Confirm MOC orders were accepted before reporting success

rebalance used to sleep 3 s and record whatever status TWS had sent; on
2026-09-29 every order was still PendingSubmit with permId 0. Now it waits
up to 30 s for PreSubmitted/Submitted/Filled, records the final statuses in
orders.csv either way, and exits non-zero naming any rejected or
unacknowledged order so the systemd unit's failure is visible.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/ibkr_quant/cli.py

@@ -195,7 +195,11 @@ async def rebalance(cfg: Config, submit: bool) -> None:
             broker.place(contracts[o.symbol], o.delta, ex.order_type, limits.get(o.symbol), f"ibkr-quant {run_dir.name}")
             for o in orders
         ]
-        await asyncio.sleep(3)  # let TWS acknowledge before recording status
+        confirmation_error = None
+        try:
+            await broker.confirm_orders(trades)
+        except RuntimeError as exc:
+            confirmation_error = exc
         submitted = pd.DataFrame(
             [
                 {
@@ -213,7 +217,9 @@ async def rebalance(cfg: Config, submit: bool) -> None:
         )
         submitted.to_csv(run_dir / "orders.csv", index=False)
         print(submitted.to_string(index=False))
-        print(f"submitted {len(trades)} orders -> {run_dir}")
+        if confirmation_error:
+            raise SystemExit(f"{confirmation_error}; recorded status -> {run_dir}")
+        print(f"accepted {len(trades)} orders -> {run_dir}")
 
 
 def run_backtest(cfg: Config, top_ns: list[int], everies: list[int], capitals: list[float], fee: str) -> None: