import numpy as np import pandas as pd from strategies.base import Strategy class DualMomentumStrategy(Strategy): """ Dual momentum with multi-timeframe confirmation. Unlike plain momentum (single 12-1m lookback), this requires agreement across THREE timeframes — short (1-3m), medium (3-6m), and long (6-12m). A stock must show positive returns on ALL three to qualify. This filters out stocks riding a single spike and favors sustained trends. Position count is variable: when few stocks pass all three filters, the strategy naturally goes to partial cash. """ def __init__(self, top_n: int = 20): self.top_n = top_n def generate_signals(self, data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: # Three timeframe returns (each skipping most recent 5 days) skip = 5 short_mom = data.shift(skip).pct_change(63 - skip) # ~3 month med_mom = data.shift(skip).pct_change(126 - skip) # ~6 month long_mom = data.shift(skip).pct_change(252 - skip) # ~12 month # All three must be positive (absolute momentum across timeframes) all_positive = (short_mom > 0) & (med_mom > 0) & (long_mom > 0) # Composite score: average percentile rank across timeframes short_rank = short_mom.rank(axis=1, pct=True, na_option="bottom") med_rank = med_mom.rank(axis=1, pct=True, na_option="bottom") long_rank = long_mom.rank(axis=1, pct=True, na_option="bottom") composite = (short_rank + med_rank + long_rank) / 3 # Only consider stocks passing absolute filter composite_filtered = composite.where(all_positive, np.nan) n_valid = composite_filtered.notna().sum(axis=1) enough = n_valid >= 1 rank = composite_filtered.rank(axis=1, ascending=False, na_option="bottom") effective_n = n_valid.clip(upper=self.top_n) top_mask = (rank <= effective_n.values.reshape(-1, 1)) & enough.values.reshape(-1, 1) top_mask = top_mask & all_positive raw = top_mask.astype(float) row_sums = raw.sum(axis=1).replace(0, np.nan) signals = raw.div(row_sums, axis=0).fillna(0.0) signals.iloc[:252] = 0.0 return signals.shift(1).fillna(0.0)