From 26c2cdab2b7e4685fcaeffc3fe46e54430e83f02 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Gahow Wang Date: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 19:18:57 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] Record phase-aware telemetry pilot result --- ...tervention-response-v3-results-20260714.md | 160 + ...failed-three-load-controller-state-v2.json | 49 + .../pilot-audit-v3.json | 16451 ++++++++++++++++ .../pilot-controller-state-v3.json | 342 + .../pilot-manifest-v3.json | 324 + .../intervention-response-v2/platform-v3.json | 46 + 6 files changed, 17372 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/intervention-response-v3-results-20260714.md create mode 100644 runs/intervention-response-v2/failed-three-load-controller-state-v2.json create mode 100644 runs/intervention-response-v2/pilot-audit-v3.json create mode 100644 runs/intervention-response-v2/pilot-controller-state-v3.json create mode 100644 runs/intervention-response-v2/pilot-manifest-v3.json create mode 100644 runs/intervention-response-v2/platform-v3.json diff --git a/docs/intervention-response-v3-results-20260714.md b/docs/intervention-response-v3-results-20260714.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..75ac723 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/intervention-response-v3-results-20260714.md @@ -0,0 +1,160 @@ +# Phase-aware telemetry intervention-response v3 results + +Date: 2026-07-14 (Asia/Singapore). + +Decision: **`STOP_NO_INCREMENTAL_TUNING_SIGNAL`**. + +## Claim tested + +After the replay has developed queue, batch, and KV state, does increasing MNS +from 16 to 64 create telemetry responses that exceed workload-repeat noise, and +does any such response identify whether the action repairs the full-run SLO +better than external prefix outcomes alone? + +The first clause passed. The second clause failed. Long-window telemetry is +mechanistically informative, but this pilot does not support its necessity for +tuning this action. + +## Setup + +- dash0 GPU 0-3: four NVIDIA H20 GPUs; Qwen3-30B-A3B; patched vLLM + `0.24.1.dev3+opprof`; TP=4. +- Action: MNS `16 -> 64` with exact request, arrival, and input-length hashes. +- Trace: `chat_w20260312_1000`, replay-time scale 0.5, 300 seconds. +- Loads: 1.5 and 2.125 requests/s/GPU; three disjoint bands; endpoint order + A/B, B/A, A/B; load order low/mid, mid/low, low/mid. +- Five cumulative checkpoints: 30, 75, 150, 225, and 300 seconds; four + non-overlapping quarter blocks. +- Six fresh-server sessions, 12 measured runs, six action pairs, and eight + same-config repeat pairs. + +The prior three-load attempt is not part of the result. Its MNS=16 workload at +3.125 requests/s/GPU could not drain by the 450-second client timeout and +produced no high-load result. V3 reran every retained point from scratch. + +## End-to-end outcome + +All three low-load pairs remained feasible (`true->true`, label 0). All three +pressure-load pairs changed from infeasible to feasible (`false->true`, label +1). MNS=16 pressure pass rates were 0.5604, 0.3145, and 0.2635; all three +MNS=64 pressure runs reached 1.0. This yielded a balanced 3/3 action label set. + +## Mechanism result + +No telemetry feature passed the action-versus-repeat gate at 10% or 25%. At +50%, graph padding first passed. At both 75% and 100%, graph padding and queue +waiting passed, satisfying the requirement for two features at the same pair +of adjacent checkpoints and with consistent directions in both load regimes. + +| Feature | Direction for MNS 16->64 | 75% effect/repeat median | 75% above repeat p95 | 100% effect/repeat median | 100% above repeat p95 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| `queue_waiting_mean` | lower | 1346.22 | 3/6 | 898.70 | 3/6 | +| `graph_padding_fraction` | higher | 5.00 | 4/6 | 5.74 | 5/6 | + +The very large queue effect/median-repeat ratios should not be read alone: its +repeat p95 was much larger than its repeat median, so the independent p95 +coverage criterion remained binding. Full-window queue-waiting deltas were +-0.19 to -0.32 at low load and -20.99 to -32.16 at pressure load. Graph +padding increased in every pair, by 0.00133-0.00217 at low load and +0.00705-0.00873 at pressure load. + +The mechanism is therefore a real tradeoff: larger MNS reduces queueing, +especially under pressure, while increasing CUDA-graph padding. + +## Tuning-signal result + +Leave-one-repetition-out balanced accuracy was evaluated against the best +external prefix-outcome feature at every predeclared checkpoint. + +| Replay phase | Best external BA | Best telemetry BA | Incremental telemetry gate | +|---:|---:|---:|---| +| 10% | 0.833 | 0.833 | fail | +| 25% | 1.000 | 1.000 | fail | +| 50% | 0.833 | 1.000 | pass at this checkpoint only | +| 75% | 1.000 | 1.000 | fail | +| 100% | 1.000 | 1.000 | fail | + +At 50%, several telemetry features exceeded the external baseline by at least +0.15, including the phase-stable mechanism feature +`graph_padding_fraction`. The advantage did not hold at either adjacent +checkpoint. Consequently no feature passed the frozen two-adjacent-phase +requirement. + +The important ordering is that external TTFT already classified the action +perfectly at 25%, whereas the robust two-feature mechanism response did not +emerge until 75%-100%. In this setup telemetry explains *why* MNS helps, but it +does not provide earlier or more reliable action selection than direct prefix +outcomes. + +## Research conclusion + +The 5/10-second negative result was indeed too narrow. It only ruled out an +ultra-early telemetry verifier; it did not rule out engine-state information. +The 300-second pilot finds a clear and reproducible queueing-versus-padding +response. + +However, this does not rescue the direct telemetry-guided tuning claim. For +this action and workload, the external signal is already as good or better +before the telemetry mechanism becomes stable. The project should therefore +not claim that engine instrumentation is necessary for tuning on this evidence, +and should not open an E2E policy test from this pilot. + +The narrower simulator-residual route remains logically open: telemetry may +explain why a simulator misranks real configurations even when direct online +outcomes can guide a tuner. That is a different hypothesis and was not tested +here. + +## Change and verification + +Change: absolute 5/10-second prefixes were replaced by phase-aware 30/75/150/ +225/300-second analysis; SLO early stop was disabled; full Layer-1 coverage, +hash, request-accounting, controller, and stream/footer gates were added. The +mechanism gate was corrected to require two features at the same adjacent +phase pair. + +Expected effect: distinguish “telemetry has not developed yet” from “telemetry +does not identify or improve the action decision.” + +Verification: five local analysis/controller test suites passed; remote +manifest preflight and command dry-run passed; six serialized sessions passed +all stream invariants; the analyzer was rerun and produced byte-identical +output. + +Result: mechanism evidence passed; incremental tuning evidence failed. Audit +SHA256: `45f6f248712f9cbd3ed72036837ff6dc5b5c14c0f2eb6ba5cd5daceb1aa4ddb7`. + +Remaining risk: this is a development pilot with one model, one TP, one action, +two retained loads, three request bands, and six action labels. It is adequate +to reject opening the next direct-policy stage, not to establish a universal +negative claim about telemetry. + +## Research-validity audit + +| Check | Verdict | Evidence / boundary | +|---|---|---| +| Real system and E2E outcome | PASS | Real H20/vLLM replay; full SLO outcome accompanies mechanism telemetry. | +| Matched action baseline | PASS | Exact request/arrival/length hashes for MNS 16 and 64; external prefix outcome is the decision baseline. | +| Repeats and order effects | PASS for pilot | Three disjoint bands; A/B, B/A, A/B endpoint order; counter-rotated load order. | +| Selective load removal | PASS with narrowed claim | The 3.125 load produced no result before any action comparison; the failure and cost are retained, and all kept points were freshly rerun. | +| Significance/generalization | NEEDS EVIDENCE for a paper claim | Only three bands, one model, one TP, one action, and six labels. This is explicitly a stage gate. | +| Calibration versus evaluation | NEEDS EVIDENCE for a positive policy claim | Frozen gates and leave-one-band-out folds reduce leakage, but a new workload/model hold-out is still required. | +| Platform/reproducibility | PASS | Commit, commands, manifest, controller state, platform fingerprint, raw remote paths, and audit hashes are recorded. | + +## Data sanity + +- Measured runs: n=12; elapsed 300.346-317.012 seconds; 12 distinct; pass rate + 0.2635-1.0 with 4 distinct values; selected requests 1800-2550 with 2 + distinct values. +- Sessions: n=6; 0.8413-0.8631 H20-hours; 6 distinct; Layer-1 records + 58,465-64,776; 6 distinct. V3 cost was 5.0924 H20-hours; total including + the invalid attempt was 6.4505, below the 8.0 cap. +- Labels: n=6; min/max 0/1; 2 distinct. Action pairs were 6 and repeat pairs + were 8 at every checkpoint. +- Coverage-gap observations: n=60; start gaps 0.0427-0.1247 seconds; end gaps + 0.00014-0.1705; maximum internal gaps 0.1695-0.6528, all below one second. +- Checked invariants: exact pair hashes and counts, all runs uncensored, full + request accounting, monotonic admitted/completed coverage, monotonic Layer-1 + timestamps, nonnegative counters, bounded ratios, non-identical per-config + states, contiguous step indices, zero drops, footer/sidecar agreement, no + controller failures, all sessions complete, GPU idle after completion. 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