diff --git a/research/lab/no_letf_book.py b/research/lab/no_letf_book.py index da34eb9..7e72ea0 100644 --- a/research/lab/no_letf_book.py +++ b/research/lab/no_letf_book.py @@ -81,6 +81,24 @@ Reported after the verdict (exploratory, not gated): - IBKR's API refuses fractional orders (error 10243, what-if 2026-10-13). At $10k the momentum half holds $500 a name; 5 of the 2026-10-12 top 10 cost more than that. + - Two checks run after that: + - The margin-levered trend does not beat QQQ outside the crash years. From + 2010, x2 earns 16.4% at MaxDD -50% vs QQQ's 19.2% at -35%. From 2006 the + two are even: 17.1% / -50% vs 16.6% / -53%. + - What does beat QQQ in every window is the overnight momentum sleeve alone + (overnight_only.py sleeve_score, 1x, no leveraged ETF), provided orders + are cheap. Cost per side = 0.2 bp measured + $0.35 / order size + 0.1 bp: + + venue / account 2006-26 CAGR / MaxDD / Sharpe 2010-26 2017-26 + QQQ 16.6% / -53% / 0.73 19.2% / -35% / 0.88 21.6% / -35% / 0.86 + $0 commission 35.7% / -30% / 1.40 29.9% / -30% / 1.32 34.2% / -30% / 1.31 + IBKR Tiered $10k (3.8bp) 13.2% / -36% / 0.59 8.3% / -36% / 0.42 12.0% / -36% / 0.51 + IBKR Tiered $25k (1.7bp) 25.9% / -31% / 1.06 20.4% / -31% / 0.95 24.5% / -31% / 0.98 + IBKR Tiered $50k (1.0bp) 30.4% / -31% / 1.22 24.7% / -31% / 1.12 28.9% / -31% / 1.13 + + Same caveats as overnight_only.py: the signal was chosen on this panel, + the panel is survivor-biased before about 2014, and live fills are + untested. """ from __future__ import annotations