On 2026-10-13 the 09:53 ET run placed six MOC orders and failed: the paper account reports MOC orders as PendingSubmit until the closing auction and sent no acknowledgement within 30 s, so confirm_orders treated them as rejected. IBKR listed all six with permanent ids and filled them at the close, as it did the 14 PendingSubmit orders of 2026-09-29. Every retry then stopped at "6 open orders already exist", and after 15:45 ET at the order window, and the start limit's 6-hour window reset at 15:50 ET, so the job restarted every 10 minutes into the evening (42 restarts by 17:28 ET). - confirm_orders accepts a PendingSubmit order once IBKR lists it with a permanent id, re-reading this client's open orders every 5 s for up to 60 s. - rebalance --submit succeeds without sending anything when every open order comes from today's runs and IBKR still holds every order those runs sent; a missing one still fails. - The trade unit skips starts after 15:45 ET (ExecCondition), which systemd does not restart. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
334 lines
18 KiB
Python
334 lines
18 KiB
Python
import argparse
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import asyncio
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import dataclasses
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import datetime as dt
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import json
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import logging
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from pathlib import Path
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import pandas as pd
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from .broker import NEW_YORK, Broker
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from .config import Config, load_config
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from .rebalance import plan_orders
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from . import backtest
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from .strategy import WARMUP, select_with_buffer, sessions_until_rebalance, signal_overnight_recovery
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from .universe import fetch_sp500, load_universe
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# MOC orders must reach NYSE by 15:50 ET; keep a margin.
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ORDER_WINDOW = (dt.time(9, 31), dt.time(15, 45))
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def update_universe(cfg: Config) -> None:
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table = fetch_sp500()
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cfg.data.universe.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
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table.to_csv(cfg.data.universe, index=False)
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print(f"{len(table)} symbols -> {cfg.data.universe}")
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def show_rebalance_schedule(cfg: Config, today: dt.date) -> None:
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if not cfg.data.bars.exists():
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print("rebalance schedule unavailable: no daily bars; run `make bars`")
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return
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dates = pd.read_csv(cfg.data.bars, usecols=["date"], parse_dates=["date"])["date"]
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sessions = pd.DatetimeIndex(dates.dropna().unique()).sort_values()
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sessions = sessions[sessions.date <= today]
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if sessions.empty:
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print("rebalance schedule unavailable: no sessions through today; run `make bars`")
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return
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last = sessions[-1].date()
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st = cfg.strategy
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wait = sessions_until_rebalance(sessions, st.anchor, st.rebalance_every)
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if wait is None:
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schedule = f"first trading session on or after {st.anchor}"
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elif wait == 0:
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schedule = f"{last} (0 trading sessions remaining)"
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else:
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schedule = f"in {wait} trading sessions"
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print(f"next rebalance: {schedule} (as of {last}; every {st.rebalance_every} trading sessions)")
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if last < today:
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print(f"Bars end {last}; run `make bars` to update the rebalance countdown for {today}.")
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async def check(cfg: Config) -> None:
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async with Broker(cfg.ib) as broker:
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state = await broker.account_state()
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print(f"account {state.account} NAV ${state.nav_usd:,.2f} cash ${state.cash_usd:,.2f}")
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holdings = pd.DataFrame([dataclasses.asdict(h) for h in state.holdings])
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print(holdings.to_string(index=False) if len(holdings) else "no positions")
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trades = await broker.open_trades()
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print(f"{len(trades)} open orders")
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for t in trades:
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print(f" {t.contract.symbol} {t.order.action} {t.order.totalQuantity} {t.order.orderType} {t.orderStatus.status}")
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show_rebalance_schedule(cfg, dt.datetime.now(NEW_YORK).date())
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contracts, _ = await broker.qualify_stocks(["SPY"])
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if "SPY" not in contracts:
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print("no SPY price: IBKR could not qualify the SPY contract")
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return
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errors: dict[int, str] = {}
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def on_error(req_id, code, message, contract):
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if contract == contracts["SPY"]:
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errors[code] = message
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broker.ib.errorEvent += on_error
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try:
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prices = await broker.snapshot_prices(contracts)
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finally:
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broker.ib.errorEvent -= on_error
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if "SPY" in prices:
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print(f"SPY snapshot {prices['SPY']:.2f} (requested market_data_type={cfg.ib.market_data_type})")
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else:
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reason = "; ".join(f"IBKR {code}: {message}" for code, message in errors.items()) or "no valid snapshot received"
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print(f"no SPY price (requested market_data_type={cfg.ib.market_data_type}): {reason}")
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if 10197 in errors:
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print(
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"Log out of the competing live market-data session, then retry `make check`. "
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"Delayed mode (3/4) does not force delayed quotes when live data permissions exist; "
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"changing ib.market_data_type cannot resolve this session conflict."
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)
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elif cfg.ib.market_data_type in (1, 2):
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print("Check the market data subscription, or set ib.market_data_type = 3 to allow delayed data.")
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else:
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print("Delayed data is already requested; check market data permissions and availability in IB Gateway/TWS.")
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async def probe_gateway(cfg: Config, history: bool = False) -> None:
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# Broker's connect fails unless the Gateway answers positions, orders and
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# account updates, which needs a live session with IBKR's servers.
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async with Broker(dataclasses.replace(cfg.ib, client_id=cfg.ib.health_client_id)) as broker:
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status = f"account {broker.account}, server version {broker.ib.client.serverVersion()}"
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if history:
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# The historical data farm can fail on its own: on 2026-10-12 account requests
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# worked while every bar request timed out for 35 minutes, until the Gateway's
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# daily restart. Without this check `make gateway` never restarted it.
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contracts, _ = await broker.qualify_stocks(["SPY"])
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bars = (await broker.daily_bars(contracts, "5 D", timeout=30))[0] if contracts else None
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if bars is None or bars.empty:
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raise SystemExit(f"IB Gateway answers account requests ({status}) but returned no SPY bars "
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"within 30 s; its historical data farm is not serving")
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status += f", historical data OK (SPY through {bars['date'].max()})"
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print(f"IB Gateway OK: {status}")
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async def update_bars(cfg: Config) -> None:
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symbols = load_universe(cfg.data.universe)
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async with Broker(cfg.ib) as broker:
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contracts, unknown = await broker.qualify_stocks(symbols)
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# Fail fast when the historical farm is down instead of timing out every symbol.
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probe = dict([next(iter(contracts.items()))])
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if (await broker.daily_bars(probe, "5 D", timeout=30))[0].empty:
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raise SystemExit(f"no historical data for {next(iter(probe))}; check the Gateway's HMDS farm status")
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bars, failed = await broker.daily_bars(contracts, cfg.data.bars_duration)
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if bars.empty:
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raise SystemExit(f"no bars for any of {len(contracts)} symbols; kept existing {cfg.data.bars}")
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cfg.data.bars.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
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bars.to_csv(cfg.data.bars, index=False)
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print(f"{bars['symbol'].nunique()} symbols, {bars['date'].min()} .. {bars['date'].max()} -> {cfg.data.bars}")
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if unknown:
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print(f"unqualified contracts ({len(unknown)}): {unknown}")
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if failed:
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print(f"no bars ({len(failed)}): {failed}")
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def load_bars(path: Path, today: dt.date) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame]:
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bars = pd.read_csv(path, parse_dates=["date"])
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opens, closes = (bars.pivot(index="date", columns="symbol", values=v).sort_index() for v in ("open", "close"))
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if opens.index[-1].date() != today:
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raise SystemExit(f"bars end {opens.index[-1].date()}, need today's open ({today}); run `make bars` after 09:30 ET")
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return opens, closes
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async def rebalance(cfg: Config, submit: bool) -> None:
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ex, st = cfg.execution, cfg.strategy
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now = dt.datetime.now(NEW_YORK)
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universe = set(load_universe(cfg.data.universe))
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opens, closes = load_bars(cfg.data.bars, now.date())
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wait = sessions_until_rebalance(opens.index, st.anchor, st.rebalance_every)
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if wait != 0:
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after = f"in {wait} sessions" if wait else f"on the first session from {st.anchor}"
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print(f"not a rebalance session; holdings drift until the next one {after}")
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return
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# Today's bar is still forming, so the signal uses completed sessions only.
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history = opens.index[:-1]
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if len(history) <= WARMUP:
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raise SystemExit(f"need more than {WARMUP} completed sessions of bars, have {len(history)}")
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members = opens.columns.intersection(sorted(universe))
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score = signal_overnight_recovery(opens.loc[history, members], closes.loc[history, members]).iloc[-1]
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run_dir = cfg.root / "runs" / now.strftime("%Y%m%d-%H%M%S")
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async with Broker(cfg.ib) as broker:
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state = await broker.account_state()
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# The strategy owns the whole account: every position it does not select is sold.
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# Orders go out as SMART/USD stocks, so any other kind of position stops the run.
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if foreign := [h.symbol for h in state.holdings if (h.sec_type, h.currency) != ("STK", "USD")]:
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raise SystemExit(f"positions that are not USD stocks: {foreign}; close them before rebalancing")
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investable = state.nav_usd * (1 - ex.cash_buffer)
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weights = select_with_buffer(score, {h.symbol for h in state.holdings}, st.top_n, st.buffer)
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# Sized at today's open, the latest price in the bars; filled at the close. A holding
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# outside the index has no bars and takes the account's price; its exit size does not use it.
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orders = plan_orders(
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weights,
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{h.symbol: h.quantity for h in state.holdings},
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{h.symbol: h.market_price for h in state.holdings} | opens.iloc[-1].dropna().to_dict(),
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investable,
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max(ex.min_trade_value, ex.min_trade_fraction * state.nav_usd),
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ex.resize_band,
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)
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run_dir.mkdir(parents=True)
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plan = pd.DataFrame([dataclasses.asdict(o) for o in orders], columns=["symbol", "current", "target", "delta", "price"])
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plan["weight"] = plan["symbol"].map(weights).fillna(0.0)
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plan.to_csv(run_dir / "plan.csv", index=False)
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(run_dir / "account.json").write_text(json.dumps(dataclasses.asdict(state), indent=2))
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print(f"account {state.account} NAV ${state.nav_usd:,.2f} investable ${investable:,.2f} signal on sessions through {history[-1].date()}")
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print(plan.to_string(index=False) if len(plan) else "no orders")
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if not submit or not orders:
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print(f"dry run -> {run_dir}")
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return
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if not ORDER_WINDOW[0] <= now.time() <= ORDER_WINDOW[1]:
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raise SystemExit(f"{now:%H:%M} ET is outside the order window {ORDER_WINDOW[0]}-{ORDER_WINDOW[1]}")
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if open_trades := await broker.open_trades():
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# A run whose confirmation timed out exits non-zero and the trade service retries it;
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# if IBKR holds every order that run sent, the session's orders are in.
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refs = {t.order.orderRef for t in open_trades}
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sent = [cfg.root / "runs" / ref.removeprefix("ibkr-quant ") / "orders.csv" for ref in refs]
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if all(ref.startswith(f"ibkr-quant {now:%Y%m%d}-") for ref in refs) and all(p.exists() for p in sent):
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sent_ids = set(pd.concat(pd.read_csv(p) for p in sent)["order_id"])
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if missing := sent_ids - {t.order.orderId for t in open_trades}:
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raise SystemExit(f"today's orders {sorted(missing)} are no longer open at IBKR "
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"(rejected, cancelled or filled); see `make check`")
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print(f"{len(open_trades)} orders from {', '.join(sorted(refs))} are open at IBKR; not submitting again")
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return
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raise SystemExit(f"{len(open_trades)} open orders already exist; cancel or let them finish first")
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contracts, unknown = await broker.qualify_stocks([o.symbol for o in orders])
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if unknown:
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raise SystemExit(f"unqualified contracts: {unknown}")
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limits: dict[str, float] = {}
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if ex.order_type == "LMT":
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snapshot = await broker.snapshot_prices(contracts)
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if missing := [o.symbol for o in orders if o.symbol not in snapshot]:
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raise SystemExit(f"no snapshot price for {missing}")
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offset = ex.limit_offset_bps / 1e4
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limits = {
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o.symbol: round(snapshot[o.symbol] * (1 + offset if o.delta > 0 else 1 - offset), 2)
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for o in orders
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}
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trades = [
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broker.place(contracts[o.symbol], o.delta, ex.order_type, limits.get(o.symbol), f"ibkr-quant {run_dir.name}")
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for o in orders
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]
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confirmation_error = None
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try:
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await broker.confirm_orders(trades)
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except RuntimeError as exc:
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confirmation_error = exc
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submitted = pd.DataFrame(
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[
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{
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"symbol": t.contract.symbol,
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"action": t.order.action,
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"quantity": t.order.totalQuantity,
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"order_type": ex.order_type,
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"limit": limits.get(t.contract.symbol),
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"order_id": t.order.orderId,
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"perm_id": t.order.permId,
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"status": t.orderStatus.status,
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}
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for t in trades
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]
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)
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submitted.to_csv(run_dir / "orders.csv", index=False)
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print(submitted.to_string(index=False))
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if confirmation_error:
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raise SystemExit(f"{confirmation_error}; recorded status -> {run_dir}")
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print(f"accepted {len(trades)} orders -> {run_dir}")
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def run_backtest(cfg: Config, top_ns: list[int], everies: list[int], capitals: list[float], fee: str) -> None:
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st = cfg.strategy
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bars = pd.read_csv(cfg.data.bars, parse_dates=["date"])
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opens = bars.pivot(index="date", columns="symbol", values="open").sort_index()
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closes = bars.pivot(index="date", columns="symbol", values="close").sort_index()
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# As live: pick among the index members of each day, scoring them on their
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# full price history. Only today's members are known, so names removed from
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# the index are missing (survivorship bias remains).
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added = pd.read_csv(cfg.data.universe, parse_dates=["added"]).set_index("symbol")["added"]
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member = pd.DataFrame(opens.index.values[:, None] >= added.reindex(opens.columns).values[None, :],
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index=opens.index, columns=opens.columns)
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# Row d holds the signal from sessions through d - 1, known at d's open.
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signal = signal_overnight_recovery(opens, closes, member).shift(1)
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fee_model = backtest.ibkr_fixed_fee if fee == "ibkr-fixed" else backtest.flat_fee(2.0)
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rows = []
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for capital in capitals:
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for every in everies:
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for top_n in top_ns:
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run_cfg = backtest.RunConfig(top_n, every, st.buffer, capital, fee_model)
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result = backtest.run(signal, opens, closes, run_cfg)
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rows.append({"capital": capital, "every": every, "top_n": top_n} | backtest.metrics(result, capital))
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days = signal.index[backtest.WARMUP:]
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# Same-universe baseline: equal weight, re-weighted at every close, no costs.
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ew = closes.ffill().pct_change().shift(-1).loc[days[:-1]].mean(axis=1)
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table = pd.DataFrame(rows)
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path = cfg.root / "runs" / f"backtest-{dt.datetime.now(NEW_YORK):%Y%m%d-%H%M%S}.csv"
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path.parent.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
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table.to_csv(path, index=False)
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pct = ["total", "h1", "h2", "vol", "max_dd", "turnover_day", "fees_pct"]
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print(f"{days[0].date()} .. {days[-1].date()} ({len(days)} sessions), fee={fee}")
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print(f"equal-weight universe: total {((1 + ew).prod() - 1) * 100:.1f}%, sharpe {ew.mean() / ew.std() * 252 ** 0.5:.2f}")
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print(table.assign(**{c: (table[c] * 100).round(1) for c in pct}).round({"sharpe": 2}).to_string(index=False))
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print(f"-> {path}")
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async def fills(cfg: Config) -> None:
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async with Broker(cfg.ib) as broker:
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executions = await broker.executions()
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if executions.empty:
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print("no executions")
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return
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path = cfg.root / "runs" / f"fills-{dt.datetime.now(NEW_YORK):%Y%m%d}.csv"
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path.parent.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
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executions.to_csv(path, index=False)
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print(executions.to_string(index=False))
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print(f"-> {path}")
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def main() -> None:
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parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(prog="ibkr-quant")
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parser.add_argument("--config", type=Path, default=Path("config.toml"))
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commands = parser.add_subparsers(dest="command", required=True)
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commands.add_parser("universe", help="download S&P 500 constituents")
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commands.add_parser("check", help="connect and show account, positions, open orders, SPY price")
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gateway_parser = commands.add_parser("gateway", help="exit non-zero unless IB Gateway answers account requests")
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gateway_parser.add_argument("--history", action="store_true", help="also require SPY daily bars from the historical data farm")
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commands.add_parser("bars", help="download adjusted daily bars for the universe")
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rebalance_parser = commands.add_parser("rebalance", help="plan orders (dry run unless --submit)")
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rebalance_parser.add_argument("--submit", action="store_true")
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commands.add_parser("fills", help="show today's executions")
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backtest_parser = commands.add_parser("backtest", help="replay the strategy on the downloaded bars")
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backtest_parser.add_argument("--top-n", type=int, nargs="+", help="default: strategy.top_n")
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backtest_parser.add_argument("--every", type=int, nargs="+", help="rebalance interval in sessions; default: strategy.rebalance_every")
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backtest_parser.add_argument("--capital", type=float, nargs="+", default=[1_000_000])
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backtest_parser.add_argument("--fee", choices=["ibkr-fixed", "flat2"], default="ibkr-fixed")
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args = parser.parse_args()
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logging.basicConfig(level=logging.WARNING, format="%(asctime)s %(levelname)s %(name)s: %(message)s")
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cfg = load_config(args.config)
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match args.command:
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case "universe":
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update_universe(cfg)
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case "check":
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asyncio.run(check(cfg))
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case "gateway":
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asyncio.run(probe_gateway(cfg, args.history))
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case "bars":
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asyncio.run(update_bars(cfg))
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case "rebalance":
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asyncio.run(rebalance(cfg, args.submit))
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case "fills":
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asyncio.run(fills(cfg))
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case "backtest":
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run_backtest(cfg, args.top_n or [cfg.strategy.top_n], args.every or [cfg.strategy.rebalance_every], args.capital, args.fee)
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