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Report failed fidelity pilot gate

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Gahow Wang
2026-07-14 13:57:12 +08:00
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docs/fidelity-aware-harness-headroom-20260714.md
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# Fidelity-aware harness headroom audit
Status: **PROMISING PREMISE, NO CONTRIBUTION CLAIM**.
Status: **HISTORICAL PREMISE DID NOT PASS PROSPECTIVE P1; NO CONTRIBUTION CLAIM**.
The audit answers whether engine instrumentation has enough incremental signal
to justify a prospective experiment. It does not establish generalization.
Post-run update: the exact-timestamp held-out P1 completed and failed the
registered gate. Under the stronger simulator-aware `k=2` end-to-end replay,
telemetry preserved zero regret but saved only 1.426% online H20-hours versus
sim top-k + real final. The current route is closed; see
`docs/fidelity-aware-harness-p1-report-20260714.md`.
## Simulator shortlist lower bound
On the frozen 12-cell SimFid task, the strongest calibrated SLO simulator