import numpy as np import pandas as pd from strategies.base import StockStrategy, mask_scores class TrendFollowingStrategy(StockStrategy): """ Per-stock trend following with momentum ranking. Two filters applied: 1. Trend filter: only hold stocks trading above their own moving average (individual uptrend, not market-level timing) 2. Momentum rank: among trending stocks, pick the top_n by 6-month return This avoids the Multi-Factor problem of all-or-nothing market timing while still providing downside protection at the individual stock level. """ def __init__(self, ma_window: int = 150, momentum_period: int = 126, top_n: int = 20): self.ma_window = ma_window self.momentum_period = momentum_period self.top_n = top_n def generate_signals(self, data: pd.DataFrame, eligible: pd.DataFrame | None = None) -> pd.DataFrame: # Per-stock trend filter: price > MA ma = data.rolling(self.ma_window).mean() in_uptrend = data > ma # Momentum score among trending stocks momentum = data.pct_change(self.momentum_period, fill_method=None) # Mask out stocks not in uptrend momentum_filtered = momentum.where(in_uptrend, np.nan) # Rank and select top_n momentum_filtered = mask_scores(momentum_filtered, eligible) n_valid = momentum_filtered.notna().sum(axis=1) enough = n_valid >= 1 rank = mask_scores(momentum_filtered, eligible).rank(axis=1, ascending=False, na_option="bottom") effective_n = n_valid.clip(upper=self.top_n) top_mask = (rank <= effective_n.values.reshape(-1, 1)) & enough.values.reshape(-1, 1) # Ensure we only pick stocks that are actually in uptrend top_mask = top_mask & in_uptrend raw = top_mask.astype(float) row_sums = raw.sum(axis=1).replace(0, np.nan) signals = raw.div(row_sums, axis=0).fillna(0.0) warmup = max(self.ma_window, self.momentum_period) signals.iloc[:warmup] = 0.0 return signals.shift(1).fillna(0.0)