diff --git a/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/analyze_qwen30_latency_case.py b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/analyze_qwen30_latency_case.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..2b7e734
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/analyze_qwen30_latency_case.py
@@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Compare one complete Qwen30 Frontier latency surface with real vLLM."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import math
+from itertools import combinations
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Any
+
+
+CONFIGS = tuple(f"tp{tp}_mns{mns}" for tp in (1, 2, 4) for mns in (8, 16, 32, 64))
+
+
+def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    parser.add_argument("--sim-root", type=Path, required=True)
+    parser.add_argument("--real-audit", type=Path, required=True)
+    parser.add_argument("--json-output", type=Path, required=True)
+    parser.add_argument("--markdown-output", type=Path, required=True)
+    return parser.parse_args()
+
+
+def number(value: Any, field: str) -> float:
+    if not isinstance(value, (int, float)) or isinstance(value, bool):
+        raise ValueError(f"{field} is not numeric: {value!r}")
+    result = float(value)
+    if not math.isfinite(result) or result < 0:
+        raise ValueError(f"{field} is invalid: {value!r}")
+    return result
+
+
+def parse_config(name: str) -> tuple[int, int]:
+    tp, mns = name.split("_", 1)
+    return int(tp.removeprefix("tp")), int(mns.removeprefix("mns"))
+
+
+def rank(values: dict[str, float]) -> list[str]:
+    return [name for name, _ in sorted(values.items(), key=lambda item: (item[1], item[0]))]
+
+
+def pairwise(sim: dict[str, float], real: dict[str, float]) -> dict[str, int | float | None]:
+    concordant = discordant = ties = 0
+    for left, right in combinations(CONFIGS, 2):
+        sim_delta = sim[left] - sim[right]
+        real_delta = real[left] - real[right]
+        if math.isclose(sim_delta, 0.0, abs_tol=1e-9) or math.isclose(real_delta, 0.0, abs_tol=1e-9):
+            ties += 1
+        elif (sim_delta > 0) == (real_delta > 0):
+            concordant += 1
+        else:
+            discordant += 1
+    informative = concordant + discordant
+    return {
+        "concordant_pairs": concordant,
+        "discordant_pairs": discordant,
+        "tied_pairs": ties,
+        "informative_pairs": informative,
+        "agreement": concordant / informative if informative else None,
+    }
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    args = parse_args()
+    root = args.sim_root.resolve()
+    audit = json.loads(args.real_audit.read_text())
+    metrics = tuple(audit.get("applicable_metrics") or [])
+    if not metrics or set(audit.get("configs") or {}) != set(CONFIGS):
+        raise ValueError("real audit is incomplete")
+    expected_requests = int(audit["trace_manifests"]["tp1"]["requests"])
+    cells: dict[str, Any] = {}
+    for name in CONFIGS:
+        tp, mns = parse_config(name)
+        path = root / "runs" / name / f"tp{tp}" / "result.json"
+        result = json.loads(path.read_text())
+        if result.get("status") != "completed" or result.get("request_count") != expected_requests:
+            raise ValueError(f"incomplete simulator result: {path}")
+        if result.get("config") != {"tp": tp, "mns": mns, "name": name}:
+            raise ValueError(f"simulator config drift: {path}")
+        score = result.get("score")
+        if not isinstance(score, dict):
+            raise ValueError(f"simulator score missing: {path}")
+        values: dict[str, Any] = {}
+        for metric in metrics:
+            prefix = metric.removesuffix("_ms")
+            values[metric] = {
+                statistic: number(score.get(f"{prefix}_{statistic}_ms"), f"{path}:{metric}:{statistic}")
+                for statistic in ("mean", "p90")
+            }
+        cells[name] = {"path": str(path), "metrics": values}
+    selection: dict[str, Any] = {}
+    for metric in metrics:
+        for statistic in ("mean", "p90"):
+            sim_values = {name: cells[name]["metrics"][metric][statistic] for name in CONFIGS}
+            real_values = {
+                name: number(
+                    audit["configs"][name]["metrics"][metric][f"pooled_{statistic}_ms"],
+                    f"real:{name}:{metric}:{statistic}",
+                )
+                for name in CONFIGS
+            }
+            sim_ranking, real_ranking = rank(sim_values), rank(real_values)
+            sim_choice, real_best = sim_ranking[0], real_ranking[0]
+            selection[f"{metric}:{statistic}"] = {
+                "sim_winner": sim_choice,
+                "real_winner": real_best,
+                "winner_match": sim_choice == real_best,
+                "selected_config_real_regret": (real_values[sim_choice] - real_values[real_best]) / real_values[real_best],
+                "sim_ranking": sim_ranking,
+                "real_ranking": real_ranking,
+                **pairwise(sim_values, real_values),
+            }
+    payload = {
+        "schema": "qwen30-latency-case-frontier-real-comparison-v1",
+        "sim_root": str(root),
+        "real_audit": str(args.real_audit.resolve()),
+        "prefill_only": bool(audit["prefill_only"]),
+        "applicable_metrics": metrics,
+        "selection": selection,
+        "cells": cells,
+    }
+    lines = ["# Qwen30 Frontier vs real latency selection", "", "| Objective | Frontier | Real | Match | Regret | Pairwise |", "|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|"]
+    for objective, row in selection.items():
+        agreement = "N/A" if row["agreement"] is None else f"{row['agreement']:.1%}"
+        lines.append(f"| {objective} | {row['sim_winner']} | {row['real_winner']} | {'yes' if row['winner_match'] else 'no'} | {row['selected_config_real_regret']:.1%} | {agreement} |")
+    args.json_output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    args.markdown_output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    args.json_output.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n")
+    args.markdown_output.write_text("\n".join(lines) + "\n")
+    print(json.dumps(selection, sort_keys=True))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
diff --git a/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/audit_qwen30_latency_case.py b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/audit_qwen30_latency_case.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ed06274
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/audit_qwen30_latency_case.py
@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Audit one completed Qwen30 latency-selection real surface.
+
+This reader intentionally treats a prefill-only case as a four-objective
+surface: TTFT/E2E mean and p90.  TPOT is omitted rather than coerced to zero.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import math
+import statistics
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Any
+
+
+CONFIGS = tuple(f"tp{tp}_mns{mns}" for tp in (1, 2, 4) for mns in (8, 16, 32, 64))
+TRIALS = (1, 2, 3)
+
+
+def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    parser.add_argument("--case-root", type=Path, required=True)
+    parser.add_argument("--json-output", type=Path, required=True)
+    parser.add_argument("--markdown-output", type=Path, required=True)
+    return parser.parse_args()
+
+
+def nearest_rank(values: list[float], fraction: float) -> float:
+    if not values:
+        raise ValueError("cannot calculate a percentile of an empty metric")
+    return sorted(values)[math.ceil(len(values) * fraction) - 1]
+
+
+def finite(value: Any, field: str) -> float:
+    if not isinstance(value, (int, float)) or isinstance(value, bool):
+        raise ValueError(f"{field} is not numeric: {value!r}")
+    value = float(value)
+    if not math.isfinite(value) or value < 0:
+        raise ValueError(f"{field} is invalid: {value!r}")
+    return value
+
+
+def read_manifest(root: Path, tp: int) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    path = root / "traces" / f"tp{tp}" / "public" / "manifest.json"
+    manifest = json.loads(path.read_text())
+    if manifest.get("schema") != "qwen30-latency-case-v1":
+        raise ValueError(f"unexpected trace schema in {path}")
+    if manifest.get("tensor_parallel_size") != tp or int(manifest.get("requests", 0)) <= 0:
+        raise ValueError(f"invalid trace contract in {path}")
+    outputs = manifest.get("output_tokens")
+    if not isinstance(outputs, list) or len(outputs) != 1 or int(outputs[0]) <= 0:
+        raise ValueError(f"non-uniform output contract in {path}")
+    return manifest
+
+
+def metric_stats(values: list[float]) -> dict[str, float]:
+    return {"samples": len(values), "mean_ms": statistics.fmean(values), "p90_ms": nearest_rank(values, 0.90)}
+
+
+def validate_trial(path: Path, manifest: dict[str, Any]) -> tuple[dict[str, list[float]], dict[str, Any]]:
+    payload = json.loads(path.read_text())
+    if payload.get("schema") != "qwen30-exact-trace-anchor-v1":
+        raise ValueError(f"unexpected real result schema in {path}")
+    contract = payload.get("contract")
+    summary = payload.get("summary")
+    records = payload.get("requests")
+    if not isinstance(contract, dict) or not isinstance(summary, dict) or not isinstance(records, list):
+        raise ValueError(f"malformed result payload: {path}")
+    expected = int(manifest["requests"])
+    expected_contract = {
+        "requests": expected,
+        "requests_file_sha256": manifest["private_jsonl_sha256"],
+        "row_vector_sha256": manifest["row_vector_sha256"],
+        "first_arrival_s": manifest["first_arrival_s"],
+        "last_arrival_s": manifest["last_arrival_s"],
+    }
+    for name, wanted in expected_contract.items():
+        actual = contract.get(name)
+        if isinstance(wanted, float):
+            if not isinstance(actual, (int, float)) or not math.isclose(float(actual), wanted, abs_tol=1e-9):
+                raise ValueError(f"{path}: contract drift for {name}")
+        elif actual != wanted:
+            raise ValueError(f"{path}: contract drift for {name}")
+    if len(records) != expected or summary.get("completed") != expected or summary.get("failed") != 0:
+        raise ValueError(f"{path}: incomplete real replay")
+
+    metrics: dict[str, list[float]] = {"ttft_ms": [], "tpot_ms": [], "e2e_ms": []}
+    indices: set[int] = set()
+    expected_output = int(manifest["output_tokens"][0])
+    for record in records:
+        if record.get("success") is not True:
+            raise ValueError(f"{path}: failed request record")
+        index = record.get("source_index")
+        if not isinstance(index, int) or index in indices:
+            raise ValueError(f"{path}: duplicate/non-integer source index")
+        indices.add(index)
+        if record.get("actual_input_tokens") != record.get("input_tokens"):
+            raise ValueError(f"{path}: input usage drift")
+        if record.get("requested_output_tokens") != expected_output or record.get("actual_output_tokens") != expected_output:
+            raise ValueError(f"{path}: output usage drift")
+        for metric in ("ttft_ms", "e2e_ms"):
+            metrics[metric].append(finite(record.get(metric), metric))
+        tpot = record.get("tpot_ms")
+        if expected_output == 1:
+            if tpot is not None:
+                raise ValueError(f"{path}: OSL=1 must report TPOT=null")
+        else:
+            metrics["tpot_ms"].append(finite(tpot, "tpot_ms"))
+    if len(indices) != expected:
+        raise ValueError(f"{path}: missing source rows")
+    return metrics, {"result_path": str(path), "requests": expected}
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    args = parse_args()
+    root = args.case_root.resolve()
+    manifests = {tp: read_manifest(root, tp) for tp in (1, 2, 4)}
+    prefill_only = int(manifests[1]["output_tokens"][0]) == 1
+    if any((int(manifest["output_tokens"][0]) == 1) != prefill_only for manifest in manifests.values()):
+        raise ValueError("TP-specific output contracts differ")
+    applicable = ("ttft_ms", "e2e_ms") if prefill_only else ("ttft_ms", "tpot_ms", "e2e_ms")
+    configs: dict[str, Any] = {}
+    for name in CONFIGS:
+        tp = int(name.split("_", 1)[0].removeprefix("tp"))
+        trial_rows = []
+        pooled = {metric: [] for metric in applicable}
+        for trial in TRIALS:
+            path = root / "real" / name / f"trial{trial}" / "results" / "result.json"
+            values, provenance = validate_trial(path, manifests[tp])
+            trial_rows.append({
+                **provenance,
+                "trial": trial,
+                "metrics": {metric: metric_stats(values[metric]) for metric in applicable},
+            })
+            for metric in applicable:
+                pooled[metric].extend(values[metric])
+        configs[name] = {
+            "trials": trial_rows,
+            "metrics": {
+                metric: {
+                    "pooled_samples": len(pooled[metric]),
+                    "pooled_mean_ms": statistics.fmean(pooled[metric]),
+                    "pooled_p90_ms": nearest_rank(pooled[metric], 0.90),
+                    "trial_mean_of_means_ms": statistics.fmean(
+                        row["metrics"][metric]["mean_ms"] for row in trial_rows
+                    ),
+                    "trial_stddev_of_means_ms": statistics.stdev(
+                        row["metrics"][metric]["mean_ms"] for row in trial_rows
+                    ),
+                }
+                for metric in applicable
+            },
+        }
+    winners: dict[str, Any] = {}
+    for metric in applicable:
+        for statistic in ("pooled_mean_ms", "pooled_p90_ms"):
+            ranked = sorted((row["metrics"][metric][statistic], name) for name, row in configs.items())
+            winners[f"{metric}:{statistic}"] = {
+                "winner": ranked[0][1],
+                "winner_value_ms": ranked[0][0],
+                "ranking": [name for _, name in ranked],
+            }
+    payload = {
+        "schema": "qwen30-latency-case-real-audit-v1",
+        "case_root": str(root),
+        "prefill_only": prefill_only,
+        "applicable_metrics": list(applicable),
+        "trace_manifests": {f"tp{tp}": manifests[tp] for tp in manifests},
+        "configs": configs,
+        "winners": winners,
+    }
+    lines = ["# Qwen30 real latency case audit", "", f"Prefill-only: `{prefill_only}`.", ""]
+    lines += ["| Objective | Real winner | Value (ms) |", "|---|---|---:|"]
+    for objective, winner in winners.items():
+        lines.append(f"| {objective} | {winner['winner']} | {winner['winner_value_ms']:.2f} |")
+    args.json_output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    args.markdown_output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    args.json_output.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n")
+    args.markdown_output.write_text("\n".join(lines) + "\n")
+    print(json.dumps(winners, sort_keys=True))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
diff --git a/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/prepare_qwen30_latency_case.py b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/prepare_qwen30_latency_case.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e4bfa6a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/prepare_qwen30_latency_case.py
@@ -0,0 +1,245 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Materialize Qwen30 Fixed/Trace latency cases without changing their contract.
+
+The private request file deliberately contains either an exact source prompt
+(trace cases) or deterministic token IDs (fixed cases).  The public Frontier
+fixture contains only arrivals, shapes, sessions, and legal complete prefix
+block identities.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import csv
+import hashlib
+import json
+import math
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Any
+
+
+FIELDS = (
+    "arrived_at",
+    "num_prefill_tokens",
+    "num_decode_tokens",
+    "session_id",
+    "block_hash_ids",
+)
+
+
+def sha256(path: Path) -> str:
+    digest = hashlib.sha256()
+    with path.open("rb") as source:
+        for chunk in iter(lambda: source.read(1 << 20), b""):
+            digest.update(chunk)
+    return digest.hexdigest()
+
+
+def row_digest(rows: list[dict[str, Any]]) -> str:
+    digest = hashlib.sha256()
+    for row in rows:
+        digest.update(
+            json.dumps(
+                [
+                    row["source_index"],
+                    row["arrived_at"],
+                    row["input_length"],
+                    row["output_length"],
+                    row["session_id"],
+                    row["runtime_block_ids"],
+                ],
+                separators=(",", ":"),
+            ).encode()
+        )
+        digest.update(b"\n")
+    return digest.hexdigest()
+
+
+def parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    sub = parser.add_subparsers(dest="kind", required=True)
+
+    trace = sub.add_parser("trace")
+    trace.add_argument("--base-public", type=Path, required=True)
+    trace.add_argument("--base-private", type=Path, required=True)
+    trace.add_argument("--output-tokens", type=int, required=True)
+    trace.add_argument("--tp", type=int, required=True)
+    trace.add_argument("--output-root", type=Path, required=True)
+
+    fixed = sub.add_parser("fixed")
+    fixed.add_argument("--model", type=Path, required=True)
+    fixed.add_argument("--input-tokens", type=int, required=True)
+    fixed.add_argument("--output-tokens", type=int, required=True)
+    fixed.add_argument("--requests", type=int, required=True)
+    fixed.add_argument("--per-gpu-rate", type=float, required=True)
+    fixed.add_argument("--tp", type=int, required=True)
+    fixed.add_argument("--output-root", type=Path, required=True)
+    return parser.parse_args()
+
+
+def materialize_trace(args: argparse.Namespace) -> tuple[list[dict[str, Any]], bool, str, float]:
+    with args.base_public.open(newline="") as source:
+        public = list(csv.DictReader(source))
+    private = [json.loads(line) for line in args.base_private.open() if line.strip()]
+    if not public or len(public) != len(private):
+        raise ValueError("trace public/private request count mismatch")
+    rows: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
+    for public_row, private_row in zip(public, private, strict=True):
+        if int(public_row["num_prefill_tokens"]) != int(private_row["input_length"]):
+            raise ValueError("trace input-length drift")
+        if float(public_row["arrived_at"]) != float(private_row["arrived_at"]):
+            raise ValueError("trace arrival drift")
+        # The real vLLM request artifact retains its final partial prompt block
+        # for provenance, while the Frontier CSV deliberately projects only
+        # legal complete cache blocks.  Use the latter as the shared
+        # simulator-facing identity vector; vLLM itself derives cache hashes
+        # from the exact private prompt text.
+        runtime_ids = [int(value) for value in public_row["block_hash_ids"].split("|") if value]
+        if len(runtime_ids) != int(private_row["input_length"]) // 16:
+            raise ValueError("public trace exposes an incomplete runtime prefix block")
+        if int(public_row["session_id"]) != int(private_row["session_id"]):
+            raise ValueError("trace session-id drift")
+        body = dict(private_row["body"])
+        body.update(
+            {
+                "min_tokens": args.output_tokens,
+                "max_tokens": args.output_tokens,
+                "ignore_eos": True,
+            }
+        )
+        rows.append(
+            {
+                "source_index": int(private_row["source_index"]),
+                "arrived_at": float(private_row["arrived_at"]),
+                "input_length": int(private_row["input_length"]),
+                "output_length": args.output_tokens,
+                "session_id": int(private_row["session_id"]),
+                "runtime_block_ids": runtime_ids,
+                "body": body,
+            }
+        )
+    return (
+        rows,
+        True,
+        "trace-derived: exact input/arrival/session/prefix; output override only",
+        len(rows) / 600.0 * args.tp,
+    )
+
+
+def materialize_fixed(args: argparse.Namespace) -> tuple[list[dict[str, Any]], bool, str, float]:
+    if min(args.input_tokens, args.output_tokens, args.requests, args.tp) <= 0:
+        raise ValueError("fixed dimensions must be positive")
+    if args.input_tokens + args.output_tokens > 40960:
+        raise ValueError("fixed shape exceeds max model length")
+    if not math.isfinite(args.per_gpu_rate) or args.per_gpu_rate <= 0:
+        raise ValueError("per-GPU rate must be positive")
+    from transformers import AutoTokenizer
+
+    tokenizer = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(args.model, trust_remote_code=True)
+    candidates = [
+        token for token in range(tokenizer.vocab_size) if token not in set(tokenizer.all_special_ids)
+    ]
+    if len(candidates) < args.requests + 1:
+        raise ValueError("tokenizer does not provide enough non-special tokens")
+    rate = args.per_gpu_rate * args.tp
+    base = candidates[0]
+    rows = []
+    for index in range(args.requests):
+        rows.append(
+            {
+                "source_index": index,
+                "arrived_at": index / rate,
+                "input_length": args.input_tokens,
+                "output_length": args.output_tokens,
+                "session_id": index,
+                "runtime_block_ids": [],
+                "body": {
+                    "prompt": [candidates[index + 1], *([base] * (args.input_tokens - 1))],
+                    "min_tokens": args.output_tokens,
+                    "max_tokens": args.output_tokens,
+                    "ignore_eos": True,
+                },
+            }
+        )
+    return (
+        rows,
+        False,
+        "fixed-shape: deterministic token IDs, uniform TP-normalized QPS, no prefix reuse",
+        rate,
+    )
+
+
+def write_case(
+    rows: list[dict[str, Any]],
+    *,
+    prefix_caching: bool,
+    description: str,
+    global_rate: float,
+    tp: int,
+    root: Path,
+) -> None:
+    if not rows:
+        raise ValueError("empty case")
+    root = root.resolve()
+    public_root = root / "public"
+    private_root = root / "private"
+    public_root.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    private_root.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    public_path = public_root / "frontier.csv"
+    private_path = private_root / "real_requests.jsonl"
+    with public_path.open("w", newline="") as output:
+        writer = csv.DictWriter(output, fieldnames=FIELDS, lineterminator="\n")
+        writer.writeheader()
+        for row in rows:
+            writer.writerow(
+                {
+                    "arrived_at": f"{row['arrived_at']:.12f}",
+                    "num_prefill_tokens": row["input_length"],
+                    "num_decode_tokens": row["output_length"],
+                    "session_id": row["session_id"],
+                    "block_hash_ids": "|".join(str(value) for value in row["runtime_block_ids"]),
+                }
+            )
+    with private_path.open("w") as output:
+        for row in rows:
+            output.write(json.dumps(row, separators=(",", ":")) + "\n")
+    arrivals = [float(row["arrived_at"]) for row in rows]
+    manifest = {
+        "schema": "qwen30-latency-case-v1",
+        "description": description,
+        "tensor_parallel_size": tp,
+        "requests": len(rows),
+        "output_tokens": sorted({int(row["output_length"]) for row in rows}),
+        "prefix_caching": prefix_caching,
+        "public_csv": str(public_path),
+        "public_csv_sha256": sha256(public_path),
+        "private_jsonl": str(private_path),
+        "private_jsonl_sha256": sha256(private_path),
+        "row_vector_sha256": row_digest(rows),
+        "first_arrival_s": arrivals[0],
+        "last_arrival_s": arrivals[-1],
+        "global_offered_request_rate": global_rate,
+        "per_gpu_offered_request_rate": global_rate / tp,
+    }
+    (public_root / "manifest.json").write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n")
+    print(json.dumps(manifest, sort_keys=True))
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    args = parse_args()
+    if args.kind == "trace":
+        rows, prefix, description, global_rate = materialize_trace(args)
+    else:
+        rows, prefix, description, global_rate = materialize_fixed(args)
+    write_case(
+        rows,
+        prefix_caching=prefix,
+        description=description,
+        global_rate=global_rate,
+        tp=args.tp,
+        root=args.output_root,
+    )
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
diff --git a/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/qwen30-latency-expansion-card.md b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/qwen30-latency-expansion-card.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..8ed2b8c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/qwen30-latency-expansion-card.md
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+# EXP-SIMFID-Q30-LATENCY-EXPANSION: remaining Fixed/Trace × PD/P cases
+
+> Status: prepared for runtime-alignment preflight (2026-07-18). The already
+> completed Qwen3-30B-A3B Trace-PD surface is excluded from this card.
+
+## Question and fixed boundary
+
+Does the same graph-aligned Frontier configuration that selected the correct
+winner on Trace-PD also select the real vLLM winner when either the arrival/
+prefix state or the decode phase is removed? This is a selection test, not an
+SLO/capacity evaluation.
+
+| Case | Input / output | arrival and cache | Applicable objectives |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Fixed-PD | 2048 / 128 | 129 uniform requests; `t'=t/TP`; prefix cache off | mean/p90 TTFT, TPOT, E2E |
+| Trace-P | exact held-out input, arrival, session and complete block-16 prefix relation / 1 | same TP-normalized 129-row trace; prefix cache on | mean/p90 TTFT, E2E; TPOT=N/A |
+| Fixed-P | 2048 / 1 | 129 uniform requests; `t'=t/TP`; prefix cache off | mean/p90 TTFT, E2E; TPOT=N/A |
+
+All cases use Qwen3-30B-A3B BF16, community vLLM 0.20.0, H20, `TP∈{1,2,4}`
+and `MNS∈{8,16,32,64}`, MBT=8192, chunked prefill, three fresh-server trials
+per cell. The fixed QPS is the Trace-PD base offered rate (`129/600` req/s per
+GPU), hence the global arrival rate is multiplied by TP. It makes throughput
+per GPU comparable without claiming that different TP values see identical
+cluster-level load.
+
+## Simulator and real contracts
+
+- Frontier uses commit `deadc4a…`, `piecewise`, the frozen CUDA-event profile
+  for prefill/mixed batches and KERNEL_ONLY profile for captured pure decode.
+- Trace-P reuses the already verified graph buckets/KV capacities because the
+  server CLI is unchanged from Trace-PD. The only workload change is `OSL→1`.
+- Fixed-P/PD disables vLLM prefix caching on both sides. Before freezing their
+  simulator surfaces, a no-request server-start preflight records the actual
+  graph captures and KV-block capacities for every `(TP,MNS)`; no request
+  latency or winner is used as calibration.
+- Each real result verifies every request's input/output usage and row-vector
+  digest. `OSL=1` produces JSON `null` TPOT samples and is never converted to
+  zero.
+
+## Decision rule and cost
+
+For every applicable objective, compare the complete 12-cell simulator and
+pooled three-trial real surface: winner match, selected-config real regret,
+and non-tied pair direction agreement. A simulator crash or missing request
+metric is a coverage failure, not a high-latency cell.
+
+The no-request Fixed runtime preflight is capped at 2 H20-GPUh. Each 36-run
+real surface is estimated at 13 nominal / 41 worst-case H20-GPUh, plus CPU-only
+Frontier replay. Launch logs record the resolved inputs, paths, and duration.
diff --git a/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/run_frontier_qwen30_exact_trace_surface.py b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/run_frontier_qwen30_exact_trace_surface.py
index cac0e74..a2c39a0 100644
--- a/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/run_frontier_qwen30_exact_trace_surface.py
+++ b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/run_frontier_qwen30_exact_trace_surface.py
@@ -279,19 +279,23 @@ def score(path: Path, expected_shapes: list[tuple[int, int]]) -> dict[str, Any]:
     ttfts = [float(row["ttft_ms"]) for row in request_metrics]
     tpots = [float(row["tpot_ms"]) for row in request_metrics if row["tpot_ms"] is not None]
     e2es = [float(row["e2e_ms"]) for row in request_metrics]
+    def summary(values: list[float]) -> dict[str, float | None]:
+        if not values:
+            return {"mean": None, "p50": None, "p90": None, "p95": None}
+        return {
+            "mean": sum(values) / len(values),
+            "p50": percentile(values, 0.50),
+            "p90": percentile(values, 0.90),
+            "p95": percentile(values, 0.95),
+        }
+
+    ttft_summary = summary(ttfts)
+    tpot_summary = summary(tpots)
+    e2e_summary = summary(e2es)
     return {
-        "ttft_mean_ms": sum(ttfts) / len(ttfts),
-        "ttft_p50_ms": percentile(ttfts, 0.50),
-        "ttft_p90_ms": percentile(ttfts, 0.90),
-        "ttft_p95_ms": percentile(ttfts, 0.95),
-        "tpot_mean_ms": sum(tpots) / len(tpots),
-        "tpot_p50_ms": percentile(tpots, 0.50),
-        "tpot_p90_ms": percentile(tpots, 0.90),
-        "tpot_p95_ms": percentile(tpots, 0.95),
-        "e2e_mean_ms": sum(e2es) / len(e2es),
-        "e2e_p50_ms": percentile(e2es, 0.50),
-        "e2e_p90_ms": percentile(e2es, 0.90),
-        "e2e_p95_ms": percentile(e2es, 0.95),
+        **{f"ttft_{name}_ms": value for name, value in ttft_summary.items()},
+        **{f"tpot_{name}_ms": value for name, value in tpot_summary.items()},
+        **{f"e2e_{name}_ms": value for name, value in e2e_summary.items()},
         "slos": slos,
     }
 
diff --git a/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/run_qwen30_exact_trace_real_anchor.sh b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/run_qwen30_exact_trace_real_anchor.sh
index 1b582e0..1037a54 100755
--- a/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/run_qwen30_exact_trace_real_anchor.sh
+++ b/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/run_qwen30_exact_trace_real_anchor.sh
@@ -8,10 +8,12 @@ TP="${TP:?TP is required}"
 MNS="${MNS:?MNS is required}"
 TRACE_LABEL="${TRACE_LABEL:?TRACE_LABEL is required}"
 SERVER_PORT="${SERVER_PORT:?SERVER_PORT is required}"
+PREFIX_CACHING="${PREFIX_CACHING:-true}"
 VENV_ROOT="${VENV_ROOT:-/tmp/wjh/venvs/vllm-0.20.0-cu129-profiler-v1}"
 MODEL_ROOT="${MODEL_ROOT:-/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/models/Qwen/Qwen3-30B-A3B}"
 FLASHINFER_WORKSPACE_BASE="${FLASHINFER_WORKSPACE_BASE:-/tmp/wjh/flashinfer-workspace-vllm020-profiler-v1}"
 SERVED_MODEL="qwen3-30b-exact-trace"
+EXACT_TRACE_CLIENT="${EXACT_TRACE_CLIENT:-qwen30_exact_trace_client.py}"
 SERVER_PID=""
 
 mkdir -p "${OUTPUT_ROOT}/logs" "${OUTPUT_ROOT}/provenance" "${OUTPUT_ROOT}/results" \
@@ -37,8 +39,21 @@ if [[ "${#GPU_IDS[@]}" -ne "${TP}" ]]; then
   exit 1
 fi
 
+case "${PREFIX_CACHING}" in
+  true)
+    PREFIX_CACHING_FLAG="--enable-prefix-caching"
+    ;;
+  false)
+    PREFIX_CACHING_FLAG="--no-enable-prefix-caching"
+    ;;
+  *)
+    echo "ERROR: PREFIX_CACHING must be true or false, got ${PREFIX_CACHING}" >&2
+    exit 1
+    ;;
+esac
+
 REQUEST_COUNT="$(wc -l < "${REQUESTS_FILE}")"
-echo "QWEN30_EXACT_TRACE_REAL_LAUNCH_ECHO host=$(hostname) gpus=${CUDA_VISIBLE_DEVICES} model=${MODEL_ROOT} runtime=vLLM-0.20.0+cu129 dtype=BF16 config=TP${TP}_MNS${MNS}_MBT8192 trace=${TRACE_LABEL} requests=${REQUEST_COUNT} source=${REQUESTS_FILE} arrivals=original600s input_output_prompt=exact prefix=on block=16 tpot_slo=150ms flashinfer_workspace=${FLASHINFER_WORKSPACE_BASE} output=${OUTPUT_ROOT} expected_wall=12-35m hard_wall=3600s"
+echo "QWEN30_EXACT_TRACE_REAL_LAUNCH_ECHO host=$(hostname) gpus=${CUDA_VISIBLE_DEVICES} model=${MODEL_ROOT} runtime=vLLM-0.20.0+cu129 dtype=BF16 config=TP${TP}_MNS${MNS}_MBT8192 trace=${TRACE_LABEL} requests=${REQUEST_COUNT} source=${REQUESTS_FILE} arrivals=manifest prefix=${PREFIX_CACHING} block=16 metrics=TTFT,TPOT-if-OSL-gt-1,E2E flashinfer_workspace=${FLASHINFER_WORKSPACE_BASE} output=${OUTPUT_ROOT} expected_wall=12-35m hard_wall=3600s"
 date -u +"START_UTC=%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ"
 sha256sum qwen30_exact_trace_client.py run_qwen30_exact_trace_real_anchor.sh \
   ../frontier-phase-factorial-v0/qwen30_prefill_client.py \
@@ -60,7 +75,7 @@ setsid "${VENV_ROOT}/bin/vllm" serve "${MODEL_ROOT}" \
   --host 127.0.0.1 --port "${SERVER_PORT}" --served-model-name "${SERVED_MODEL}" \
   --tensor-parallel-size "${TP}" --gpu-memory-utilization 0.92 \
   --max-model-len 40960 --max-num-batched-tokens 8192 --max-num-seqs "${MNS}" \
-  --enable-prefix-caching --enable-chunked-prefill --no-enable-log-requests \
+  "${PREFIX_CACHING_FLAG}" --enable-chunked-prefill --no-enable-log-requests \
   > "${OUTPUT_ROOT}/logs/server.log" 2>&1 &
 SERVER_PID=$!
 READY=0
@@ -89,7 +104,7 @@ fi
   --model-path "${MODEL_ROOT}" --rate 1 --requests 4 --input-tokens 512 \
   --output-tokens 1 --output "${OUTPUT_ROOT}/results/warmup.json"
 
-"${VENV_ROOT}/bin/python" qwen30_exact_trace_client.py \
+"${VENV_ROOT}/bin/python" "${EXACT_TRACE_CLIENT}" \
   --port "${SERVER_PORT}" --requests-file "${REQUESTS_FILE}" \
   --output "${OUTPUT_ROOT}/results/result.json" --tpot-slo-ms 150 \
   --timeout-seconds 1800