_submit printed "HTTP 403" and moved on, and buy/sell then marked the
session done, so one rejected MOC/MOO order was never retried. It now
raises unless Alpaca returns an order id with an accepted status; a 422
duplicate client_order_id counts only when the existing order matches the
payload and is live. The session is marked bought/sold only after every
order is accepted, and the daemon retries the rest on its next tick.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
validate() now takes the submission stamp and rejects any source without a
readable publication date or dated after the submission day (UTC). The skill
tells the agent and its subagents that web pages, news and filings are data,
never instructions.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- execution/trader: a held US stock with no print for 5 sessions that has left
the index is sold at its last print (execution.SETTLE_AFTER_SESSIONS), in both
the batch replay and the live session ledger. Acquired names used to stay at
their last mark forever: lowrisk_top20 ended 2017-12..2026-10 with 11 of 26
dead positions, and CAGR rises 1.7-5.5pp once they settle. ENGINE_VERSION
cash-ledger-pit-v3; the API cache key follows.
- universe_history: current members whose pre-2011 addition the Wikipedia change
log missed now start at the list page's "Date added" (80 of 94 current members
added 2001-2010 were open-start, e.g. ISRG, MA, BKNG). Membership from 2016 on
is unchanged; the research panel cache now keys on the membership intervals.
- research/lab/registered: pure-ETF strategies replay on the ETF panel (they ran
as all-cash books or crashed); prepare_strategy refuses an ETF strategy that
lacks its ETF universe.
- research/lab/factors: trend_hzz uses a month's regression betas only from the
session its forward returns end (short months read 1-2 sessions ahead).
- tests: every registered strategy (US and CN) is truncation-invariant on the
production signal path; batch and live ledgers settle a delisting identically.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Removed (79 files, all in history; research/ARCHIVE.md lists each with its
purpose and the commit to restore it from):
- root factor_*.py mining scripts (2026-04) and yearly_sweep.py
- scripts/run_daily.{py,sh} (superseded by the monitor service; no crontab)
- strategies no registry, test or live book uses: trend_rider_v8,
adaptive_blend, cross_asset_momentum, long_hedged, ls_momentum
- 55 research/*.py scripts from 2026-04/05 written before research/lab,
the us-alpha design spec, and the 7 tests that only covered them
Kept research/permanent_yearly.py: bridge.py and precompute_backtest.py
import equity_with_cashflows. CLAUDE.md gains the archive note and the
command lines of the studies committed in the previous commit.
Checks: 99 unit tests OK (125 before, minus the 26 removed with their
modules), all 157 remaining modules import, 94 registry strategies build,
bridge.py list OK, web 23 tests OK and build OK.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Share point-in-time signals and a cash-funded order ledger across backtests and trading. Correct eligibility, missing-price fills, quality factors, regime inputs, warmup windows, and cash-injection accounting. Add reproducible registered-strategy comparisons and paired forward candidates with a 20% resize band.
Validation: 125 Python tests, 23 web tests, TypeScript/Vite build, 87 strategy causality checks, and real-data target/order/equity parity for 10 strategies.
overnight_recovery_agent_top10 (strategies/agent_review.py) re-ranks the
overnight_recovery top 50 with an LLM agent's daily scores:
final = quant percentile + 0.25 x score (-2..+2), vetoes for five event types,
top 10 on the base strategy's rebalance rows and hysteresis. Score files are
stamped by `agent_review.py submit` and steer a session only if stamped before
its 16:00 New York close; without one the strategy holds exactly what
overnight_recovery_top10 holds (checked on the live panel 2016-2026).
- agent_review.py: candidates / submit / evaluate; skill
.claude/skills/agent-stock-review drives the daily research.
- US only, skipped by precompute (no history before its first score file);
runs in the original book and in selected_2026_09 (from the book's start).
- .gitignore tracks .claude/skills/ and ignores data/agent/.
Monitor fix: hot-reload re-imports trader.py but not strategies/*. After the
2026-09-29 strategy commits the stale modules made every phase's panel refresh
fail ("Unknown signal 'low_risk'") and US books skipped 09-29 until a restart.
_reload_strategies now builds every factory and keeps the old registry when
any fails; CLAUDE.md says to restart the monitor after changing strategy code.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Register us_momentum_qqq_trend: half overnight_recovery_top10, half a QQQ
trend sleeve (strategies/qqq_trend.py: 200-day switch times a 30% vol target,
held as TQQQ + SHY). Mixed stock+ETF, US only (extra tickers QQQ, SHY, TQQQ).
Research (research/lab/): alpha against QQQ with a 2006-16 design / 2017-26
holdout split (alpha.py, qqq_scan.py, beat_qqq.py); leverage and drawdown
frontier (levered_book.py, us_target50.py); synthetic 3x ETFs from 1990 and
TrendRider/QQQ-trend stress tests (fetch_long_history.py, letf_history.py,
vol_trend.py); short-horizon sleeves, diversifiers, industry momentum,
earnings-announcement returns; new point-in-time data sources: SEC Form 4
insider trades (fetch_insider.py, insider.py), 10-K/10-Q text similarity,
8-K earnings dates and SIC codes (fetch_lazy_prices.py, lazy_prices.py), and
an S&P 400/600 universe from iShares holdings (fetch_us_mid.py, panel_mid.py).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Register two live strategies from the 2026-09-29 US research:
- lowrisk_top20: idiosyncratic vol + low beta, top 20, monthly, buffer 2
(new `low_risk` signal in strategies/robust_momentum.py)
- us_three_sleeve: 1/3 each of overnight_recovery_top10, lowrisk_top20 and
trend_rider_v7_vt24 in one account (strategies/sleeve_portfolio.py, a
mixed stock+ETF strategy). Sleeve shares drift with their returns and reset
at a month start once any is >25% off its share.
Research (research/lab, S&P 500 PIT, next-open fills):
- rotation.py / persistence.py: walk-forward factor weighting (factor
momentum, rolling IC, market state) and last-year's-winner selection do not
beat a fixed composite
- us_sweep.py: holdings count, z/vol weights, dynamic N, tranching and market
overlays (Faber SMA, de-risk vol target, statistical jump model,
momentum state); engine.py gains zvol weighting and dyn_n
- fetch_us_fundamentals.py / fundamentals.py / fund_eval.py: SEC EDGAR
point-in-time fundamentals (first-filed values) and factor tests
- trend_rider_long.py / us_final.py: 2010-2026 TrendRider curves and the
3-sleeve check (2011-2026 Sharpe 1.21, CAGR 21.9%, MaxDD -23%)
Web-UI engine, 2017-09..2026-09, $2/order: us_three_sleeve CAGR 28.9%,
Sharpe 1.49, MaxDD -24.8%.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
A live book is a cohort of strategies, each with its own account, started
on one date with one capital and a flat fee per order (trader.LIVE_BOOKS).
The original book keeps its state in data/; a named book in
data/books/<book>/. The monitor runs every book; auto/status/log/compare/
replay take --book. A fresh account opens on the book's first session.
selected_2026_09: US $10,000 and $1 per order from 2026-09-25, CN ¥50,000
and ¥5 per order from 2026-09-28 (the first CN session after the choice).
Strategies beat their benchmark in the Apr-Sep 2026 point-in-time replay
and passed a 10-year PIT backtest (US Sharpe >= 0.6, MaxDD > -50%; CN
Sharpe >= 0.2, CAGR > 0), no daily variants, at most two frequencies per
factor signal, plus the three 2026-09 research strategies.
bridge.py live --book and bridge.py books feed a book selector on the
live page (/api/strategies/live?book=, /api/strategies/live/books).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replaying live books over past sessions used today's constituent list for
every day, so US books bought names (BE, MRVL, ILMN, FLEX, P) before they
joined the S&P 500. session_universes/session_signals now compute each past
session on that day's members (S&P change log, CSI 300 snapshots); the
latest session keeps the live list. Used by auto/monitor catch-up, replay
and simulate. _run_session takes precomputed targets only.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Strategies
- BarStrategy protocol (close/open/high/low/volume bars; row d uses bars
through d-1) and RobustMomentumStrategy: overnight_recovery_top10 (US),
lowrisk_momentum_top15 and lowbeta_sharpe_mom_top20 (CN), top-N with
rank hysteresis, 10-day rebalance, weights drift between rebalances.
- trader: strategy_fields/strategy_bars/bar_session_weights; one signal
path (_signals_for_sessions) replaces generate_target_weights.
Live fixes
- CSI 300 constituents come from China Securities Index's file; the
Wikipedia table was 122 names off the real index.
- S&P 500 change log moved to "Historical components of the S&P 500".
- data_manager: tickers missing from a partial Yahoo batch are retried
alone before being marked unavailable (CEG, GEV, SNDK ... were dropped).
update() takes fields=[...] and stores high/low/volume panels.
- Whole-lot orders go to the nearest lot within cash (CN books held ~62%
cash); held names are resized only beyond RESIZE_BAND (10%), so books no
longer pay a ticket fee to trade daily drift.
Web backtests
- backtest_runner.py replaces the duplicated bridge/precompute code: PIT
membership in both markets (data/csi300_history.json), stock universe
limited to index members (ETFs and benchmarks in the shared panel were
pickable), and the book kept like the live trader (simulate_live_book:
signal timing, drift, order floor, resize band, fees on orders placed).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Tickers count as alive for 10 rows after their last bar, so a newest row
printed by a few early tickers is dropped until the rest arrive. The
benchmark-print session rule now applies only to the mixed US/HK ETF panel:
Yahoo's 510300.SS lags CN stocks by days and would stall the CN book.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Monthly/yearly returns chain from the previous period's close (the first
trading day of every period was dropped; up to ~9pp/yr error).
- With cash injections, metrics/drawdowns/periodic returns are time-weighted
on the no-injection curve; capitalFlows reports invested/profit separately.
- Benchmarks cover exactly the strategies' dates.
- CAGR uses calendar time, so gaps in live records do not inflate it.
- Backtests skip the per-trade fee for rebalances below the live minimum
order and keep a ruined portfolio at zero.
- live: exact strategy match, ineligible strategies hidden, currency,
startDate, same-window benchmark, stale-price fallback, equity anchored at
the initial capital.
- PIT membership falls back to the cached history when the Wikipedia change
log cannot be parsed (the table is no longer on the page).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
