agentic-kvc/analysis/characterization/current_results/characterization_claim_matrix.md

Characterization Claim Matrix

Claim	Status	Supporting Data	Needed Next	Reviewer Risk
Batch 0 substrate audit is only partially complete for existing runs.	partially_supported	metrics.jsonl lacks actual dispatch/finish timestamps in current artifacts.	Add request dispatch and finish/error timestamps to future replayer/proxy metrics.	Cannot use these runs to prove online per-session sequentiality.
Batch 1 workload shape can be characterized from formatted traces and metrics.	supported_for_trace_shape	Full compact trace CPU summary in full_trace_summary.json: input p50/p90/p99 = 20k/87.9k/125.5k, output p50/p90/p99 = 80/811/6.6k, top 1% sessions hold 46.5% of input-token mass.	Add cache-hit joined records for actual reuse decomposition.	Actual cache reuse decomposition needs cached_tokens joined with hash_ids.
Static PD separation is worse than combined in existing 200-request GPU A/B.	supported_by_existing_artifact	outputs/gpu_ab_combined vs outputs/gpu_ab_pdsep metrics.summary.json.	Refresh with PD matrix, multiple seeds, cudagraph-enabled methodology.	Legacy run has no per-stage TTFT breakdown and no step-level KV occupancy.
Elastic transfer-based migration does not improve high-contention 500-request run.	supported_by_existing_artifact	outputs/contention_16s_ts10 vs outputs/contention_16s_elastic metrics.summary.json and gpu_util.csv.	Attribute whether failure is trigger quality, transfer overhead, or wrong load regime.	Existing metrics lack actual sequentiality proof and per-request transfer waterfall.
PD-colo prefill/decode interference is not yet directly proven by step-level data in this package.	not_yet_supported	No decode-step and prefill-overlap timestamp artifact found in summarized runs.	Run Batch 2 controlled same-worker/different-worker injection with step timestamps.	Cannot claim interference as causal without Batch 2.
Session hot-spot residual imbalance is suggested but not fully attributed.	partially_supported	gpu_util.csv shows per-GPU mean-util imbalance in existing runs.	Collect per-worker queue delay, session-to-worker map, and per-session token mass per worker.	GPU util imbalance alone is not enough to prove session hot-spot.
SRR is not measured by existing fixed-request runs.	not_yet_supported	No arrival-rate sweep artifacts found.	Implement Batch 4 Poisson session-arrival SRR sweep.	Latency-at-one-load cannot support sustainable throughput claim.