import numpy as np import pandas as pd from strategies.base import Strategy class MeanReversionStrategy(Strategy): """ Monthly "buy the dip" with momentum confirmation. Among stocks with positive 12-month momentum, overweight those that dipped most in the past month. Rebalances monthly to keep turnover low. Combines long-term trend (avoid losers) with short-term mean reversion (buy winners on sale). """ def __init__(self, mom_lookback: int = 252, dip_window: int = 21, rebal_freq: int = 21, top_n: int = 20): self.mom_lookback = mom_lookback self.dip_window = dip_window self.rebal_freq = rebal_freq self.top_n = top_n def generate_signals(self, data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: long_mom = data.pct_change(self.mom_lookback) has_momentum = long_mom > 0 short_ret = data.pct_change(self.dip_window) # Among positive-momentum stocks, rank by biggest dip scores = short_ret.where(has_momentum, np.nan) # Rank: most negative = rank 1 (biggest dip) rank = scores.rank(axis=1, ascending=True, na_option="bottom") n_valid = scores.notna().sum(axis=1) effective_n = n_valid.clip(upper=self.top_n) top_mask = rank <= effective_n.values.reshape(-1, 1) top_mask = top_mask & has_momentum # ensure we only pick momentum stocks raw = top_mask.astype(float) row_sums = raw.sum(axis=1).replace(0, np.nan) signals = raw.div(row_sums, axis=0).fillna(0.0) warmup = self.mom_lookback + self.dip_window # Only keep rebalance-day signals, forward-fill between them rebal_mask = pd.Series(False, index=data.index) rebal_indices = range(warmup, len(data), self.rebal_freq) rebal_mask.iloc[list(rebal_indices)] = True # Zero out non-rebalance days then forward-fill signals[~rebal_mask] = np.nan signals = signals.ffill().fillna(0.0) signals.iloc[:warmup] = 0.0 return signals.shift(1).fillna(0.0)