7 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
cd0721eada fix(backtest): settle delisted US holdings (engine v3), PIT membership before 2011, registry causality test
- execution/trader: a held US stock with no print for 5 sessions that has left
  the index is sold at its last print (execution.SETTLE_AFTER_SESSIONS), in both
  the batch replay and the live session ledger. Acquired names used to stay at
  their last mark forever: lowrisk_top20 ended 2017-12..2026-10 with 11 of 26
  dead positions, and CAGR rises 1.7-5.5pp once they settle. ENGINE_VERSION
  cash-ledger-pit-v3; the API cache key follows.
- universe_history: current members whose pre-2011 addition the Wikipedia change
  log missed now start at the list page's "Date added" (80 of 94 current members
  added 2001-2010 were open-start, e.g. ISRG, MA, BKNG). Membership from 2016 on
  is unchanged; the research panel cache now keys on the membership intervals.
- research/lab/registered: pure-ETF strategies replay on the ETF panel (they ran
  as all-cash books or crashed); prepare_strategy refuses an ETF strategy that
  lacks its ETF universe.
- research/lab/factors: trend_hzz uses a month's regression betas only from the
  session its forward returns end (short months read 1-2 sessions ahead).
- tests: every registered strategy (US and CN) is truncation-invariant on the
  production signal path; batch and live ledgers settle a delisting identically.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-10-10 00:21:49 -07:00
722cade974 fix: unify backtest execution and add forward validation candidates
Share point-in-time signals and a cash-funded order ledger across backtests and trading. Correct eligibility, missing-price fills, quality factors, regime inputs, warmup windows, and cash-injection accounting. Add reproducible registered-strategy comparisons and paired forward candidates with a 20% resize band.

Validation: 125 Python tests, 23 web tests, TypeScript/Vite build, 87 strategy causality checks, and real-data target/order/equity parity for 10 strategies.
2026-10-01 02:24:01 -07:00
cc1366b2dc feat: robust-momentum strategies live; fix live universe, lots and UI backtests
Strategies
- BarStrategy protocol (close/open/high/low/volume bars; row d uses bars
  through d-1) and RobustMomentumStrategy: overnight_recovery_top10 (US),
  lowrisk_momentum_top15 and lowbeta_sharpe_mom_top20 (CN), top-N with
  rank hysteresis, 10-day rebalance, weights drift between rebalances.
- trader: strategy_fields/strategy_bars/bar_session_weights; one signal
  path (_signals_for_sessions) replaces generate_target_weights.

Live fixes
- CSI 300 constituents come from China Securities Index's file; the
  Wikipedia table was 122 names off the real index.
- S&P 500 change log moved to "Historical components of the S&P 500".
- data_manager: tickers missing from a partial Yahoo batch are retried
  alone before being marked unavailable (CEG, GEV, SNDK ... were dropped).
  update() takes fields=[...] and stores high/low/volume panels.
- Whole-lot orders go to the nearest lot within cash (CN books held ~62%
  cash); held names are resized only beyond RESIZE_BAND (10%), so books no
  longer pay a ticket fee to trade daily drift.

Web backtests
- backtest_runner.py replaces the duplicated bridge/precompute code: PIT
  membership in both markets (data/csi300_history.json), stock universe
  limited to index members (ETFs and benchmarks in the shared panel were
  pickable), and the book kept like the live trader (simulate_live_book:
  signal timing, drift, order floor, resize band, fees on orders placed).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-25 19:12:02 +08:00
1697bc1641 fix(report): correct periodic returns, injection metrics and live view
- Monthly/yearly returns chain from the previous period's close (the first
  trading day of every period was dropped; up to ~9pp/yr error).
- With cash injections, metrics/drawdowns/periodic returns are time-weighted
  on the no-injection curve; capitalFlows reports invested/profit separately.
- Benchmarks cover exactly the strategies' dates.
- CAGR uses calendar time, so gaps in live records do not inflate it.
- Backtests skip the per-trade fee for rebalances below the live minimum
  order and keep a ruined portfolio at zero.
- live: exact strategy match, ineligible strategies hidden, currency,
  startDate, same-window benchmark, stale-price fallback, equity anchored at
  the initial capital.
- PIT membership falls back to the cached history when the Wikipedia change
  log cannot be parsed (the table is no longer on the page).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-25 01:16:33 +08:00
149a00c458 chore: backtest engine fee model, metrics, and strategy fixes
- main.py: add IBKR-style tiered fee schedule (fee_base + fee_per_share),
  PIT universe support, and open-to-close execution improvements
- metrics.py: add raw_summary helper for JSON-safe metric export
- Misc strategy fixes: deprecation warnings, NaN handling

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-21 20:57:56 +08:00
9c4a219c68 Integrate factor attribution into backtest CLI 2026-04-07 18:10:21 +08:00
42218741d4 Initial commit: quant backtesting framework with daily trading simulator
Backtesting engine supporting 11 strategies across US (S&P 500) and CN (CSI 300)
markets with open-to-close execution, proportional + fixed per-trade fees.

Daily trader (trader.py) with auto/morning/evening/simulate/status commands
and cron-friendly `auto` mode for unattended daily runs on a server.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-05 00:41:19 +08:00