Add Qwen30 prefill fidelity experiment

runs/frontier-phase-factorial-v0/plot_mock_phase_factorial.py

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Render the preregistered phase-factorial hypothesis schematic (mock data)."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import matplotlib
+
+matplotlib.use("Agg")
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    labels = ("235B\nprefill-only", "235B\nmixed", "30B\nprefill-only", "30B\nmixed")
+    x = range(len(labels))
+    phase_hypothesis = (1.0, 18.0, 2.0, 28.0)
+    stack_hypothesis = (1.0, 4.0, 24.0, 30.0)
+
+    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8.6, 4.8), constrained_layout=True)
+    ax.plot(x, phase_hypothesis, marker="o", lw=2, label="H-phase (mock)")
+    ax.plot(x, stack_hypothesis, marker="s", lw=2, label="H-stack (mock)")
+    ax.axhline(5, color="black", ls="--", lw=1.2, label="5% regret gate")
+    ax.set_xticks(list(x), labels)
+    ax.set_ylabel("Worst selected-config regret (%) — MOCK DATA")
+    ax.set_title("Schematic only: predictions that distinguish phase vs stack explanations")
+    ax.set_ylim(0, 35)
+    ax.grid(axis="y", alpha=0.25)
+    ax.legend()
+    ax.text(
+        0.01,
+        0.98,
+        "MOCK DATA / NOT A RESULT",
+        transform=ax.transAxes,
+        va="top",
+        color="crimson",
+        weight="bold",
+    )
+    output = Path(__file__).with_name("mock-phase-factorial.png")
+    fig.savefig(output, dpi=180)
+    print(output)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()