d376d91fe1ea6955ba157dd617e4df51bc80c645
Real-time engine state is NOT the routing lever. Across 6 policies × es0/es1, real state reshuffles 44-76% of decisions but never beats the champion (unified+A+B, p90 7.62s). The effect's SIGN is set by reactivity: one-shot placement (sticky) HELPS -26%; per-request affinity-dominated is a wash; per-request pure-load (lmetric +17%, load_only +27%) HURTS via herding (stale shadow was a dampener). Feed verified fresh (median 25ms, <=92ms during prefills). Prior shadow-state results stand. ES_ABLATION_RESULTS.md has the table + mechanism; run_full_ablation.sh / fresh_sampler.py / cmp_es.py are the harness. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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