Replace undrainable telemetry load with fresh rerun

docs/intervention-response-v3-two-load-protocol-20260714.md

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+# Phase-aware telemetry intervention-response v3 protocol
+
+Status: **FROZEN AFTER A NON-COMPARATIVE OPERATIONAL FAILURE AND BEFORE V3 RUNS**.
+
+Date: 2026-07-14 (Asia/Singapore).
+
+## Why v2 was invalid
+
+The first v2 session completed the 300-second arrival windows at 1.5 and 2.125
+requests/s/GPU.  At 3.125 requests/s/GPU, MNS=16 could not drain the admitted
+requests before the 450-second client timeout.  The session produced no result
+and no MNS=64 action endpoint was run.  V2 is therefore an invalid operational
+attempt, not evidence for or against the telemetry hypothesis.
+
+This failure was observed before any MNS action comparison.  V3 excludes only
+the unmeasurable overload point and reruns every retained point on fresh
+servers; it does not reuse the completed v2 low/mid results.
+
+## Question and hypothesis
+
+Question: after enough replay time for queue, batch, and KV state to develop,
+does an MNS intervention create telemetry responses that exceed workload-repeat
+noise, and does any such response predict whether the intervention repairs the
+full-run SLO outcome better than external prefix outcomes alone?
+
+Hypothesis: increasing MNS from 16 to 64 has little value at the 1.5
+requests/s/GPU control load but can repair the 2.125 requests/s/GPU pressure
+load.  Queue, running-set, batch, or KV telemetry should expose the difference
+at stable replay phases.  Label balance is an assumption to test, not a fact.
+
+## Frozen setup
+
+- Solo placement on dash0 GPU 0-3: 4 NVIDIA H20 GPUs, Qwen3-30B-A3B, patched
+  vLLM `0.24.1.dev3+opprof`, fixed TP=4.
+- Action: MNS `16 -> 64`; all other engine and workload parameters fixed.
+- Workload: `chat_w20260312_1000`, replay-time scale 0.5, hence 300 seconds.
+- Loads per GPU: 1.5 control and 2.125 pressure requests/s.  The failed 3.125
+  overload point is excluded from V3 and retained only as a failure artifact.
+- Three disjoint request bands.  Each MNS action pair has exact request,
+  arrival, and input-length hashes.  Endpoint order is A/B, B/A, A/B; load
+  order is low/mid, mid/low, low/mid.
+- Every session starts a fresh server, then runs the accepted 16-request long
+  warm-up and bounded burn-in before measured runs.
+- SLO-unrecoverable early stop is disabled.  Measured results must cover the
+  full 300-second arrival window and must not be early-stopped.
+- Cumulative checkpoints are 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%; non-overlapping
+  quarter blocks are also reported.
+- A Layer-1 interval is complete only if timestamps are monotonic and its
+  start, end, and maximum internal record gaps are each at most one second.
+- Incremental V3 cap is the unused portion of the original 8 H20-hour cap.
+  The exact prior cost and V3 cap are machine-recorded in the manifest.
+
+## Frozen gates
+
+Data validity requires six uncensored sessions, six action pairs, eight
+same-config repeat pairs, exact action-pair hashes, full request accounting,
+zero Layer-1 drops, continuous coverage, all stream/footer invariants, no
+co-resident compute process, idle GPUs before and after sessions, nonnegative
+counters, bounded ratios, non-identical per-config state, and monotonic request
+coverage across checkpoints.  Any red flag stops analysis.
+
+Mechanism evidence requires at least two telemetry features to exceed the
+unchanged v1 repeat-noise thresholds at the same pair of adjacent checkpoints.
+Those features must have a direction consistent in both retained load regimes.
+
+Decision evidence additionally requires at least two positive and two negative
+full-run action-efficacy labels, valid leave-one-repetition-out folds, and at
+least one phase-stable mechanism feature whose balanced accuracy is at least
+0.75 and at least 0.15 above the best external prefix-outcome feature at two
+adjacent predeclared checkpoints from 25% onward.
+
+V3 remains a development mechanism pilot.  Even `OPEN_E2E_POLICY_TEST` opens a
+held-out tuning-policy experiment; it is not itself a paper performance claim.