""" Enhanced Recovery Momentum Strategy. Improvements over base RecoveryMomentumStrategy: 1. Inverse-volatility weighting (allocate more to lower-vol winners → better risk-adjusted) 2. Monthly rebalancing (controls turnover) 3. Momentum filter gate: only pick stocks with positive 6-month momentum (avoids "dead cat bounces" — recovery without underlying trend) 4. Volatility regime scaling: reduce exposure when market vol is elevated """ import numpy as np import pandas as pd from strategies.base import Strategy class EnhancedRecoveryMomentumStrategy(Strategy): """ Recovery + momentum with inverse-vol weighting and regime awareness. """ def __init__( self, recovery_window: int = 63, mom_lookback: int = 252, mom_skip: int = 21, intermediate_mom: int = 126, vol_window: int = 60, rebal_freq: int = 21, top_n: int = 20, regime_scale: bool = True, ): self.recovery_window = recovery_window self.mom_lookback = mom_lookback self.mom_skip = mom_skip self.intermediate_mom = intermediate_mom self.vol_window = vol_window self.rebal_freq = rebal_freq self.top_n = top_n self.regime_scale = regime_scale def generate_signals(self, data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: # Factor 1: Recovery — price / rolling min recovery = data / data.rolling(self.recovery_window, min_periods=self.recovery_window).min() - 1 # Factor 2: 12-1 month momentum momentum = data.shift(self.mom_skip).pct_change(self.mom_lookback - self.mom_skip) # Factor 3: Intermediate momentum (6m) as a filter gate # Only consider stocks with positive intermediate trend intermediate = data.shift(self.mom_skip).pct_change(self.intermediate_mom - self.mom_skip) trend_gate = intermediate > 0 # Cross-sectional percentile ranks rec_rank = recovery.rank(axis=1, pct=True, na_option="keep") mom_rank = momentum.rank(axis=1, pct=True, na_option="keep") # Composite score (50/50), gated by intermediate trend composite = 0.5 * rec_rank + 0.5 * mom_rank composite = composite.where(trend_gate, np.nan) # Select top_n rank = composite.rank(axis=1, ascending=False, na_option="bottom") n_valid = composite.notna().sum(axis=1) enough = n_valid >= self.top_n top_mask = (rank <= self.top_n) & enough.values.reshape(-1, 1) # Inverse-vol weighting among selected stocks returns = data.pct_change() vol = returns.rolling(self.vol_window, min_periods=30).std().replace(0, np.nan) inv_vol = (1.0 / vol).where(top_mask, 0.0) row_sums = inv_vol.sum(axis=1).replace(0, np.nan) signals = inv_vol.div(row_sums, axis=0).fillna(0.0) # Regime scaling: reduce exposure when market vol is high if self.regime_scale: market_vol = vol.mean(axis=1) vol_median = market_vol.rolling(252, min_periods=126).median() vol_ratio = (vol_median / market_vol).clip(0.5, 1.2) signals = signals.mul(vol_ratio, axis=0) # Re-normalize: cap at 1.0 row_totals = signals.sum(axis=1) overflow = row_totals > 1.0 signals.loc[overflow] = signals.loc[overflow].div( row_totals[overflow], axis=0 ) # Monthly rebalance: keep only rebal-day signals, forward-fill warmup = max(self.mom_lookback, self.recovery_window, self.vol_window + 252) rebal_mask = pd.Series(False, index=data.index) rebal_indices = list(range(warmup, len(data), self.rebal_freq)) rebal_mask.iloc[rebal_indices] = True signals[~rebal_mask] = np.nan signals = signals.ffill().fillna(0.0) signals.iloc[:warmup] = 0.0 return signals.shift(1).fillna(0.0)