From 95c02d7dd9c40d114d43f6ec5811461ec22ef59e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Gahow Wang <gahow.wang@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 09:06:05 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] Fig-18: chained driver for 2 extra naive runs (n=3
 nondeterminism)

A single naive run can luck into the TP4 optimum at iter 1 (gpt-5.4 free-form
guess), which weakens the single-curve story. Run naive 2 more times on the same
real-output substrate to capture the fail/slow/lucky spread -- the actual finding.
Waits for ABLATION12_DONE so it never contends for GPUs with the main pair.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 scripts/run_naive_repeats_d1.sh | 26 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 1 file changed, 26 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 scripts/run_naive_repeats_d1.sh

diff --git a/scripts/run_naive_repeats_d1.sh b/scripts/run_naive_repeats_d1.sh
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..2ff94de
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/run_naive_repeats_d1.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# Fig-18 naive nondeterminism: after the main pair (ABLATION12_DONE) finishes, run
+# 2 more naive arms (runs 2 and 3) on the SAME substrate. The naive LLM (gpt-5.4,
+# use_harness=false) is nondeterministic, so the run-to-run spread (fail / slow /
+# lucky) is the result. Harness arm stays a single deterministic curve. Run from
+# the repo root on dash1; survives disconnect via setsid/nohup at launch.
+set -u
+export OPENAI_API_KEY=$(python3 -c 'import json,pathlib;print(json.load(open(pathlib.Path.home()/".codex/auth.json"))["OPENAI_API_KEY"])')
+export http_proxy= https_proxy= all_proxy= HTTP_PROXY= HTTPS_PROXY= ALL_PROXY= no_proxy='*'
+
+# Wait for the main harness+naive(run1) pair to complete so we never contend for GPUs.
+echo "=== waiting for ABLATION12_DONE $(date -Is) ==="
+while [ ! -f .aituner/ABLATION12_DONE ]; do sleep 120; done
+echo "=== main pair done, starting naive repeats $(date -Is) ==="
+
+for r in 2 3; do
+  rm -rf ".aituner/abl12-naive${r}" ".aituner/abl12-naive${r}.log"
+  echo "=== naive run ${r} start $(date -Is) ==="
+  PYTHONPATH=src python3 -m aituner.cli study tune \
+    --spec configs/examples/dash0_qwen27b_ablation_naive_off.json \
+    --store-root ".aituner/abl12-naive${r}" --max-trials 12 --skip-baseline > ".aituner/abl12-naive${r}.log" 2>&1
+  echo "=== naive run ${r} done  $(date -Is) ==="
+done
+
+touch .aituner/NAIVE_REPEATS_DONE
+echo "=== all naive repeats done $(date -Is) ==="