_input_bin": {
+      "[0,1024)": {
+        "count": 1512,
+        "mae_ms": 80.67140471814413,
+        "signed_error_ms_mean": 40.081426915862
+      },
+      "[1024,2048)": {
+        "count": 1176,
+        "mae_ms": 113.2322821016931,
+        "signed_error_ms_mean": 95.35554067785822
+      },
+      "[16384,32769)": {
+        "count": 224,
+        "mae_ms": 248.44144323616518,
+        "signed_error_ms_mean": 151.67347724381298
+      },
+      "[2048,4096)": {
+        "count": 224,
+        "mae_ms": 146.4061790530529,
+        "signed_error_ms_mean": 116.84675686840379
+      },
+      "[4096,8192)": {
+        "count": 168,
+        "mae_ms": 150.66978579178092,
+        "signed_error_ms_mean": 148.27281627513304
+      },
+      "[8192,16384)": {
+        "count": 280,
+        "mae_ms": 272.270894330094,
+        "signed_error_ms_mean": 272.270894330094
+      }
+    },
+    "mae_ms": 124.19937765168956,
+    "mape": 0.20982454623810715,
+    "matched_successful_requests": 3584,
+    "signed_error_ms_mean": 93.2018552795005
+  },
+  "request_slo_classification": {
+    "legacy_step_1s_2s": {
+      "by_config_load": [
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 1.0,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 64,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.15
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [
+            "1098"
+          ],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.984375,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 63,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.25
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1818",
+            "7422"
+          ],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.96875,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 62,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.35
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1818",
+            "6611"
+          ],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.96875,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 62,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.5
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1799",
+            "3056",
+            "6611",
+            "7741"
+          ],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.9375,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 60,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.75
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "3379",
+            "6611",
+            "7981"
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+          "label_accuracy": 0.953125,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 61,
+          "offered_request_rate": 1.0
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1935",
+            "4163",
+            "4323",
+            "6611"
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+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 60,
+          "offered_request_rate": 1.5
+        },
+        {
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+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [
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+          "offered_request_rate": 0.15
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+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [
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+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 62,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.25
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt8192",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1818",
+            "6611",
+            "7422"
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+          "label_accuracy": 0.953125,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 61,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.35
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt8192",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1818",
+            "6611"
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+          "matching_labels": 62,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.5
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+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt8192",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1799",
+            "6611",
+            "7741"
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+          "label_accuracy": 0.953125,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 61,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.75
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt8192",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "15069",
+            "1799",
+            "3379",
+            "7981"
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+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.9375,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 60,
+          "offered_request_rate": 1.0
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns128_mbt8192",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1799",
+            "1935",
+            "4163",
+            "4323",
+            "8612"
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+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.921875,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 59,
+          "offered_request_rate": 1.5
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns64_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 1.0,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 64,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.15
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns64_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 1.0,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 64,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.25
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns64_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1818",
+            "7422"
+          ],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.96875,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 62,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.35
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns64_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1818",
+            "6611"
+          ],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.96875,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 62,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.5
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns64_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1799",
+            "3056",
+            "6611",
+            "7741"
+          ],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.9375,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 60,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.75
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns64_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "3379",
+            "6611",
+            "7981"
+          ],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.953125,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 61,
+          "offered_request_rate": 1.0
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns64_mbt16384",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [
+            "1935",
+            "4163",
+            "4323",
+            "6611"
+          ],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [],
+          "label_accuracy": 0.9375,
+          "matched_requests": 64,
+          "matching_labels": 60,
+          "offered_request_rate": 1.5
+        },
+        {
+          "config": "tp4_mns64_mbt8192",
+          "false_slo_fail_request_ids": [],
+          "false_slo_pass_request_ids": [
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+        "frontier_capacity": {
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+          "tp8_mns64_mbt8192"
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+          "tp8_mns64_mbt8192"
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+          "frontier_capacity": {
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+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
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+            "frontier_tied_pairs": 2,
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+          "real_capacity": {
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+            "tp4_mns128_mbt8192": 0.15,
+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384": 0.25,
+            "tp4_mns64_mbt8192": 0.15
+          },
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+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
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+          "top1_regret_fraction_worst_tie_break": 0.0,
+          "top1_set_intersection": [
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+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
+          ],
+          "top1_set_match": true
+        },
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+          "frontier_capacity": {
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+          },
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+            "tp8_mns128_mbt8192",
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt16384",
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt8192"
+          ],
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+            "tp8_mns64_mbt8192": 0.35
+          },
+          "real_top1_set": [
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+            "tp8_mns128_mbt8192",
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt16384",
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt8192"
+          ],
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+          "top1_regret_fraction_best_tie_break": 0.0,
+          "top1_regret_fraction_worst_tie_break": 0.0,
+          "top1_set_intersection": [
+            "tp8_mns128_mbt16384",
+            "tp8_mns128_mbt8192",
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt16384",
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt8192"
+          ],
+          "top1_set_match": true
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  }
+}
diff --git a/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v1_v2_trial_stability.json b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v1_v2_trial_stability.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b64a7d5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v1_v2_trial_stability.json
@@ -0,0 +1,1038 @@
+{
+  "created_unix_s": 1784150483.6645162,
+  "inputs": {
+    "first_community_freeze": {
+      "path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v1-blind/community_ranking_frozen.json",
+      "sha256": "055fe2cf1e0c01a0503145a272097b8ceda257f1b86bdae39abf17277d9a18d9"
+    },
+    "frontier_freeze": {
+      "path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/refinement-v1/frontier-v4-refined-rates-batched-par4/frontier_ranking_frozen.json",
+      "sha256": "318b3c7742c8371191e2dbd429f0e0e63c1a42f4806a599e018b0548cb9d6336"
+    },
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diff --git a/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v2_refined_comparison.json b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v2_refined_comparison.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9574186
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v2_refined_comparison.json
@@ -0,0 +1,5248 @@
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+          "tp8_mns64_mbt16384"
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+          "frontier_capacity": {
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+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
+          ],
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+            "comparable_non_tied_pairs": 4,
+            "correct_pairs": 4,
+            "frontier_tied_pairs": 2,
+            "real_tied_pairs": 2
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+          "real_capacity": {
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+            "tp4_mns128_mbt8192": 0.2,
+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384": 0.3,
+            "tp4_mns64_mbt8192": 0.2
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+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
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+          "top1_regret_fraction_worst_tie_break": 0.0,
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+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
+          ],
+          "top1_set_match": true
+        },
+        "tp8": {
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+          "frontier_capacity": {
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+            "tp8_mns64_mbt16384": 0.45,
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt8192": 0.4
+          },
+          "frontier_top1_set": [
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+            "tp8_mns64_mbt16384"
+          ],
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+          },
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+          "real_capacity": {
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+            "tp8_mns128_mbt8192": 0.45,
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt16384": 0.45,
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt8192": 0.45
+          },
+          "real_top1_set": [
+            "tp8_mns128_mbt16384",
+            "tp8_mns128_mbt8192",
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt16384",
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt8192"
+          ],
+          "spearman_rank_correlation": null,
+          "top1_regret_fraction_best_tie_break": 0.0,
+          "top1_regret_fraction_worst_tie_break": 0.0,
+          "top1_set_intersection": [
+            "tp8_mns128_mbt16384",
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt16384"
+          ],
+          "top1_set_match": false
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  }
+}
diff --git a/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v2_run_manifest.json b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v2_run_manifest.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..189ada2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v2_run_manifest.json
@@ -0,0 +1,583 @@
+{
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+        "mbt": 16384,
+        "mns": 128,
+        "name": "tp8_mns128_mbt16384",
+        "num_gpu_blocks": 62351,
+        "tp": 8
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+      "engine_log_path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v2-boundary-reverse/runs/tp8_mns128_mbt16384/engine.log",
+      "execution_index": 1,
+      "rate_order": [
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+      "study_path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v1-blind/studies/tp8/study.json"
+    },
+    {
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+        "mbt": 16384,
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+        "name": "tp8_mns64_mbt16384",
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+        "tp": 8
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+      "execution_index": 2,
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+      "study_path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v1-blind/studies/tp8/study.json"
+    },
+    {
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+      "study_path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v1-blind/studies/tp4/study.json"
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+      "study_path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v1-blind/studies/tp8/study.json"
+    },
+    {
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+      "study_path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v1-blind/studies/tp4/study.json"
+    },
+    {
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+      "execution_index": 7,
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+      "study_path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v1-blind/studies/tp4/study.json"
+    },
+    {
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+      "execution_index": 8,
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+    "path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/models/Qwen/Qwen3-235B-A22B-FP8"
+  },
+  "protocol_manifest": {
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+    "sha256": "695c0500b9a5d51cdd4e39b722e3c9db15f8bed48795454f4d0d6442d24929cb"
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+    "vllm": "/tmp/wjh-frontier-vllm0102-smoke/.venv/bin/vllm"
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+  "schema": "community-qwen235b-prefill-fixed-cohort-v1",
+  "studies": {
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+      "sha256": "ea0d7d31e4a5102cf530e900754debb1d8b18f860748ead88ebf7de57d92faa3"
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+      "sha256": "48c4d917b5531f742a05bab3bcd5c880f2eaddf9992b7629e9f48d8e00fd1906"
+    }
+  }
+}
diff --git a/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v2_v3_trial_stability.json b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v2_v3_trial_stability.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..94ea5de
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v2_v3_trial_stability.json
@@ -0,0 +1,732 @@
+{
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+  "inputs": {
+    "first_community_freeze": {
+      "path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v2-boundary-reverse/community_ranking_frozen.json",
+      "sha256": "5a9c59fc4082db47bec7b59432e9ebe9f907f70baa95a9f0d3480e85f8992ff2"
+    },
+    "frontier_freeze": {
+      "path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/refinement-v1/frontier-v4-refined-rates-batched-par4/frontier_ranking_frozen.json",
+      "sha256": "318b3c7742c8371191e2dbd429f0e0e63c1a42f4806a599e018b0548cb9d6336"
+    },
+    "repeat_community_freeze": {
+      "path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/frontier-community-qwen235-smoke-20260715/rankable-fixed-cohort-v1/community-v3-primary-disputed/community_ranking_frozen.json",
+      "sha256": "4edd25edde3d7508d8feb9b024b5bca4ba6a5f25335ac84008f09c524ed7bc34"
+    }
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+        "tp4_mns64_mbt16384": 0.075,
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+        "tp8_mns128_mbt8192": 0.05625,
+        "tp8_mns64_mbt16384": 0.05625,
+        "tp8_mns64_mbt8192": 0.05625
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+          "first_passed_request_count": 58,
+          "frontier_feasible": false,
+          "frontier_passed_request_count": 56,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.3,
+          "repeat_feasible": false,
+          "repeat_passed_request_count": 58
+        },
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+          "repeat_passed_request_count": 56
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+          "frontier_feasible": false,
+          "frontier_passed_request_count": 57,
+          "offered_request_rate": 0.25,
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+          "repeat_passed_request_count": 57
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+        {
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+}
diff --git a/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v3_run_manifest.json b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v3_run_manifest.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..99aab5f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v3_run_manifest.json
@@ -0,0 +1,345 @@
+{
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diff --git a/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v3_targeted_comparison.json b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v3_targeted_comparison.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..485ca5e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/v3_targeted_comparison.json
@@ -0,0 +1,3830 @@
+{
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+          "tp4_mns128_mbt8192": 0.05,
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+          "tp8_mns128_mbt8192": 0.05625,
+          "tp8_mns64_mbt8192": 0.05625
+        },
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+          "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
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+        "top1_set_intersection": [
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+          "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
+        ],
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+      },
+      "real_ranking": [
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+            "mns": 128,
+            "name": "tp4_mns128_mbt16384",
+            "num_gpu_blocks": 26101,
+            "tp": 4
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+          "maximum_tested_feasible_request_rate": 0.3,
+          "maximum_tested_feasible_request_rate_per_gpu": 0.075,
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+          "tested_rates": [
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+            0.35
+          ],
+          "upper_censored": false
+        },
+        {
+          "config": {
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+            "name": "tp4_mns64_mbt16384",
+            "num_gpu_blocks": 26101,
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+          "upper_censored": false
+        },
+        {
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+            "name": "tp8_mns128_mbt8192",
+            "num_gpu_blocks": 62351,
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+          "upper_censored": false
+        },
+        {
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+            "name": "tp8_mns64_mbt8192",
+            "num_gpu_blocks": 62351,
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+            false
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+          "upper_censored": false
+        },
+        {
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+          "upper_censored": false
+        },
+        {
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+            "mns": 64,
+            "name": "tp4_mns64_mbt8192",
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+            "tp": 4
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+          "upper_censored": false
+        }
+      ],
+      "single_replica_raw_capacity": {
+        "capacity_field": "maximum_tested_feasible_request_rate",
+        "frontier_capacity": {
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+          "tp4_mns64_mbt16384": 0.25,
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+          "tp8_mns128_mbt8192": 0.4,
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+          "tp8_mns64_mbt8192": 0.4
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+        "frontier_top1_set": [
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+          "tp8_mns64_mbt16384"
+        ],
+        "pairwise_ordering": {
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+          "correct_pairs": 12,
+          "frontier_tied_pairs": 3,
+          "real_tied_pairs": 3
+        },
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+        "real_capacity": {
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+          "tp4_mns64_mbt16384": 0.3,
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+          "tp8_mns64_mbt8192": 0.45
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+          "tp8_mns64_mbt8192"
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+        "spearman_rank_correlation": 1.0,
+        "top1_regret_fraction_best_tie_break": null,
+        "top1_regret_fraction_worst_tie_break": null,
+        "top1_set_intersection": [],
+        "top1_set_match": false
+      },
+      "within_topology_raw_capacity": {
+        "tp4": {
+          "capacity_field": "maximum_tested_feasible_request_rate",
+          "frontier_capacity": {
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+            "tp4_mns128_mbt8192": 0.15,
+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384": 0.25,
+            "tp4_mns64_mbt8192": 0.15
+          },
+          "frontier_top1_set": [
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+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
+          ],
+          "pairwise_ordering": {
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+            "comparable_non_tied_pairs": 4,
+            "correct_pairs": 4,
+            "frontier_tied_pairs": 2,
+            "real_tied_pairs": 2
+          },
+          "rankable": true,
+          "real_capacity": {
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+            "tp4_mns128_mbt8192": 0.2,
+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384": 0.3,
+            "tp4_mns64_mbt8192": 0.2
+          },
+          "real_top1_set": [
+            "tp4_mns128_mbt16384",
+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
+          ],
+          "spearman_rank_correlation": 1.0,
+          "top1_regret_fraction_best_tie_break": 0.0,
+          "top1_regret_fraction_worst_tie_break": 0.0,
+          "top1_set_intersection": [
+            "tp4_mns128_mbt16384",
+            "tp4_mns64_mbt16384"
+          ],
+          "top1_set_match": true
+        },
+        "tp8": {
+          "capacity_field": "maximum_tested_feasible_request_rate",
+          "frontier_capacity": {
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+            "tp8_mns128_mbt8192": 0.4,
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt16384": 0.45,
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt8192": 0.4
+          },
+          "frontier_top1_set": [
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+            "tp8_mns64_mbt16384"
+          ],
+          "pairwise_ordering": {
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+            "comparable_non_tied_pairs": 0,
+            "correct_pairs": 0,
+            "frontier_tied_pairs": 1,
+            "real_tied_pairs": 1
+          },
+          "rankable": true,
+          "real_capacity": {
+            "tp8_mns128_mbt8192": 0.45,
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt8192": 0.45
+          },
+          "real_top1_set": [
+            "tp8_mns128_mbt8192",
+            "tp8_mns64_mbt8192"
+          ],
+          "spearman_rank_correlation": null,
+          "top1_regret_fraction_best_tie_break": null,
+          "top1_regret_fraction_worst_tie_break": null,
+          "top1_set_intersection": [],
+          "top1_set_match": false
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  }
+}