Record graph-aligned Frontier result

runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/graph-piecewise-experiment-card.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # EXP-SIMFID-Q30-GRAPH-PIECEWISE：graph-compatible kernel-only profile 是否修正 Frontier trace replay？
 
-> **状态：** approved and running（2026-07-17）。本卡是已纠正 prefix-trace contract 后的最小判别实验；不复用此前 `decode_cuda_graph_mode=none` 的数值作 fidelity verdict。
+> **状态：** completed（2026-07-17）。本卡是已纠正 prefix-trace contract 后的最小判别实验；不复用此前 `decode_cuda_graph_mode=none` 的数值作 fidelity verdict。
 
 ## Purpose and hypotheses
 
@@ -29,9 +29,39 @@ Frontier source inspection fixes the semantic boundary: `piecewise` emits `PIECE
 - **Validity gates：** every kernel CSV hash matches its manifest; every row says `KERNEL_ONLY`; every TP/capture-bucket/KV-context required by the runner is present; command records `piecewise`, per-cell blocks and capture sizes; each simulator cell completes all 129 requests.
 - **Decision:** G1 is supported only if the graph-aligned TP2/MNS16 TPOT median moves toward real **and** full-surface rank/error evidence improves. A single-cell timing improvement does not establish tuning sufficiency. If G2 holds, update the research claim to “Frontier has not solved tuning under trace-faithful MoE serving after graph-family alignment,” then profile stage/state composition rather than add arbitrary kernel rows.
 
-## Expected figure
+## Result (completed 2026-07-17)
 
-`graph-piecewise-profile-prototype.svg` is deliberately schematic. The final figure uses the same axes and adds real data only after the profile and replay validity gates pass.
+### Validity gates
+
+- The fresh profile family is exclusive `KERNEL_ONLY`: linear=57, attention=456, MoE=57 rows. Attention covers every TP in {1,2,4}, all MNS64 capture buckets, and the eight decode KV contexts; the final manifest records Frontier `deadc4a…`.
+- All three TP traces contain the same 129 ISL/OSL requests and prompt semantic vector. Their offered rates are 0.215/0.430/0.860 req/s for TP=1/2/4, while the per-GPU rate is fixed. Prefix IDs use `floor(ISL/16)`: 36,321 legal complete blocks, not the invalid 36,443 `ceil` projection.
+- All 12 Frontier cells completed 129/129 requests. No result has a Frontier error or scheduler stall. Commands record `piecewise`, the observed capture list, the real KV-block count, frozen CUDA-event prefill/mixed CSVs, and the new kernel-only CSVs.
+
+### Frontier versus real vLLM selection
+
+| Target | Frontier winner | Real winner | Pairwise order agreement |
+|---|---|---|---:|
+| TTFT mean / p90 | TP4/MNS64 / TP4/MNS64 | TP4/MNS64 / TP4/MNS64 | 56/66 (84.8%) / 56/66 (84.8%) |
+| TPOT mean / p90 | TP4/MNS8 / TP4/MNS8 | TP4/MNS8 / TP4/MNS8 | 64/66 (97.0%) / 64/66 (97.0%) |
+| E2E mean / p90 | TP4/MNS64 / TP4/MNS64 | TP4/MNS64 / TP4/MNS64 | 61/66 (92.4%) / 55/66 (83.3%) |
+
+Thus, for this one Qwen3-30B-A3B Trace-PD surface, graph-aligned Frontier selects the same argmin config for all six reported latency objectives. This is evidence for *selection fidelity on this surface*, not a general claim about dense models, fixed-shape traffic, prefill-only traffic, another serving engine, or SLO capacity.
+
+### Absolute latency is still unusable
+
+The same simulator is not calibrated for absolute latency. Across all 12 cells, sim/real ratios are: TTFT mean 8.13--510.88x (median 38.29x), TPOT mean 4.06--5.72x (median 4.86x), and E2E mean 4.66--13.99x (median 8.24x). At the TP2/MNS16 anchor, Frontier reports mean/p90 TTFT=606,885/1,194,098 ms, TPOT=64.42/66.54 ms, E2E=828,082/1,404,520 ms; real vLLM reports 34,443/77,922 ms, 14.10/16.15 ms, and 82,937/137,726 ms, respectively.
+
+The TPOT error is service-time error, not merely queueing: Frontier's `tpot_computation` equals its TPOT at the anchor. The large TTFT/E2E error then amplifies through the simulated queue. The profile rows themselves are measured kernel rows, so the next diagnosis must inspect Frontier's layer/operation composition and batching-state model rather than relabeling or adding arbitrary graph kernels.
+
+### Decision
+
+G1 is only partially supported: `piecewise` plus a true kernel-only decode family improves the prior `none` smoke's 96.37 ms TPOT median to 65.60 ms, but leaves a large absolute gap. G2 is rejected for the *argmin selection* question on this surface because all six winners match. The defensible claim is therefore:
+
+> Frontier has solved config selection for this evaluated MoE trace surface, despite failing absolute latency prediction; it has **not** yet been shown to solve the broader tuning problem.
+
+The next discriminating tests are the remaining planned dense/MoE × fixed-shape/trace-faithful × prefill+decode/prefill-only surfaces. In parallel, diagnose the decode service-time composition error; do not use Frontier's current absolute values for SLO, cost, or capacity claims.
+
+Artifacts: `/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/graph-piecewise-qwen30-20260717/full/frozen-kernel-only/manifest.json` and `/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/graph-piecewise-qwen30-20260717/simulator-piecewise-surface-v2/analysis/{comparison.json,comparison.md}`.
 
 ## Cost and provenance