Commit Graph

7 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
9ddabee6ae Remove 'capped' references from MEETING.md and PAPER_OUTLINE.md prose
Companion to the figure cleanup: prose in §3.1 was still quoting
"capped 31.6% APC" as one of the failure-mode datapoints. Same reason
as the figures — capped is a workload manipulation, not a policy, so
it doesn't belong in the §3.1 routing-policy narrative.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-27 11:02:29 +08:00
1220da249c f2b: regenerate CDF from production trace (1.3M sessions on dash0)
Pulls 456 (rank%, cum%) sample points from the raw production trace at
dash0:/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/ali-trace/trace-glm5.1-formatted/051315-051317.jsonl,
cached locally so the figure is reproducible without ssh access. Sampled
anchors match the precomputed summary exactly:
  top 1% = 46.5%, top 5% = 66.5%, top 10% = 74.6%
plus newly readable points:
  top 25% = 87.5%, top 50% = 96.0%

Workload characterization is now consistent with the production
distribution rather than the small replay subset. Replay window CDF kept
as an overlay to show the same hockey-stick shape on the data §5 actually
uses.

- analysis/characterization/data/production_session_skew_cdf.json: cached
  sample points (29 KB), so the figure rebuilds locally
- scripts/plot_session_skew_cdf.py: now plots from the cache + replay raw
- MEETING.md / PAPER_OUTLINE.md: revert numbers to production trace,
  add top-25%/50% data points

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-27 10:41:53 +08:00
22c4aa58e4 f2b: replace top-1/5/10% bars with full CDF; align all docs to replay-trace numbers
The previous f2b_session_skew.png was a 3-bar chart (top 1/5/10%) computed
from the production trace summary (which is not present locally, only its
precomputed JSON). The new figure is a continuous CDF of cumulative
input-token mass vs session rank percentile, generated directly from the
replay trace traces/w600_r0.0015_st30.jsonl so any percentile is readable.

Headline numbers update accordingly:
  replay trace (n=274 sessions): top 1% = 24.3%, top 5% = 61.9%, top 10% = 75.8%
  production trace (n=1.3M):     top 1% = 46.5%, top 5% = 66.5%, top 10% = 74.6%

Both show extreme skew well above the y=x uniform reference; the replay
trace is less extreme at top-1% because n=274 makes that bucket only
~3 sessions. We standardize §2/§3 narrative on the replay-trace numbers
so motivation matches §5 evaluation; production numbers kept as a side
note for context.

- scripts/plot_session_skew_cdf.py: reproducible figure generator
- MEETING.md / PAPER_OUTLINE.md: update narrative + caption

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-27 10:37:22 +08:00
020a5c79a7 §3.3 reframe: hot pin failure is uniformly-slow workers, not max/median ratio
User pointed out the apparent paradox: in fig_b3_per_worker_ttft_p90, unified
has hotspot index 3.67 while sticky has 2.73, yet unified e2e p90 is roughly
half of sticky's. Resolution: hotspot index (max/median) is a *ratio* and
misleading on its own. Per-worker absolute TTFT p90:

  sticky : median 20.3s, max 55.4s -> system e2e p90 34.6s
  unified: median 10.3s, max 37.7s -> system e2e p90 18.0s

Mechanism: top 1% sessions own 46.5% input mass and there are more hot
sessions than instances (8), so sticky's hash binding gives *every* worker
its own hot session and the median worker is also slow. Unified's LMetric
fallback re-routes cold/new sessions away from hot affinity instances,
preserving 7/8 worker speed. System p90 is dominated by the majority of
requests landing on fast workers, hence the 2x e2e gap.

Changes:
- Replace §3.3 figure with figs/f4c_per_worker_ttft.png (per-worker bars)
  instead of figs/f4c_apc_vs_hotspot_tradeoff.png (the ratio scatter)
- §3.3 narrative in PAPER_OUTLINE.md and MEETING.md rewritten around
  absolute median + max + system e2e p90 instead of hotspot ratio
- Add a §3.3 sub-finding: "hot pin failure must be measured with
  per-worker absolute latency, not normalized ratio"
- Keep the scatter as supplementary for §5 multi-policy summary

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-27 10:10:23 +08:00
18f1bd4240 Update MEETING.md + PAPER_OUTLINE.md with connector_tax substrate validation
2026-05-27 trace-replay A/B/C (commit ef9e010) shows the kv_both substrate
is net positive on current codebase, not just neutral:
  - TTFT p90: 11.97s plain → 9.74s kv_both (−18.6%) → 7.58s with DR-fix (−36.6%)

This reverses the elastic_migration_v2 paper's +45% kv_both penalty claim
and removes the primary cause of the 4 prior migration reverts.

Reframes EAR Pillar 2 from "DEFERRED" to "PARTIAL" — substrate verified,
e2e strategy-layer validation (trigger thresholds + target selection in
the dispatch-coupling feedback loop) remains as the only open risk.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-27 09:17:31 +08:00
df0ee5a02b Use PNG for KV memory wall figure; switch outline to inline image embeds
- Convert figs/f4b_pdsep_kv_wall.pdf to PNG via pdftoppm @ 150 DPI so
  MEETING.md and PAPER_OUTLINE.md render the figure inline on GitHub /
  any standard markdown viewer (PDF !() embeds don't render).
- PAPER_OUTLINE.md F2, F4, F6: switch from backtick code references to
  proper ![]() image embeds so the doc is actually viewable as a deck.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-27 09:13:26 +08:00
0bb97c9dca Add EAR meeting pitch doc
Minimal one-page sell doc for advisor meeting. Leads with dispatch
coupling insight + 8x amplification number, then workload chars,
three baseline failure modes, EAR two-pillar design, progress/TODO/risk.

Uses the 8 figs already in figs/. Migration Pillar 2 explicitly marked
as design-complete-validation-pending (the 4 prior reverts + DR-fix
context).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-27 01:48:53 +08:00