1 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
0d983edfc0 research: individual stock swing, new frameworks, literature alpha, DCA
Four research directions beyond V7+VT36:

1. single_stock_swing: 20 famous stocks (Mag 7 + others), per-stock
   optimized swing trading. High-vol growth stocks (AMD Sharpe 1.55,
   TSLA 1.54) work best, but overfitting risk is extreme — universal
   params only TSLA is viable. Not competitive with V7.

2. v7_literature_alpha: 9 academic directions (VIX overlay, Kelly
   sizing, multi-MA, cross-asset, momentum acceleration, VIX mean-
   reversion, vol-adaptive PT, combined). V3's regime engine already
   implicitly captures most literature signals. MA130 marginally
   better than MA150 (+0.02 Sharpe, within noise).

3. new_frameworks_eval: volatility trading (SVXY risk-off) and
   calendar effects (turn-of-month). SVXY and V7 regime structurally
   conflict — SVXY crashes exactly when V7 goes risk-off.
   Turn-of-month has decent Sharpe (1.30) but only 28% annual.
   Nothing beats V7.

4. smart_dca_eval: fixed/VIX-scaled/MA-deviation/value-averaging/RSI
   DCA into SPY/QQQ/TQQQ/UPRO + V7 hybrids. Smart DCA barely beats
   fixed DCA. Any DCA hybrid dilutes V7's alpha. DCA only useful for
   new monthly contributions that can't lump-sum into V7.

Conclusion: V7+VT36 remains SOTA across all tested frameworks.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-23 00:45:44 +08:00