#!/usr/bin/env python3 """Extract the predictive-versus-calibrated Frontier Qwen30B baseline.""" from __future__ import annotations import argparse import json from pathlib import Path from typing import Any MODES = ("uncalibrated/SLO-gated", "frozen-calibrated/SLO-gated") def load_json(path: Path) -> dict[str, Any]: with path.open(encoding="utf-8") as source: value = json.load(source) if not isinstance(value, dict): raise ValueError(f"expected JSON object: {path}") return value def extract(metrics: dict[str, Any], protocol: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any]: analyses = metrics["analyses"] rows = [] for mode in MODES: analysis = analyses[mode] values = analysis["metrics"] top1 = values["top1"] confusion = analysis["false_feasibility"]["overall"] rows.append( { "mode": mode, "selected_cells": top1["candidate_cells"], "optimistic_real_regret": top1["optimistic_regret"], "worst_case_real_regret": top1["worst_case_regret"], "kendall_tau_b": values["kendall_tau_b"]["tau_b"], "pairwise_exact_sign_accuracy": values["pairwise_direction"][ "exact_sign_accuracy" ], "false_feasible": confusion["false_feasible"], "false_infeasible": confusion["false_infeasible"], "agreement": confusion["agreement"], } ) return { "schema": "frontier-qwen30-calibration-audit-v0", "rows": rows, "calibration": { "fitted_a_tp": protocol["fitted_a_tp"], "fit_fixture": protocol["fit_fixture"], "holdout_fixture": protocol["holdout_fixture"], "loss": protocol["loss"], "refit_on_holdout": protocol["refit_on_holdout"], }, } def report(result: dict[str, Any]) -> str: lines = [ "# Qwen30B Frontier baseline audit", "", "| mode | selected cells | worst real regret | Kendall tau-b | pair sign accuracy | feasibility (agree/FP/FN) |", "|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|", ] for row in result["rows"]: lines.append( f"| {row['mode']} | {', '.join(row['selected_cells'])} " f"| {row['worst_case_real_regret']:.2%} | {row['kendall_tau_b']:.4f} " f"| {row['pairwise_exact_sign_accuracy']:.2%} " f"| {row['agreement']}/{row['false_feasible']}/{row['false_infeasible']} |" ) calibration = result["calibration"] lines.extend( [ "", "The calibrated mode applies a distinct end-to-end execution-time scale per TP: " + ", ".join( f"TP{tp}={value:.6f}" for tp, value in sorted(calibration["fitted_a_tp"].items()) ) + ".", "", f"Those scales were fitted against real total throughput on " f"`{calibration['fit_fixture']}` and checked without refitting on " f"`{calibration['holdout_fixture']}`. This validates within-workload transfer of " "the calibration, not zero-shot Frontier prediction across TP.", "", ] ) return "\n".join(lines) def main() -> None: parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() parser.add_argument("--metrics", type=Path, required=True) parser.add_argument("--calibration-protocol", type=Path, required=True) parser.add_argument("--output-dir", type=Path, required=True) args = parser.parse_args() result = extract(load_json(args.metrics), load_json(args.calibration_protocol)) args.output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) (args.output_dir / "metrics.json").write_text( json.dumps(result, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n", encoding="utf-8" ) (args.output_dir / "report.md").write_text(report(result), encoding="utf-8") if __name__ == "__main__": main()