Add fidelity pilot shortlist replay

runs/fidelity-headroom/test_pilot_e2e.py

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from analyze_pilot_e2e import expanded_top_k, replay
+
+
+def candidate(
+    cell: str,
+    sim_score: float,
+    real_feasible: bool,
+    probability: float,
+) -> dict[str, object]:
+    return {
+        "cell": cell,
+        "level": "high",
+        "sim_throughput_req_s_per_gpu": sim_score,
+        "real_goodput_req_s_per_gpu": sim_score,
+        "real_feasible": real_feasible,
+        "setup_h20_hours": 0.1,
+        "full_trial_h20_hours": 0.05,
+        "prefix_h20_hours": 0.01,
+        "instrument_probability": probability,
+    }
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    candidates = [
+        candidate("a", 3.0, True, 0.5),
+        candidate("b", 2.0, False, 0.01),
+        candidate("c", 2.0, True, 0.99),
+    ]
+    shortlist = expanded_top_k(candidates, 2)
+    assert [item["cell"] for item in shortlist] == ["a", "b", "c"]
+    result = replay(
+        shortlist,
+        probability_key="instrument_probability",
+        oracle_goodput=3.0,
+        common_failure_h20_hours=0.02,
+    )
+    assert result["selected_cell"] == "a"
+    assert result["false_accept"] == 0
+    assert result["false_reject"] == 0
+    assert result["early_accept"] == 1
+    assert result["early_reject"] == 1
+    assert result["online_h20_hours"] > 0
+    print("fidelity pilot e2e: PASS")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()