Files
quant-trading/strategies/mean_reversion.py
Gahow Wang 722cade974 fix: unify backtest execution and add forward validation candidates
Share point-in-time signals and a cash-funded order ledger across backtests and trading. Correct eligibility, missing-price fills, quality factors, regime inputs, warmup windows, and cash-injection accounting. Add reproducible registered-strategy comparisons and paired forward candidates with a 20% resize band.

Validation: 125 Python tests, 23 web tests, TypeScript/Vite build, 87 strategy causality checks, and real-data target/order/equity parity for 10 strategies.
2026-10-01 02:24:01 -07:00

58 lines
2.2 KiB
Python

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from strategies.base import StockStrategy, mask_scores
class MeanReversionStrategy(StockStrategy):
"""
Monthly "buy the dip" with momentum confirmation.
Among stocks with positive 12-month momentum, overweight those
that dipped most in the past month. Rebalances monthly to keep
turnover low. Combines long-term trend (avoid losers) with
short-term mean reversion (buy winners on sale).
"""
def __init__(self, mom_lookback: int = 252, dip_window: int = 21,
rebal_freq: int = 21, top_n: int = 20):
self.mom_lookback = mom_lookback
self.dip_window = dip_window
self.rebal_freq = rebal_freq
self.top_n = top_n
def generate_signals(self, data: pd.DataFrame, eligible: pd.DataFrame | None = None) -> pd.DataFrame:
long_mom = data.pct_change(self.mom_lookback, fill_method=None)
has_momentum = long_mom > 0
short_ret = data.pct_change(self.dip_window, fill_method=None)
# Among positive-momentum stocks, rank by biggest dip
scores = short_ret.where(has_momentum, np.nan)
# Rank: most negative = rank 1 (biggest dip)
rank = mask_scores(scores, eligible).rank(axis=1, ascending=True, na_option="bottom")
scores = mask_scores(scores, eligible)
n_valid = scores.notna().sum(axis=1)
effective_n = n_valid.clip(upper=self.top_n)
top_mask = rank <= effective_n.values.reshape(-1, 1)
top_mask = top_mask & has_momentum # ensure we only pick momentum stocks
raw = top_mask.astype(float)
row_sums = raw.sum(axis=1).replace(0, np.nan)
signals = raw.div(row_sums, axis=0).fillna(0.0)
warmup = self.mom_lookback + self.dip_window
# Only keep rebalance-day signals, forward-fill between them
rebal_mask = pd.Series(False, index=data.index)
rebal_indices = range(warmup, len(data), self.rebal_freq)
rebal_mask.iloc[list(rebal_indices)] = True
# Zero out non-rebalance days then forward-fill
signals[~rebal_mask] = np.nan
signals = signals.ffill().fillna(0.0)
signals.iloc[:warmup] = 0.0
return signals.shift(1).fillna(0.0)