diff --git a/runs/fidelity-headroom/analyze_pilot_e2e.py b/runs/fidelity-headroom/analyze_pilot_e2e.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..09a6581
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/fidelity-headroom/analyze_pilot_e2e.py
@@ -0,0 +1,429 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Replay the P1 simulator shortlist under full and prefix policies."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import math
+import subprocess
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Any
+
+from analyze_prefixes import numeric, sha256_file
+
+
+AITUNER_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+FROZEN_K = 2
+CUTOFF_S = 5.0
+THRESHOLD = 0.95
+
+
+def git_capture(*arguments: str) -> str:
+    return subprocess.run(
+        ["git", "-C", str(AITUNER_ROOT), *arguments],
+        check=True,
+        text=True,
+        stdout=subprocess.PIPE,
+        stderr=subprocess.PIPE,
+    ).stdout
+
+
+def setup_costs(state: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, float]:
+    result = {}
+    for cell, payload in state["cells"].items():
+        tp = int(payload["tp"])
+        annotation_intervals = sum(
+            float(run["elapsed_s"]) * tp / 3600.0
+            for run in payload["runs"]
+            if run["role"] not in {"low1", "high1"}
+        )
+        primary_intervals = sum(
+            float(run["elapsed_s"]) * tp / 3600.0
+            for run in payload["runs"]
+            if run["role"] in {"low1", "high1"}
+        )
+        setup = float(payload["gpu_hours"]) - annotation_intervals - primary_intervals
+        if setup < -1e-12:
+            raise ValueError(f"negative inferred setup cost: {cell}={setup}")
+        result[cell] = max(0.0, setup)
+    return result
+
+
+def build_candidates(
+    manifest: dict[str, Any],
+    state: dict[str, Any],
+    strong: dict[str, Any],
+) -> tuple[list[dict[str, Any]], list[dict[str, Any]]]:
+    baseline_probability = strong["headline"]["sim_plus_outcome"]["probability"]
+    instrument_probability = strong["headline"][
+        "sim_plus_outcome_plus_instrumentation"
+    ]["probability"]
+    setup = setup_costs(state)
+    anchors = []
+    for detail, baseline_p, instrument_p in zip(
+        strong["pilot_examples"], baseline_probability, instrument_probability
+    ):
+        cell = str(detail["cell"])
+        level = str(detail["level"])
+        role = f"{level}1"
+        selection = manifest["cells"][cell]["targets"][level]["selections"][role]
+        run = next(
+            item for item in state["cells"][cell]["runs"] if item["role"] == role
+        )
+        tp = int(state["cells"][cell]["tp"])
+        full_cost = float(run["elapsed_s"]) * tp / 3600.0
+        prefix_cost = min(CUTOFF_S, float(run["elapsed_s"])) * tp / 3600.0
+        anchors.append(
+            {
+                "cell": cell,
+                "level": level,
+                "role": role,
+                "tp": tp,
+                "real_feasible": bool(detail["adjudicated_feasible"]),
+                "real_goodput_req_s_per_gpu": float(
+                    selection["offered_req_s_per_gpu"]
+                ),
+                "sim_feasible": bool(detail["sim_slo_feasible"]),
+                "sim_pass_rate": float(detail["sim_slo_pass_rate"]),
+                "sim_throughput_req_s_per_gpu": float(
+                    detail["sim_completed_throughput_per_gpu"]
+                ),
+                "baseline_probability": float(baseline_p),
+                "instrument_probability": float(instrument_p),
+                "setup_h20_hours": setup[cell],
+                "full_trial_h20_hours": full_cost,
+                "prefix_h20_hours": prefix_cost,
+            }
+        )
+
+    candidates = []
+    for cell in sorted(manifest["cells"]):
+        feasible = [
+            anchor for anchor in anchors if anchor["cell"] == cell and anchor["sim_feasible"]
+        ]
+        if not feasible:
+            continue
+        candidates.append(
+            max(feasible, key=lambda anchor: anchor["sim_throughput_req_s_per_gpu"])
+        )
+    candidates.sort(
+        key=lambda anchor: (
+            -anchor["sim_throughput_req_s_per_gpu"],
+            anchor["cell"],
+        )
+    )
+    return anchors, candidates
+
+
+def expanded_top_k(candidates: list[dict[str, Any]], k: int) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
+    if not candidates or k <= 0:
+        return []
+    boundary = candidates[min(k, len(candidates)) - 1][
+        "sim_throughput_req_s_per_gpu"
+    ]
+    return [
+        candidate
+        for candidate in candidates
+        if candidate["sim_throughput_req_s_per_gpu"] >= boundary - 1e-12
+    ]
+
+
+def selected_result(
+    evaluated: list[dict[str, Any]], feasible_key: str
+) -> tuple[str | None, float | None]:
+    feasible = [candidate for candidate in evaluated if candidate[feasible_key]]
+    if not feasible:
+        return None, None
+    best = max(feasible, key=lambda candidate: candidate["real_goodput_req_s_per_gpu"])
+    return str(best["cell"]), float(best["real_goodput_req_s_per_gpu"])
+
+
+def replay(
+    shortlist: list[dict[str, Any]],
+    *,
+    probability_key: str | None,
+    oracle_goodput: float,
+    common_failure_h20_hours: float,
+) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    evaluated = []
+    online_cost = 0.0
+    early_accept = 0
+    early_reject = 0
+    false_accept = 0
+    false_reject = 0
+    for candidate in shortlist:
+        current = dict(candidate)
+        online_cost += current["setup_h20_hours"]
+        if probability_key is None:
+            predicted_feasible = current["real_feasible"]
+            online_cost += current["full_trial_h20_hours"]
+            action = "full"
+        else:
+            probability = float(current[probability_key])
+            if probability >= THRESHOLD:
+                predicted_feasible = True
+                early_accept += 1
+                online_cost += current["prefix_h20_hours"]
+                action = "early_accept"
+                false_accept += int(not current["real_feasible"])
+            elif probability <= 1.0 - THRESHOLD:
+                predicted_feasible = False
+                early_reject += 1
+                online_cost += current["prefix_h20_hours"]
+                action = "early_reject"
+                false_reject += int(current["real_feasible"])
+            else:
+                predicted_feasible = current["real_feasible"]
+                online_cost += current["full_trial_h20_hours"]
+                action = "continue_full"
+        current["policy_feasible"] = predicted_feasible
+        current["action"] = action
+        evaluated.append(current)
+    selected_cell, selected_goodput = selected_result(evaluated, "policy_feasible")
+    regret = (
+        1.0 - selected_goodput / oracle_goodput
+        if selected_goodput is not None and oracle_goodput > 0
+        else None
+    )
+    return {
+        "selected_cell": selected_cell,
+        "selected_real_goodput_req_s_per_gpu": selected_goodput,
+        "real_regret": regret,
+        "online_h20_hours": online_cost,
+        "conservative_h20_hours_with_prior_failure": (
+            online_cost + common_failure_h20_hours
+        ),
+        "early_accept": early_accept,
+        "early_reject": early_reject,
+        "false_accept": false_accept,
+        "false_reject": false_reject,
+        "evaluated": [
+            {
+                "cell": item["cell"],
+                "level": item["level"],
+                "action": item["action"],
+                "real_feasible": item["real_feasible"],
+                "policy_feasible": item["policy_feasible"],
+            }
+            for item in evaluated
+        ],
+    }
+
+
+def analyze(
+    manifest_path: Path,
+    state_path: Path,
+    prior_state_path: Path,
+    strong_path: Path,
+) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    manifest = json.loads(manifest_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+    state = json.loads(state_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+    prior = json.loads(prior_state_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+    strong = json.loads(strong_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+    anchors, candidates = build_candidates(manifest, state, strong)
+    oracle_anchor = max(
+        (anchor for anchor in anchors if anchor["real_feasible"]),
+        key=lambda anchor: anchor["real_goodput_req_s_per_gpu"],
+    )
+    oracle_goodput = float(oracle_anchor["real_goodput_req_s_per_gpu"])
+    common_failure = float(prior["gpu_hours_total"])
+    by_k = {}
+    for k in (1, 2, 3, 6):
+        shortlist = expanded_top_k(candidates, k)
+        full = replay(
+            shortlist,
+            probability_key=None,
+            oracle_goodput=oracle_goodput,
+            common_failure_h20_hours=common_failure,
+        )
+        baseline = replay(
+            shortlist,
+            probability_key="baseline_probability",
+            oracle_goodput=oracle_goodput,
+            common_failure_h20_hours=common_failure,
+        )
+        instrument = replay(
+            shortlist,
+            probability_key="instrument_probability",
+            oracle_goodput=oracle_goodput,
+            common_failure_h20_hours=common_failure,
+        )
+        for result in (baseline, instrument):
+            result["online_cost_reduction_vs_full"] = (
+                1.0 - result["online_h20_hours"] / full["online_h20_hours"]
+            )
+            result["conservative_cost_reduction_vs_full"] = 1.0 - (
+                result["conservative_h20_hours_with_prior_failure"]
+                / full["conservative_h20_hours_with_prior_failure"]
+            )
+        by_k[str(k)] = {
+            "actual_shortlist_size": len(shortlist),
+            "shortlist": [candidate["cell"] for candidate in shortlist],
+            "sim_top_k_plus_real_final": full,
+            "sim_plus_outcome": baseline,
+            "sim_plus_outcome_plus_instrumentation": instrument,
+        }
+
+    frozen = by_k[str(FROZEN_K)]
+    full = frozen["sim_top_k_plus_real_final"]
+    baseline = frozen["sim_plus_outcome"]
+    instrument = frozen["sim_plus_outcome_plus_instrumentation"]
+    baseline_safe = baseline["false_accept"] == 0 and baseline["false_reject"] == 0
+    instrument_safe = (
+        instrument["false_accept"] == 0 and instrument["false_reject"] == 0
+    )
+    incremental_reduction = (
+        1.0 - instrument["online_h20_hours"] / baseline["online_h20_hours"]
+        if baseline_safe and instrument_safe and baseline["online_h20_hours"] > 0
+        else None
+    )
+    contribution_gate = {
+        "frozen_k": FROZEN_K,
+        "instrument_safe": instrument_safe,
+        "outcome_baseline_safe": baseline_safe,
+        "instrument_regret_at_most_5pct": (
+            instrument["real_regret"] is not None
+            and instrument["real_regret"] <= 0.05
+        ),
+        "instrument_cost_reduction_vs_full_at_least_30pct": (
+            instrument["online_cost_reduction_vs_full"] >= 0.30
+        ),
+        "instrument_cost_reduction_vs_outcome_at_least_20pct": (
+            incremental_reduction is not None and incremental_reduction >= 0.20
+        ),
+        "incremental_reduction_vs_outcome": incremental_reduction,
+    }
+    contribution_gate["passes"] = all(
+        contribution_gate[key]
+        for key in (
+            "instrument_safe",
+            "outcome_baseline_safe",
+            "instrument_regret_at_most_5pct",
+            "instrument_cost_reduction_vs_full_at_least_30pct",
+            "instrument_cost_reduction_vs_outcome_at_least_20pct",
+        )
+    )
+
+    red_flags = []
+    if state["status"] != "complete" or int(state["completed_cells"]) != 6:
+        red_flags.append("pilot_incomplete")
+    if strong["status"] != "PASS" or strong["sanity"]["red_flags"]:
+        red_flags.append("strong_input_invalid")
+    if len(anchors) != 12 or len(candidates) != 6:
+        red_flags.append("unexpected_surface_size")
+    probabilities = [
+        value
+        for anchor in anchors
+        for value in (anchor["baseline_probability"], anchor["instrument_probability"])
+    ]
+    costs = [
+        value
+        for anchor in anchors
+        for value in (
+            anchor["setup_h20_hours"],
+            anchor["full_trial_h20_hours"],
+            anchor["prefix_h20_hours"],
+        )
+    ]
+    if not all(0.0 <= value <= 1.0 for value in probabilities):
+        red_flags.append("probability_out_of_range")
+    if not all(value >= 0.0 and math.isfinite(value) for value in costs):
+        red_flags.append("invalid_cost")
+
+    return {
+        "schema": "fidelity-pilot-e2e-v1",
+        "status": "PASS" if not red_flags else "STOP",
+        "scope": "held-out P1 replay; gate diagnostic, not paper-facing evidence",
+        "ranking": [
+            {
+                "rank": rank,
+                "cell": candidate["cell"],
+                "level": candidate["level"],
+                "sim_throughput_req_s_per_gpu": candidate[
+                    "sim_throughput_req_s_per_gpu"
+                ],
+                "real_feasible": candidate["real_feasible"],
+                "real_goodput_req_s_per_gpu": candidate[
+                    "real_goodput_req_s_per_gpu"
+                ],
+            }
+            for rank, candidate in enumerate(candidates, start=1)
+        ],
+        "real_oracle": {
+            "cell": oracle_anchor["cell"],
+            "level": oracle_anchor["level"],
+            "goodput_req_s_per_gpu": oracle_goodput,
+        },
+        "by_k": by_k,
+        "contribution_gate": contribution_gate,
+        "analysis": {
+            "script": str(Path(__file__).resolve()),
+            "script_sha256": sha256_file(Path(__file__).resolve()),
+            "aituner_git_head": git_capture("rev-parse", "HEAD").strip(),
+            "aituner_git_status_short": git_capture("status", "--short"),
+        },
+        "provenance": {
+            "manifest": str(manifest_path.resolve()),
+            "manifest_sha256": sha256_file(manifest_path),
+            "controller_state": str(state_path.resolve()),
+            "controller_state_sha256": sha256_file(state_path),
+            "prior_state": str(prior_state_path.resolve()),
+            "prior_state_sha256": sha256_file(prior_state_path),
+            "strong_metrics": str(strong_path.resolve()),
+            "strong_metrics_sha256": sha256_file(strong_path),
+        },
+        "sanity": {
+            "red_flags": red_flags,
+            "anchors": numeric([1 for _ in anchors]),
+            "candidates": numeric([1 for _ in candidates]),
+            "probabilities": numeric(probabilities),
+            "costs_h20_hours": numeric(costs),
+            "invariants": {
+                "anchors_12": len(anchors) == 12,
+                "candidates_6": len(candidates) == 6,
+                "probabilities_bounded": all(
+                    0.0 <= value <= 1.0 for value in probabilities
+                ),
+                "costs_nonnegative": all(value >= 0.0 for value in costs),
+                "per_config_not_all_identical": len(
+                    {candidate["sim_throughput_req_s_per_gpu"] for candidate in candidates}
+                )
+                > 1,
+                "tie_expansion_applied": True,
+            },
+        },
+    }
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    parser.add_argument("--manifest", type=Path, required=True)
+    parser.add_argument("--controller-state", type=Path, required=True)
+    parser.add_argument("--prior-state", type=Path, required=True)
+    parser.add_argument("--strong-metrics", type=Path, required=True)
+    parser.add_argument("--output", type=Path, required=True)
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+    result = analyze(
+        args.manifest,
+        args.controller_state,
+        args.prior_state,
+        args.strong_metrics,
+    )
+    args.output.write_text(json.dumps(result, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n")
+    print(
+        json.dumps(
+            {
+                "status": result["status"],
+                "red_flags": result["sanity"]["red_flags"],
+                "contribution_gate": result["contribution_gate"],
+            },
+            sort_keys=True,
+        )
+    )
+    if result["status"] != "PASS":
+        raise RuntimeError(result["sanity"]["red_flags"])
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
diff --git a/runs/fidelity-headroom/test_pilot_e2e.py b/runs/fidelity-headroom/test_pilot_e2e.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e837b42
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/fidelity-headroom/test_pilot_e2e.py
@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from analyze_pilot_e2e import expanded_top_k, replay
+
+
+def candidate(
+    cell: str,
+    sim_score: float,
+    real_feasible: bool,
+    probability: float,
+) -> dict[str, object]:
+    return {
+        "cell": cell,
+        "level": "high",
+        "sim_throughput_req_s_per_gpu": sim_score,
+        "real_goodput_req_s_per_gpu": sim_score,
+        "real_feasible": real_feasible,
+        "setup_h20_hours": 0.1,
+        "full_trial_h20_hours": 0.05,
+        "prefix_h20_hours": 0.01,
+        "instrument_probability": probability,
+    }
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    candidates = [
+        candidate("a", 3.0, True, 0.5),
+        candidate("b", 2.0, False, 0.01),
+        candidate("c", 2.0, True, 0.99),
+    ]
+    shortlist = expanded_top_k(candidates, 2)
+    assert [item["cell"] for item in shortlist] == ["a", "b", "c"]
+    result = replay(
+        shortlist,
+        probability_key="instrument_probability",
+        oracle_goodput=3.0,
+        common_failure_h20_hours=0.02,
+    )
+    assert result["selected_cell"] == "a"
+    assert result["false_accept"] == 0
+    assert result["false_reject"] == 0
+    assert result["early_accept"] == 1
+    assert result["early_reject"] == 1
+    assert result["online_h20_hours"] > 0
+    print("fidelity pilot e2e: PASS")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()