{
  "boundary": "This identifies where the selection error is created, but the frozen real logs do not attribute service-time overprediction to one operator.",
  "cells": {
    "tp2_mns64": {
      "arrival_rate_requests_per_s": 2.25,
      "mns": 64,
      "real": {
        "e2e_ms": 3354.8816545874283,
        "periodic_queue": {
          "running_max": 10,
          "running_mean": 7.257142857142857,
          "samples": 35,
          "waiting_max": 0,
          "waiting_mean": 0.0
        },
        "required_slots_upper_bound": 7.548483722821714,
        "slot_margin_lower_bound": 56.451516277178285,
        "tpot_ms": 12.393283087182931,
        "ttft_ms": 194.56193759030603
      },
      "simulator": {
        "first_scheduling_delay_ms": 38.22329108338011,
        "queue_free_ttft_ms": 191.02937373774816,
        "request_execution_ms": 25761.91467886552,
        "required_slots": 57.96430802744742,
        "slot_margin": 6.035691972552577,
        "tpot_ms": 100.27798158873513,
        "ttft_ms": 229.2526648211283,
        "ttft_queue_fraction": 0.16672997503956338
      },
      "tp": 2,
      "tpot_overprediction_ratio": 8.091316956395687
    },
    "tp4_mns16": {
      "arrival_rate_requests_per_s": 4.5,
      "mns": 16,
      "real": {
        "e2e_ms": 3252.7993474094965,
        "periodic_queue": {
          "running_max": 16,
          "running_mean": 15.166666666666666,
          "samples": 18,
          "waiting_max": 0,
          "waiting_mean": 0.0
        },
        "required_slots_upper_bound": 14.637597063342735,
        "slot_margin_lower_bound": 1.362402936657265,
        "tpot_ms": 12.267737219892378,
        "ttft_ms": 124.49453797538061
      },
      "simulator": {
        "first_scheduling_delay_ms": 64906.25631809643,
        "queue_free_ttft_ms": 134.74066995065758,
        "request_execution_ms": 12108.627705569606,
        "required_slots": 54.488824675063235,
        "slot_margin": -38.488824675063235,
        "tpot_ms": 46.95641974752248,
        "ttft_ms": 65040.99698804708,
        "ttft_queue_fraction": 0.9979283732385681
      },
      "tp": 4,
      "tpot_overprediction_ratio": 3.8276349505907024
    },
    "tp4_mns32": {
      "arrival_rate_requests_per_s": 4.5,
      "mns": 32,
      "real": {
        "e2e_ms": 3227.015463910283,
        "periodic_queue": {
          "running_max": 16,
          "running_mean": 14.944444444444445,
          "samples": 18,
          "waiting_max": 0,
          "waiting_mean": 0.0
        },
        "required_slots_upper_bound": 14.521569587596273,
        "slot_margin_lower_bound": 17.478430412403725,
        "tpot_ms": 12.171863019540417,
        "ttft_ms": 123.15859724408143
      },
      "simulator": {
        "first_scheduling_delay_ms": 27180.676177927482,
        "queue_free_ttft_ms": 135.62147333612225,
        "request_execution_ms": 14643.080360640608,
        "required_slots": 65.89386162288272,
        "slot_margin": -33.893861622882724,
        "tpot_ms": 56.89199563649036,
        "ttft_ms": 27316.2976512636,
        "ttft_queue_fraction": 0.9950351444010626
      },
      "tp": 4,
      "tpot_overprediction_ratio": 4.6740581573385525
    },
    "tp4_mns64": {
      "arrival_rate_requests_per_s": 4.5,
      "mns": 64,
      "real": {
        "e2e_ms": 3258.202659738964,
        "periodic_queue": {
          "running_max": 17,
          "running_mean": 14.833333333333334,
          "samples": 18,
          "waiting_max": 0,
          "waiting_mean": 0.0
        },
        "required_slots_upper_bound": 14.661911968825338,
        "slot_margin_lower_bound": 49.338088031174664,
        "tpot_ms": 12.29409478300949,
        "ttft_ms": 123.17715882596677
      },
      "simulator": {
        "first_scheduling_delay_ms": 6367.273779218055,
        "queue_free_ttft_ms": 136.7304324624105,
        "request_execution_ms": 17736.957363112386,
        "required_slots": 79.81630813400574,
        "slot_margin": -15.816308134005737,
        "tpot_ms": 69.02049776725552,
        "ttft_ms": 6504.004211680465,
        "ttft_queue_fraction": 0.9789774993969319
      },
      "tp": 4,
      "tpot_overprediction_ratio": 5.614117914776633
    }
  },
  "contrasts": {
    "observed_sim_ttft_tp4_minus_tp2_ms": 27087.044986442474,
    "queue_free_sim_ttft_tp4_minus_tp2_ms": -55.40790040162591,
    "real_ttft_tp4_minus_tp2_ms": -71.4033403462246
  },
  "schema": "qwen30-fixed-pd-ttft-admission-diagnosis-v1",
  "selection": {
    "agreement": 0.5909090909090909,
    "concordant_pairs": 39,
    "discordant_pairs": 27,
    "informative_pairs": 66,
    "real_ranking": [
      "tp4_mns32",
      "tp4_mns64",
      "tp4_mns16",
      "tp2_mns64",
      "tp2_mns8",
      "tp2_mns32",
      "tp2_mns16",
      "tp1_mns8",
      "tp1_mns32",
      "tp1_mns16",
      "tp1_mns64",
      "tp4_mns8"
    ],
    "real_winner": "tp4_mns32",
    "selected_config_real_regret": 0.5797674051508896,
    "sim_ranking": [
      "tp2_mns64",
      "tp1_mns64",
      "tp4_mns64",
      "tp1_mns32",
      "tp2_mns32",
      "tp4_mns32",
      "tp4_mns16",
      "tp2_mns16",
      "tp1_mns16",
      "tp4_mns8",
      "tp2_mns8",
      "tp1_mns8"
    ],
    "sim_winner": "tp2_mns64",
    "tied_pairs": 0,
    "winner_match": false
  },
  "status": "PASS",
  "verdict": "Frontier overpredicts decode service time, so TP4's higher global arrival rate crosses the MNS admission cap only in simulation. The resulting first-scheduling queue reverses the TP topology ranking; without that queue Frontier itself predicts TP4 faster than TP2, matching real hardware.",
  "workload": "Qwen3-30B Fixed-PD 4096->256 at 1.125 req/s/GPU"
}