Decompose good/bad selection split across frozen surfaces

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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# 实验 S0good/bad case 分裂的统一分解margin vs differential residual
> **状态:** 已完成2026-07-20含 S0b 方向化修正与一轮 strict review 修复)
>
> 用户指令:核心要务是分析为什么部分 case 下 Frontier work、部分不 work 的 system 根因;本 card 是该诊断 campaign 的第一个 slice仅使用 frozen artifacts零 GPU 成本。人工 review 由用户的直接指令("只有做好这个分析我们才能推进下一步")满足。
## Claim 与决策
- **Parent claim** ongoing.md H2——误差机制是 action-conditioned residual本实验把它细化为"分裂从哪来"。
- **现象(已冻结):** 同一 best-effort Frontier 栈上Q30/Q235 的 Trace-PD 与多数 PO 面 selection 近优,而 Fixed-PD 面 1458% regret失败 objective 随负载档切换Q30 低压 TPOT/E2E 全反、高压 TTFT 5658%A1 collective profile 修复了 Q235 Trace-PO p90 21.2%→0.3% 但对 Fixed-PD 33% 完全无效(本 card frozen-inputs/q235-ablation-a1
- **Competing hypotheses**
- **H-SCALE** 分裂完全由「config-differential residual vs 真机 decision margin」的关系解释good case 的 sim/real 比值跨 config 近似均匀乘性偏移argmin 不变bad case 的比值跨 config 分散且超过 margin。workload shape 本身不需要出现在解释里。
- **H-THRESH** 绝对 service-time 高估近似均匀但与离散机制MNS admission cap、MoE token-bucket、graph bucket交互后被转换为 config-differential 误差fixed uniform workload 把所有请求同步到同一 state 轨迹,使阈值交叉对整个 cell 相干生效trace 的长度/到达异质性把阈值效应摊平。
- **H-STATE** 失败由 simulator 闭环 batch state 分布漂移主导Q235sim decode batch 13.5 vs real 3.9 + B4→B5 profile cliff 正反馈);即使打破 workload 同步性,闭环漂移仍可翻转排序。
- 三者关系H-SCALE 是现象层必要条件H-THRESH/H-STATE 是 differential residual 的两种产生机制,可共存但可判别(见事前预测)。
- **事前预测:**
- H-SCALE 成立 ⟺ 对每个 case×objectivefailure 恰好发生在「top 邻域 log-ratio spread > log1p(真机相对 margin)」处(两侧同为 log-space 尺度),无反例。
- H-THRESH 独有bad case 的 differential 误差集中于阈值语义分量first-scheduling wait、bucket 跳变段),且 sim-only 反事实(去阈值/加 jitter恢复排序——Q30 高压 TTFT 的 admission 反事实已支持一例。
- H-STATE 独有:差异化误差在去掉阈值分量后仍在 execution 项内Q235 Fixed-PD 的 own-composition 20.07 vs exact-state +10.90 已支持一例)。
- **判定规则:** S0 只裁决 H-SCALE 与「分量定位」queue vs executionH-THRESH/H-STATE 的干预判别属 S1+sim-only 反事实)与 GPU 实验(需另行 review。若 H-SCALE 出现反例good case 有 spread>margin 仍选对,或 bad case spread<margin必须原样报告不得平滑
## Setup
- **输入全部 frozenruns/frontier-split-rootcause-v0/frozen-inputs/** q30-trace-pdgraph-piecewise comparison)、q30-fixed-hifixed-pd/fixed-po 高压面)、q30-expansion-lo低压 fixed-pd/fixed-po/trace-po)、q235-fourcase-a0q235-ablation-a1+provenance)、q235-state-diagq30-admission-diag来源 cpfs 路径与 SHA 见各目录内 manifest/launch 记录
- **计算 case×objective** per-config 比值 r_c=sim_c/real_cconfig-uniform scale=geomean(r_c)differential residual=log-ratio spread surface 与真机 top-3 邻域各一真机 relative marginbest 2nd-bestbest sim-winner 的真机值差failure flag=regret>5%H-SCALE 检验=failure ⟺ 邻域 spread>log1p(margin)review 修正:初版直接以 ln 差比较普通 relative margin尺度不一致修正后 70 行 verdict 不变)。
- **分量定位:** q30-admission-diag 提供 TTFT=first-scheduling wait+prefill execution 分解q235-state-diag 提供 own-composition vs exact-state contrast把这些已知分量证据合并进统一表。
- **交叉核对:** 重算的 regret 必须与各 frozen comparison.md 表一致(抽查 58.0%、33.0%、0.0%A0 vs A1 的 Q235 对比必须复现 trace-po p90 21.2%→0.3%、fixed-pd 四项不变。
## 预期产物与 review
- runs/frontier-split-rootcause-v0/analyze_split_decomposition.py只读 frozen-inputs确定性输出
- runs/frontier-split-rootcause-v0/results/decomposition.{json,md}:统一表,每行 case×objective列出 winner、regret、scale、spread全/邻域、margin、H-SCALE verdict、已知分量归因
- runs/frontier-split-rootcause-v0/results/margin-vs-residual.pngx=真机 marginy=邻域 differential residual点色=selection 对错H-SCALE 成立则对错点被对角线分离
- 人工验收:编排者亲自重跑脚本、抽查交叉核对数字、亲自查看渲染图
## 复现信息
- **Code** AITuner branch feature/sim自 HEAD 18c0b25 起worker/reviewer job-id 见下方「Review 与 provenance 补记」;脚本与产物随本 card 同一 commit 入库(含 frozen-inputs 本地拷贝)。
- **Environment** 本地 workstationCPU-onlypython3+matplotlib不访问远端。
- **已知 deviation** frozen-inputs 是 cpfs 原件的本地拷贝scp2026-07-20q30-expansion-lo 的低压 Fixed-PD 面已被高压面取代为 primary本分析将两档并列为独立观测不混合。
## 结果
- **观察事实:**
- 70 行14 个 case surface全部算出无数据缺口四组硬性交叉核对通过连续运行产物 SHA 一致。
- **H-SCALE 判为必要非充分**23 个 material failureregret>5%全部满足「top-3 邻域 log spread > log1p(margin)」,无一例失败发生在 residual 小于 margin 处;但另有 40/70 行同样满足该条件却均非 material failure其中仅 16 行 exact winner match其余 24 行是小 regret 的 winner 错位——14 个 MNS 精确 tie 与 10 个 strict reversal——无方向 spread 不携带决策信息。
- **S0b 方向化后的机制普查**23 个 material failure 的 winner-deciding pair 分布为 tp-axis 11、mixed 10、mns-axis 2Q235 A0/A1 Fixed-PD 的 8 个 TPOT/E2E failure 全为 tp-axisQ30 Fixed-PD 高低压为 tp/mixed仅有的 2 个 mns-axis failure 是 Q235 A0/A1 Trace-PD E2E p90regret 6.2%,勉强越过 5% 门槛。trace 面严格反序中 tp-axis 为 0q30 trace-pd 三轴全 0
- **A1 对照的轴分解**serving-matched collective profile 把 Q235 两个 PO 面的 tp-axis 反序从 4/4 清零trace-po p90 regret 21.2%→0.3%),但 Fixed-PD 仅 5→4、四项 regret 一位小数不动——prefill 路径的 TP-differential 误差源=collective profile可修decode 耦合的 TP-differential 误差另有来源。
- **MNS 不敏感缺陷**14 个 winner-label mismatch 是 simulator 逐位相等的 tie全部 mns-axis如 q30 fixed-po 的 MNS16↔32、q235 fixed-pd 的 MNS64↔128tie 计入后 MNS 边界误差 31 与 TP 严格反序 32 相当,但 MNS 侧 regret 小。
- **成功的鲁棒性**23 个 exact-winner success 中 17 个 margin-robustmargin≥1%6 个 fragile含 q30 trace-pd E2E p90 的 0.1% margin 与 q235 A1 fixed-po 四项)。
- **面级 scale 对照**prefill-only 面 geomean scale 0.961.37×(绝对预测基本准确),含 decode 的面 4.3130×——绝对误差灾难集中于 decode。
- **异常:** 无数据异常。strict reviewFAIL3 Major/1 Minor指出 H-SCALE 尺度混用log spread vs relative margin、tie 轴普查缺失、card 状态过期、Q235 一致性表述过强;全部修复,修复后 70 行 verdict 逐行不变。
- **含义:** 分裂的现象层解释是「margin 保护 + config-differential 误差」。机制层上21/23 个 material failure 由 TP/mixed pair 决定,且所有大 regret≥13%failure 都发生在含 decode 的面上:其中 Q235 Fixed-PD 有 state-drift 直接证据、Q30 高压 TTFT 有 admission 反事实证据,而 **Q30 低压 TPOT/E2E 反转的机制尚未诊断**S1 目标。「decode 耦合的 TP-differential 误差是主要载体」是当前最强归纳,不是对全部 failure 的已证机制归因2 个 mns-axis 边缘 failure6.2%在该归纳之外。trace 面成功伴随「TP 反序为零 + TP margin 宽」但「误差小」与「margin 宽」谁是主因仍未判——这正是 H-THRESH vs H-STATE 的判别缺口。轴标签与机制不一一对应Q30 admission 是 MNS 阈值机制但 deciding pair 为 tp/mixed因 TP 改变到达压力)。
- **Claim update** H2action-conditioned residualsupported 且被细化residual 的决策相关分量集中在 TP 轴、由 decode 状态耦合产生H-SCALE 降级为必要条件H-THRESH/H-STATE 保持 competing待 S1 判别。
- **下一步:** S1sim-only 反事实Q30 低压 Fixed-PD TPOT 反转的分量定位——这是唯一无机制解释的 material failurefixed workload jitter 判别 H-THRESH vs H-STATEGPU 判别实验(加压 Trace-PD、jittered Fixed-PD 真机面dash14另行出 card 供 review。
## Review 与 provenance 补记
- S0 workercodex `task-mrsn1s9c-z6ha0w`S0b`task-mrsnjzn6-k18x4n`resumestrict reviewerfresh 只读):`task-mrsocmlb-386btc`verdict FAIL修复轮`task-mrsop06n-pwxo0b`fresh writable。编排者独立验收脚本重跑、SHA 比对、两图目视检查。
- 产物 SHA修复后decomposition.json `81ea56b2…`、decomposition.md `4d19af54…`、margin-vs-residual.png `df2110c4…`、decision-pair-axis.png `2e787301…`

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> 2026-07-17写给未参与项目的读者可直接作为 presentation 讲稿。历史过程与复现信息见 `../runs/*/` 各 experiment card、`../docs/` 各 campaign 文档。
>
> **2026-07-19 update** Qwen235 Fixed-PD 的错误排序在 exact real state composition 下已经翻正,主因是 simulator closed-loop batch state而不是 collective。Qwen30 Fixed-PD 的 56--58% TTFT regret 也已定位Frontier 将 decode service time 高估 4--8×使 TP4 的 modeled concurrency 越过 MNS admission cap并产生虚假排队去掉该等待后 Frontier 与真机都判定 TP4 topology 更快。详见 [`experiments/qwen30-fixed-pd-ttft-admission-diagnosis-20260719.md`](experiments/qwen30-fixed-pd-ttft-admission-diagnosis-20260719.md)。
>
> **2026-07-20 update** 对全部 14 个 frozen case surface70 个 case×objective做了统一的 margin-vs-residual 分解与方向化机制普查([`experiments/frontier-split-rootcause-s0-20260720.md`](experiments/frontier-split-rootcause-s0-20260720.md))。三个要点:(1) 「residual 超过 margin」是失败的必要条件但远非充分——good/bad 分裂不能用无方向误差量解释;(2) 23 个 material failure 的 winner-deciding pair 中 21 个落在 TP 轴或 mixed其余 2 个是 6.2% regret 的边缘 mns-axis casetrace 面的 TP 反序为零A1 measured collective 把 Qwen235 两个 prefill-only 面的 TP 反序清零trace-PO p90 regret 21.2%→0.3%)却对 Fixed-PD 完全无效——prefill 路径的 TP 差异化误差源是 collective profile可修decode 耦合的 TP 差异化误差是当前所有 material failure 的载体;(3) 「Fixed-PD 失败因为高压」被否证:失败 Fixed-PD 的真机 in-flight14.05)低于全对的 Trace-PD38.69),且低压 Fixed-PD 同样失败、失败 objective 随负载切换。另有次要缺陷14 个 winner 错位来自 simulator 对 MNS 逐位不敏感的精确 tie。
## 一眼看懂
- **Topic / problem** LLM serving 的自动、低成本配置调优AITuner。当前主线问题用 simulator 给部署配置(并行度、批量上限等)排序,什么时候可信?需要补多少真机证据?算上这些成本还划算吗?
- **Central claim** simulator 要能帮助配置调优,必须先满足 scheduler transition 的 liveness/coverage再满足「配置相关残差小于真机 decision margin」前者决定 capacity 是否有定义,后者决定排序是否正确。(ID: C0)
- **当前结论:** 早先 35 个 trace stall 不是 Frontier scheduler liveness failureadapter 为不满 16-token 的 prefix block 错误生成了 cache identityFrontier 又没有 fail-fast。修正为完整 block、使用真实 graph buckets/KV blocks 和 `piecewise`/`KERNEL_ONLY` profile 后Qwen30 Trace-PD 的全部 12 个 cell 完成 129/129 requestFrontier 对 TTFT/TPOT/E2E 的 6 个 argmin 均与三次 fresh-server 真机一致;但绝对 latency 仍高估 4--511×。这只证明一个 MoE Trace-PD surface 的 selection fidelity不能外推到 prefill-only、fixed workload 或 235B。
- **最大 uncertainty / risk** 这个正确选择是否依赖 Trace-PD 的 queue/margin 偶然性Fixed-PD、Trace-P、Fixed-P 与大型 FP8 MoE 是否仍保留正确 config ranking。Q235 还缺少同栈 profile/runtime contract不能复用旧 vLLM 0.10.2 数据
- **下一项 critical action** 完成 Qwen30 其余三项 fixed/trace × PD/P surface。Fixed case 已先启动无请求 vLLM runtime-state preflightTrace-P 的 graph-aligned Frontier 12-cell CPU surface 正在运行。Q235 先做 vLLM 0.20 TP4/TP8 compatibility gate随后才允许新 profile
- **最大 uncertainty / risk** trace 面成功的原因未判——是 decode 耦合的 TP 差异化误差在 trace 状态分布下真的变小,还是只是被宽 TP margin 掩盖。这决定「sim 剪枝可信域」的边界怎么画,也决定加压 trace 是否会失败
- **下一项 critical action** 判别两个失败机制假设(离散阈值转换 vs 闭环 state 漂移):先做零 GPU 的 sim-only jitter 反事实与 Q30 低压 Fixed-PD TPOT 反转分量定位,再按结果决定 dash14 上的加压 Trace-PD / jittered Fixed-PD 真机判别面
- **停止条件:** T1 出 verdict 且成本账本建立后pass 且摊销论证成立 → 转向「sim 剪枝 + 真机终选」的 hybrid 机制设计fail → 转入失败机制归因;两条路都无 insight 增量 → 收敛写作。
## 核心概念
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- **Supporting** 235B prefill-only regret=0235B fixed-shape mixed 的 top set 全中30B 加 per-TP 校准后 regret 0.76%(但这是外部端到端 scale 给出的上界,不是原生 profile 保真度)。
- **Counterevidence** 修正 prefix trace contract 后的 TP2/MNS16 `none`-graph run 完成但 p50 TPOT 约 96 ms真机为约 14 ms然而该比较尚未对齐 real vLLM 的 `FULL_AND_PIECEWISE` graph path。
- **下一项 discriminative experiment** 补齐 `KERNEL_ONLY` graph family并以 `piecewise` 重跑相同 trace若 full surface 仍错graph omission 不再是可用解释。
- **Hypothesis机制active** 误差机制是 action-conditioned residual——执行状态的转移并行拓扑、kernel family、graph mode、batch 组成)使按算子 profile 的组合预测跨配置不可复合;残差大于 margin 时排序失败。(ID: H2supported)
- **Hypothesis机制active** 误差机制是 action-conditioned residual——执行状态的转移并行拓扑、kernel family、graph mode、batch 组成)使按算子 profile 的组合预测跨配置不可复合;残差大于 margin 时排序失败。(ID: H2supported,已细化)
- **Supporting** 三个 TP 档的端到端校准系数为 0.72/0.47/0.35残差确实随配置剧烈变化235B 的批量上限交互预测错误但被 2× margin 容忍30B prefill-only 在低负载近似对齐、饱和后按 TP 反向放大,最终 τ-b=1。
- **下一步:** 按 collective 通信 → batch 组成 → 调度器逐步轨迹的单变量顺序定位组合性失效点(对应 experiment card 中 A1/A2/A3 消融阶梯)
- **细化2026-07-20 统一普查):** 决策相关的残差分量集中在 TP 轴且由 decode 状态耦合产生——prefill-only 面的绝对 scale 仅 0.961.37× 且 measured collective 即可清除其 TP 反序,而含 decode 的面 scale 4.3130×、全部 material failure 都由 TP/mixed pair 决定。「residual>margin」只是必要条件失败还需要残差对准 winner-deciding pair
- **下一步:** 判别两个 competing 机制假设——离散阈值转换admission cap/profile cliff 把均匀高估转成差异化误差;打破 fixed workload 的同步性应恢复排序vs 闭环 state 漂移打破同步性也救不了。最便宜路径sim-only jitter 反事实 + Q30 低压 Fixed-PD TPOT 反转的分量定位(唯一无机制解释的 material failure
- **Subclaim** 成本论证只有在摊销前提下成立。(ID: C3)
- **Hypothesisactive** 每个 model×硬件×runtime 的一次性对齐成本,摊销到大配置面、频繁重调(引擎版本 churn 的频率证据见 claim map或禁止在线实验的场景后低于重复真机调优。(ID: H3untested——分母已实测分子未入账)
- **下一步:** 建 cost ledger见「下一步」
@@ -52,7 +55,7 @@
## Key evidence最多 3 条)
- **E1否证「prefill-only 是充分 easy condition」支持 H2** 30B BF16、去掉 decode/prefix/混合 batch 后,真机最优是 TP48 vs 7 req/s/GPUsimulator 却把 TP4 排最差6 vs 8top set 无交集regret 12.5%,τ-b=1。产物`../runs/frontier-phase-factorial-v0/results/final/`dash012.07 H20-GPUh
- **E2margin 可掩盖残差,支持 C0/H2** 235B FP8 的 prefill-only 与 fixed-shape mixed 都选对 top set但 simulator 漏掉并发上限max-num-seqs×批 token 上限max-num-batched-tokens的交互棋盘格并把 10/34 个真机 anchor 误判为不可行;真机头部 margin 有 2×残差被容忍。产物:`../runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v0/best_effort/fixed_cohort_evidence/``../runs/frontier-multicase-sufficiency-v1/results/t0-final/`
- **E2统一机制普查material failure 全部由 decode 耦合的 TP 差异化误差决定,支持 H2 细化):** 对 14 个 frozen surface、70 个 case×objective 的方向化分解显示23 个 material failure 中 21 个由 TP/mixed pair 决定(仅 2 个 6.2% 边缘 mns-axis case、trace 面 TP 反序为零measured collectiveA1把 Qwen235 两个 prefill-only 面的 TP 反序清零trace-PO p90 regret 21.2%→0.3%)但对 Fixed-PD 的 33% 无效「residual>margin」仅为失败的必要条件。产物:[`../runs/frontier-split-rootcause-v0/results/`](../runs/frontier-split-rootcause-v0/results/decomposition.md)(实验 card[`experiments/frontier-split-rootcause-s0-20260720.md`](experiments/frontier-split-rootcause-s0-20260720.md)
- **E3selection 与 calibration 分开):** 用完整 block projection、`piecewise` 和 graph-compatible KERNEL_ONLY profile 后Qwen30 Trace-PD 的 12/12 sim cells 完成6 个 mean/p90 latency objective 的 argmin 都与真机一致;但 sim/real latency ratio 仍为 4--511×。产物[`../runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/graph-piecewise-experiment-card.md`](../runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/graph-piecewise-experiment-card.md)。
## 下一步(最多 3 项)

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"e2e_p50_ms": 253.39288448911512,
"e2e_p90_ms": 1264.1466431938486,
"e2e_p95_ms": 1656.1837032209396,
"tpot_mean_ms": null,
"tpot_p50_ms": null,
"tpot_p90_ms": null,
"tpot_p95_ms": null,
"ttft_mean_ms": 487.42679595918156,
"ttft_p50_ms": 253.39288448911512,
"ttft_p90_ms": 1264.1466431938486,
"ttft_p95_ms": 1656.1837032209396
},
"tp8_ep8_mns64": {
"e2e_mean_ms": 487.3699604726311,
"e2e_p50_ms": 253.41330144894124,
"e2e_p90_ms": 1264.1466431938486,
"e2e_p95_ms": 1656.1837032209396,
"tpot_mean_ms": null,
"tpot_p50_ms": null,
"tpot_p90_ms": null,
"tpot_p95_ms": null,
"ttft_mean_ms": 487.3699604726311,
"ttft_p50_ms": 253.41330144894124,
"ttft_p90_ms": 1264.1466431938486,
"ttft_p95_ms": 1656.1837032209396
}
}
}
},
"real_root": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1",
"schema": "qwen235-v020-simulator-real-comparison-v1",
"sim_root": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-collective-profile-ablation-20260719-r1"
}

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
# Qwen235 vLLM 0.20 Frontier vs real
| case | metric | Frontier winner | real winner | match | regret | pair agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| fixed-pd | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | yes | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| fixed-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | no | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| fixed-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | no | 33.0% | 0.0% |
| fixed-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | no | 37.2% | 0.0% |
| fixed-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | no | 30.7% | 0.0% |
| fixed-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | no | 34.6% | 0.0% |
| fixed-po | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | yes | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| fixed-po | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | yes | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| fixed-po | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | yes | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| fixed-po | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | yes | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| trace-pd | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | yes | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| trace-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | yes | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| trace-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | yes | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| trace-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | yes | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| trace-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | no | 0.6% | 83.3% |
| trace-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | no | 6.2% | 83.3% |
| trace-po | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | no | 1.4% | 66.7% |
| trace-po | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | no | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| trace-po | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | no | 1.4% | 66.7% |
| trace-po | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | no | 0.3% | 100.0% |

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,952 @@
{
"cases": {
"fixed-pd": {
"comparison": {
"e2e_mean_ms": {
"informative_pairs": 4,
"pair_direction_agreement": 0.0,
"real_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.3067524317507717,
"sim_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"winner_match": false
},
"e2e_p90_ms": {
"informative_pairs": 4,
"pair_direction_agreement": 0.0,
"real_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.3456375801249614,
"sim_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"winner_match": false
},
"tpot_mean_ms": {
"informative_pairs": 4,
"pair_direction_agreement": 0.0,
"real_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.33025510615656906,
"sim_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"winner_match": false
},
"tpot_p90_ms": {
"informative_pairs": 4,
"pair_direction_agreement": 0.0,
"real_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.37228890038064755,
"sim_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"winner_match": false
},
"ttft_mean_ms": {
"informative_pairs": 4,
"pair_direction_agreement": 0.0,
"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.04237011756982145,
"sim_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns128",
"winner_match": false
},
"ttft_p90_ms": {
"informative_pairs": 4,
"pair_direction_agreement": 1.0,
"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns64",
"reversals": [],
"selected_real_regret": 0.002088257708717345,
"sim_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"winner_match": false
}
},
"real": {
"tp4_ep1_mns128": {
"e2e_mean_ms": 5729.31677040774,
"e2e_p90_ms": 5871.668232022785,
"request_samples": 387,
"tpot_mean_ms": 21.044200828709027,
"tpot_p90_ms": 21.59612646244247,
"trials": [
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp4_ep1_mns128/trial1/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp4_ep1_mns128/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp4_ep1_mns128/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 363.00995954954925,
"ttft_p90_ms": 369.09779999405146
},
"tp4_ep1_mns64": {
"e2e_mean_ms": 5769.497427325912,
"e2e_p90_ms": 5888.945628073998,
"request_samples": 387,
"tpot_mean_ms": 21.187139407074238,
"tpot_p90_ms": 21.653656356547977,
"trials": [
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp4_ep1_mns64/trial1/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp4_ep1_mns64/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp4_ep1_mns64/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 366.7432916322386,
"ttft_p90_ms": 369.99153497163206
},
"tp8_ep8_mns128": {
"e2e_mean_ms": 7486.7986220007915,
"e2e_p90_ms": 7901.13743103575,
"request_samples": 387,
"tpot_mean_ms": 27.994155607374484,
"tpot_p90_ms": 29.63612463562658,
"trials": [
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp8_ep8_mns128/trial1/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp8_ep8_mns128/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp8_ep8_mns128/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 348.25438050341427,
"ttft_p90_ms": 365.8816539682448
},
"tp8_ep8_mns64": {
"e2e_mean_ms": 7484.121415326708,
"e2e_p90_ms": 7908.651847974397,
"request_samples": 387,
"tpot_mean_ms": 27.978544004773987,
"tpot_p90_ms": 29.650389521346227,
"trials": [
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp8_ep8_mns64/trial1/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp8_ep8_mns64/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-pd/real/tp8_ep8_mns64/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 349.5577253122725,
"ttft_p90_ms": 365.11919100303203
}
},
"sim": {
"tp4_ep1_mns128": {
"e2e_mean_ms": 22734.095381397616,
"e2e_p50_ms": 23441.595611495926,
"e2e_p90_ms": 23484.306701188103,
"e2e_p95_ms": 23489.511452611594,
"tpot_mean_ms": 87.77349881741111,
"tpot_p50_ms": 90.6067822139126,
"tpot_p90_ms": 90.60678221391389,
"tpot_p95_ms": 90.60678221391389,
"ttft_mean_ms": 351.8531829577845,
"ttft_p50_ms": 351.44748294051453,
"ttft_p90_ms": 381.14669406792245,
"ttft_p95_ms": 385.3185272085611
},
"tp4_ep1_mns64": {
"e2e_mean_ms": 22734.095381397616,
"e2e_p50_ms": 23441.595611495926,
"e2e_p90_ms": 23484.306701188103,
"e2e_p95_ms": 23489.511452611594,
"tpot_mean_ms": 87.77349881741111,
"tpot_p50_ms": 90.6067822139126,
"tpot_p90_ms": 90.60678221391389,
"tpot_p95_ms": 90.60678221391389,
"ttft_mean_ms": 351.8531829577845,
"ttft_p50_ms": 351.44748294051453,
"ttft_p90_ms": 381.14669406792245,
"ttft_p95_ms": 385.3185272085611
},
"tp8_ep8_mns128": {
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"e2e_p50_ms": 17256.45308650381,
"e2e_p90_ms": 17280.553823012277,
"e2e_p95_ms": 17282.746891876577,
"tpot_mean_ms": 61.58781555229474,
"tpot_p50_ms": 66.32324900760649,
"tpot_p90_ms": 66.3246446898248,
"tpot_p95_ms": 66.3246446898248,
"ttft_mean_ms": 355.00684596404665,
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"ttft_p90_ms": 368.8582878708644,
"ttft_p95_ms": 370.503089520021
},
"tp8_ep8_mns64": {
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"e2e_p50_ms": 17256.45308650381,
"e2e_p90_ms": 17280.553823012277,
"e2e_p95_ms": 17282.746891876577,
"tpot_mean_ms": 61.58781555229474,
"tpot_p50_ms": 66.32324900760649,
"tpot_p90_ms": 66.3246446898248,
"tpot_p95_ms": 66.3246446898248,
"ttft_mean_ms": 355.00684596404665,
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}
}
},
"fixed-po": {
"comparison": {
"e2e_mean_ms": {
"informative_pairs": 4,
"pair_direction_agreement": 0.0,
"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.05873813644442971,
"sim_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns128",
"winner_match": false
},
"e2e_p90_ms": {
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"pair_direction_agreement": 0.0,
"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.016760786592592503,
"sim_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns128",
"winner_match": false
},
"ttft_mean_ms": {
"informative_pairs": 4,
"pair_direction_agreement": 0.0,
"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.058746722254088946,
"sim_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns128",
"winner_match": false
},
"ttft_p90_ms": {
"informative_pairs": 4,
"pair_direction_agreement": 0.0,
"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.016744441542810407,
"sim_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns128",
"winner_match": false
}
},
"real": {
"tp4_ep1_mns128": {
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"e2e_p90_ms": 346.7378600034863,
"request_samples": 387,
"tpot_mean_ms": null,
"tpot_p90_ms": null,
"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-po/real/tp4_ep1_mns128/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-po/real/tp4_ep1_mns128/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 345.35322551680514,
"ttft_p90_ms": 346.6896569589153
},
"tp4_ep1_mns64": {
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"e2e_p90_ms": 347.9283060878515,
"request_samples": 387,
"tpot_mean_ms": null,
"tpot_p90_ms": null,
"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-po/real/tp4_ep1_mns64/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-po/real/tp4_ep1_mns64/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 345.75379653310387,
"ttft_p90_ms": 347.88418107200414
},
"tp8_ep8_mns128": {
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"e2e_p90_ms": 341.0220619989559,
"request_samples": 387,
"tpot_mean_ms": null,
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"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-po/real/tp8_ep8_mns128/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-po/real/tp8_ep8_mns128/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 326.19059710668336,
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},
"tp8_ep8_mns64": {
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"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-po/real/tp8_ep8_mns64/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/fixed-po/real/tp8_ep8_mns64/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 326.846390089937,
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}
},
"sim": {
"tp4_ep1_mns128": {
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},
"tp4_ep1_mns64": {
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"e2e_p95_ms": 313.8487156962668,
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"ttft_mean_ms": 313.84871569626137,
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"ttft_p90_ms": 313.8487156962668,
"ttft_p95_ms": 313.8487156962668
},
"tp8_ep8_mns128": {
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"tp8_ep8_mns64": {
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"trace-pd": {
"comparison": {
"e2e_mean_ms": {
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"pair_direction_agreement": 0.8333333333333334,
"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns64",
"reversals": [
[
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]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.006154214824712234,
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},
"e2e_p90_ms": {
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"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns64",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp4_ep1_mns128"
],
[
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"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.062164651568153984,
"sim_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
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},
"tpot_mean_ms": {
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"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns64",
"reversals": [
[
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"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
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},
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"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns64",
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[
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]
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},
"ttft_mean_ms": {
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"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
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[
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"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
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]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.0,
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},
"ttft_p90_ms": {
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"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"reversals": [
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],
[
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]
],
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}
},
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"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-pd/real/tp4_ep1_mns128/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-pd/real/tp4_ep1_mns128/trial3/results/result.json"
],
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"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-pd/real/tp4_ep1_mns64/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-pd/real/tp4_ep1_mns64/trial3/results/result.json"
],
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"tp8_ep8_mns128": {
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"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-pd/real/tp8_ep8_mns128/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-pd/real/tp8_ep8_mns128/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 1141.539354895564,
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"tp8_ep8_mns64": {
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"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-pd/real/tp8_ep8_mns64/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-pd/real/tp8_ep8_mns64/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 37215.26084531421,
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"sim": {
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"tpot_p95_ms": 121.63558651348922,
"ttft_mean_ms": 59067.296381594686,
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"tp4_ep1_mns64": {
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"tp8_ep8_mns128": {
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"tp8_ep8_mns64": {
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"trace-po": {
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"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
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],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp8_ep8_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.07037121566091509,
"sim_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns64",
"winner_match": false
},
"e2e_p90_ms": {
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"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns64",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.21167227304868486,
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},
"ttft_mean_ms": {
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"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns128",
"reversals": [
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp4_ep1_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp8_ep8_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.07039370625209918,
"sim_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns64",
"winner_match": false
},
"ttft_p90_ms": {
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"real_winner": "tp8_ep8_mns64",
"reversals": [
[
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"tp8_ep8_mns64"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns64",
"tp8_ep8_mns128"
],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
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],
[
"tp4_ep1_mns128",
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]
],
"selected_real_regret": 0.2117895828808376,
"sim_winner": "tp4_ep1_mns128",
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}
},
"real": {
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"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-po/real/tp4_ep1_mns128/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-po/real/tp4_ep1_mns128/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 1083.561832460368,
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"tp4_ep1_mns64": {
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"e2e_p90_ms": 3162.989347940311,
"request_samples": 387,
"tpot_mean_ms": null,
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"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-po/real/tp4_ep1_mns64/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-po/real/tp4_ep1_mns64/trial3/results/result.json"
],
"ttft_mean_ms": 1101.9558890756384,
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"tp8_ep8_mns128": {
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"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-po/real/tp8_ep8_mns128/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-po/real/tp8_ep8_mns128/trial3/results/result.json"
],
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"tp8_ep8_mns64": {
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"trials": [
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"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-po/real/tp8_ep8_mns64/trial2/results/result.json",
"/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen235-v020-fourcase-20260719-r1/real/trace-po/real/tp8_ep8_mns64/trial3/results/result.json"
],
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},
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"tp4_ep1_mns64": {
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"tp8_ep8_mns64": {
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}
}
}
},
"schema": "qwen235-v020-simulator-real-comparison-v1"
}

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
# Qwen235 vLLM 0.20 Frontier vs real
| case | metric | Frontier winner | real winner | match | regret | pair agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| fixed-pd | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | no | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| fixed-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | no | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| fixed-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | no | 33.0% | 0.0% |
| fixed-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | no | 37.2% | 0.0% |
| fixed-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | no | 30.7% | 0.0% |
| fixed-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | no | 34.6% | 0.0% |
| fixed-po | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | no | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| fixed-po | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | no | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| fixed-po | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | no | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| fixed-po | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | no | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| trace-pd | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | yes | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| trace-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | yes | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| trace-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | yes | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| trace-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | yes | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| trace-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | no | 0.6% | 83.3% |
| trace-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | no | 6.2% | 66.7% |
| trace-po | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | no | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| trace-po | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | no | 21.2% | 0.0% |
| trace-po | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | no | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| trace-po | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | no | 21.2% | 0.0% |

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# Qwen235 Fixed-PD state diagnosis
**Verdict:** Exact real state composition flips Frontier to the correct TP4 winner; the ranking error is caused by closed-loop state/composition mismatch, not a conditional stage reversal.
| Config | Real Running proxy mean | Sim decode batch mean | Proxy coverage |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| tp4_ep1_mns64 | 4.667 | 13.537 | 100.0% |
| tp8_ep8_mns64 | 12.238 | 18.938 | 100.0% |
| Config | Real exact decode batch mean | Real token-weighted iteration ms | Matched simulator ms | Exact coverage |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| tp4_ep1_mns64 | 3.890 | 18.4710 | 34.2575 | 100.0% |
| tp8_ep8_mns64 | 10.921 | 27.5887 | 45.1603 | 100.0% |
## Frontier internal component contrast over its own executed composition
Decode-token-weighted over both pure-decode and mixed prefill/decode steps.
| Component | TP8 - TP4 (ms/decoded token step) |
|---|---:|
| moe_compute | -32.4544 |
| total | -20.0663 |
| attention | -7.4619 |
| tp_dp_communication | -6.5711 |
| ep_communication | +6.2354 |
| moe_routing | -0.2862 |
| dense_mlp_compute | -0.1231 |
| pipeline_communication | +0.0000 |
| runtime_overhead | +0.0000 |
## Frontier component contrast at exact real token composition
Positive means TP8 slower; negative means Frontier gives TP8 an advantage.
| Component | TP8 - TP4 (ms/step) |
|---|---:|
| total | +10.9028 |
| ep_communication | +6.5355 |
| tp_dp_communication | -6.4718 |
| attention | -2.1304 |
| moe_compute | -1.9774 |
| moe_routing | +0.1384 |
| dense_mlp_compute | -0.0308 |
| pipeline_communication | +0.0000 |
| runtime_overhead | +0.0000 |
## Interpretation boundary
- Real observed TPOT contrast: +6.9500 ms/token.
- Real exact-iteration contrast: +9.1177 ms/decode-token-weighted step.
- vLLM 10-second Running is active requests, not per-iteration decode batch; context lengths and graph buckets are unavailable in frozen logs.
- Frontier state outputs have no direct graph bucket/padding/launch-overhead field; graph effects remain folded into predictors.
- For TP8 shared-domain sync, total is ledger stage_end-start (critical path); op categories are serialized work estimates and are not additive because overlap and lane-summed wait diagnostics are represented separately.
- Component deltas identify where Frontier creates its own TP8 advantage; without real per-stage measurements they are not yet root-cause proof.

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# Qwen235 Fixed-PD state diagnosis
**Verdict:** State-composition mismatch is insufficient: after reweighting Frontier to measured real decode composition, it still predicts TP8 faster.
| Config | Real Running proxy mean | Sim decode batch mean | Proxy coverage |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| tp4_ep1_mns64 | 4.667 | 13.537 | 100.0% |
| tp8_ep8_mns64 | 12.238 | 18.938 | 100.0% |
## Frontier internal component contrast over its own executed composition
Decode-token-weighted over both pure-decode and mixed prefill/decode steps.
| Component | TP8 - TP4 (ms/decoded token step) |
|---|---:|
| moe_compute | -32.4544 |
| total | -20.0663 |
| attention | -7.4619 |
| tp_dp_communication | -6.5711 |
| ep_communication | +6.2354 |
| moe_routing | -0.2862 |
| dense_mlp_compute | -0.1231 |
| pipeline_communication | +0.0000 |
| runtime_overhead | +0.0000 |
## Frontier internal component contrast at real Running proxy
Positive means TP8 slower; negative means Frontier gives TP8 an advantage.
| Component | TP8 - TP4 (ms/step) |
|---|---:|
| moe_compute | -16.0581 |
| total | -8.5517 |
| ep_communication | +6.8248 |
| tp_dp_communication | -5.4010 |
| moe_routing | +0.3109 |
| attention | -0.2407 |
| dense_mlp_compute | +0.0018 |
| pipeline_communication | +0.0000 |
| runtime_overhead | +0.0000 |
## Interpretation boundary
- Real observed TPOT contrast: +6.9500 ms/token.
- vLLM 10-second Running is active requests, not per-iteration decode batch; context lengths and graph buckets are unavailable in frozen logs.
- Frontier state outputs have no direct graph bucket/padding/launch-overhead field; graph effects remain folded into predictors.
- For TP8 shared-domain sync, total is ledger stage_end-start (critical path); op categories are serialized work estimates and are not additive because overlap and lane-summed wait diagnostics are represented separately.
- Component deltas identify where Frontier creates its own TP8 advantage; without real per-stage measurements they are not yet root-cause proof.

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# Qwen235 Fixed-PD state diagnosis
**Verdict:** Active-batch-count mismatch alone is insufficient: after exact reweighting to each config's real Running histogram, Frontier still predicts TP8 faster.
| Config | Real Running proxy mean | Sim decode batch mean | Proxy coverage |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| tp4_ep1_mns64 | 4.667 | 13.537 | 100.0% |
| tp8_ep8_mns64 | 12.238 | 18.938 | 100.0% |
## Frontier internal component contrast over its own executed composition
Decode-token-weighted over both pure-decode and mixed prefill/decode steps.
| Component | TP8 - TP4 (ms/decoded token step) |
|---|---:|
| total | -73.6733 |
| moe_compute | -45.2710 |
| attention | -13.6950 |
| tp_dp_communication | -12.7244 |
| moe_routing | -1.7759 |
| dense_mlp_compute | -0.2890 |
| ep_communication | +0.0821 |
| pipeline_communication | +0.0000 |
| runtime_overhead | +0.0000 |
## Frontier internal component contrast at real Running proxy
Positive means TP8 slower; negative means Frontier gives TP8 an advantage.
| Component | TP8 - TP4 (ms/step) |
|---|---:|
| total | -46.0760 |
| moe_compute | -26.3387 |
| tp_dp_communication | -12.1532 |
| attention | -6.2393 |
| moe_routing | -1.2405 |
| dense_mlp_compute | -0.1769 |
| ep_communication | +0.0726 |
| pipeline_communication | +0.0000 |
| runtime_overhead | +0.0000 |
## Interpretation boundary
- Real observed TPOT contrast: +6.9500 ms/token.
- vLLM 10-second Running is active requests, not per-iteration decode batch; context lengths and graph buckets are unavailable in frozen logs.
- Frontier ledger exposes additive execution components but no direct graph bucket/padding/launch-overhead field; graph effects remain folded into predictors.
- Component deltas identify where Frontier creates its own TP8 advantage; without real per-stage measurements they are not yet root-cause proof.

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{
"boundary": "This identifies where the selection error is created, but the frozen real logs do not attribute service-time overprediction to one operator.",
"cells": {
"tp2_mns64": {
"arrival_rate_requests_per_s": 2.25,
"mns": 64,
"real": {
"e2e_ms": 3354.8816545874283,
"periodic_queue": {
"running_max": 10,
"running_mean": 7.257142857142857,
"samples": 35,
"waiting_max": 0,
"waiting_mean": 0.0
},
"required_slots_upper_bound": 7.548483722821714,
"slot_margin_lower_bound": 56.451516277178285,
"tpot_ms": 12.393283087182931,
"ttft_ms": 194.56193759030603
},
"simulator": {
"first_scheduling_delay_ms": 38.22329108338011,
"queue_free_ttft_ms": 191.02937373774816,
"request_execution_ms": 25761.91467886552,
"required_slots": 57.96430802744742,
"slot_margin": 6.035691972552577,
"tpot_ms": 100.27798158873513,
"ttft_ms": 229.2526648211283,
"ttft_queue_fraction": 0.16672997503956338
},
"tp": 2,
"tpot_overprediction_ratio": 8.091316956395687
},
"tp4_mns16": {
"arrival_rate_requests_per_s": 4.5,
"mns": 16,
"real": {
"e2e_ms": 3252.7993474094965,
"periodic_queue": {
"running_max": 16,
"running_mean": 15.166666666666666,
"samples": 18,
"waiting_max": 0,
"waiting_mean": 0.0
},
"required_slots_upper_bound": 14.637597063342735,
"slot_margin_lower_bound": 1.362402936657265,
"tpot_ms": 12.267737219892378,
"ttft_ms": 124.49453797538061
},
"simulator": {
"first_scheduling_delay_ms": 64906.25631809643,
"queue_free_ttft_ms": 134.74066995065758,
"request_execution_ms": 12108.627705569606,
"required_slots": 54.488824675063235,
"slot_margin": -38.488824675063235,
"tpot_ms": 46.95641974752248,
"ttft_ms": 65040.99698804708,
"ttft_queue_fraction": 0.9979283732385681
},
"tp": 4,
"tpot_overprediction_ratio": 3.8276349505907024
},
"tp4_mns32": {
"arrival_rate_requests_per_s": 4.5,
"mns": 32,
"real": {
"e2e_ms": 3227.015463910283,
"periodic_queue": {
"running_max": 16,
"running_mean": 14.944444444444445,
"samples": 18,
"waiting_max": 0,
"waiting_mean": 0.0
},
"required_slots_upper_bound": 14.521569587596273,
"slot_margin_lower_bound": 17.478430412403725,
"tpot_ms": 12.171863019540417,
"ttft_ms": 123.15859724408143
},
"simulator": {
"first_scheduling_delay_ms": 27180.676177927482,
"queue_free_ttft_ms": 135.62147333612225,
"request_execution_ms": 14643.080360640608,
"required_slots": 65.89386162288272,
"slot_margin": -33.893861622882724,
"tpot_ms": 56.89199563649036,
"ttft_ms": 27316.2976512636,
"ttft_queue_fraction": 0.9950351444010626
},
"tp": 4,
"tpot_overprediction_ratio": 4.6740581573385525
},
"tp4_mns64": {
"arrival_rate_requests_per_s": 4.5,
"mns": 64,
"real": {
"e2e_ms": 3258.202659738964,
"periodic_queue": {
"running_max": 17,
"running_mean": 14.833333333333334,
"samples": 18,
"waiting_max": 0,
"waiting_mean": 0.0
},
"required_slots_upper_bound": 14.661911968825338,
"slot_margin_lower_bound": 49.338088031174664,
"tpot_ms": 12.29409478300949,
"ttft_ms": 123.17715882596677
},
"simulator": {
"first_scheduling_delay_ms": 6367.273779218055,
"queue_free_ttft_ms": 136.7304324624105,
"request_execution_ms": 17736.957363112386,
"required_slots": 79.81630813400574,
"slot_margin": -15.816308134005737,
"tpot_ms": 69.02049776725552,
"ttft_ms": 6504.004211680465,
"ttft_queue_fraction": 0.9789774993969319
},
"tp": 4,
"tpot_overprediction_ratio": 5.614117914776633
}
},
"contrasts": {
"observed_sim_ttft_tp4_minus_tp2_ms": 27087.044986442474,
"queue_free_sim_ttft_tp4_minus_tp2_ms": -55.40790040162591,
"real_ttft_tp4_minus_tp2_ms": -71.4033403462246
},
"schema": "qwen30-fixed-pd-ttft-admission-diagnosis-v1",
"selection": {
"agreement": 0.5909090909090909,
"concordant_pairs": 39,
"discordant_pairs": 27,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns32",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.5797674051508896,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp2_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": false
},
"status": "PASS",
"verdict": "Frontier overpredicts decode service time, so TP4's higher global arrival rate crosses the MNS admission cap only in simulation. The resulting first-scheduling queue reverses the TP topology ranking; without that queue Frontier itself predicts TP4 faster than TP2, matching real hardware.",
"workload": "Qwen3-30B Fixed-PD 4096->256 at 1.125 req/s/GPU"
}

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# Qwen30 Fixed-PD TTFT admission diagnosis
**Verdict:** Frontier overpredicts decode service time, so TP4's higher global arrival rate crosses the MNS admission cap only in simulation. The resulting first-scheduling queue reverses the TP topology ranking; without that queue Frontier itself predicts TP4 faster than TP2, matching real hardware.
| Config | Sim TPOT / real | Sim required slots / MNS | Real slots upper bound / MNS | Sim first-schedule wait | Real waiting max |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| tp2_mns64 | 8.09x | 58.0/64 | 7.5/64 | 38.2 ms | 0 |
| tp4_mns16 | 3.83x | 54.5/16 | 14.6/16 | 64906.3 ms | 0 |
| tp4_mns32 | 4.67x | 65.9/32 | 14.5/32 | 27180.7 ms | 0 |
| tp4_mns64 | 5.61x | 79.8/64 | 14.7/64 | 6367.3 ms | 0 |
## TP4/MNS32 minus TP2/MNS64 TTFT
- Observed Frontier: +27087.0 ms.
- Frontier without first-scheduling queue: -55.4 ms.
- Real hardware: -71.4 ms.
**Boundary:** This identifies where the selection error is created, but the frozen real logs do not attribute service-time overprediction to one operator.

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Q30_ANALYSIS_ECHO source_real=/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/real-r6 source_sim=/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim cases=trace-po,fixed-pd,fixed-po requests=129 configs=12 trials=3 metrics=mean,p90(TTFT,TPOT-if-OSL-gt-1,E2E) gpu_cost=0 output=/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/analysis-r6
Q30_ANALYSIS_COMPLETE

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{
"applicable_metrics": [
"ttft_ms",
"tpot_ms",
"e2e_ms"
],
"cells": {
"tp1_mns16": {
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"p90": 2624.2011811379484
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"tpot_ms": {
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"p90": 19.3506398865253
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp1_mns16/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp1_mns32": {
"metrics": {
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"mean": 2624.2011811364387,
"p90": 2624.2011811379484
},
"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 19.350639886513438,
"p90": 19.3506398865253
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp1_mns32/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp1_mns64": {
"metrics": {
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"p90": 2624.2011811379484
},
"tpot_ms": {
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"p90": 19.3506398865253
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp1_mns64/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp1_mns8": {
"metrics": {
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"mean": 2624.2011811364387,
"p90": 2624.2011811379484
},
"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 19.350639886513438,
"p90": 19.3506398865253
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp1_mns8/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp2_mns16": {
"metrics": {
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"p90": 2817.9486849812747
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"tpot_ms": {
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"p90": 21.09350467849898
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"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 133.53853570813533,
"p90": 142.1523942165379
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp2_mns16/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp2_mns32": {
"metrics": {
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"p90": 2817.9486849812747
},
"tpot_ms": {
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"p90": 21.09350467849898
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 133.53853570813533,
"p90": 142.1523942165379
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp2_mns32/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp2_mns64": {
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"p90": 2817.9486849812747
},
"tpot_ms": {
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"p90": 21.09350467849898
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"ttft_ms": {
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"p90": 142.1523942165379
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp2_mns64/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp2_mns8": {
"metrics": {
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"mean": 2808.3844446026824,
"p90": 2817.9486849812747
},
"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 21.06177881019329,
"p90": 21.09350467849898
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 133.53853570813533,
"p90": 142.1523942165379
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp2_mns8/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns16": {
"metrics": {
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"tpot_ms": {
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"p90": 28.949734665706984
},
"ttft_ms": {
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"p90": 118.03470639992497
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp4_mns16/tp4/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns32": {
"metrics": {
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"p90": 3794.6349827560653
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"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 28.70502970984996,
"p90": 28.949734665706984
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"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 107.14572231615826,
"p90": 118.03470639992497
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp4_mns32/tp4/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns64": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 3752.684495467103,
"p90": 3794.6349827560653
},
"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 28.70502970984996,
"p90": 28.949734665706984
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 107.14572231615826,
"p90": 118.03470639992497
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp4_mns64/tp4/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns8": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 3752.684495467103,
"p90": 3794.6349827560653
},
"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 28.70502970984996,
"p90": 28.949734665706984
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 107.14572231615826,
"p90": 118.03470639992497
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp4_mns8/tp4/result.json"
}
},
"prefill_only": false,
"real_audit": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/analysis-r6/fixed-pd-real-audit.json",
"schema": "qwen30-latency-case-frontier-real-comparison-v1",
"selection": {
"e2e_ms:mean": {
"agreement": 0.0,
"concordant_pairs": 0,
"discordant_pairs": 48,
"informative_pairs": 48,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns32",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.26921939465653383,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp1_mns16",
"tied_pairs": 18,
"winner_match": false
},
"e2e_ms:p90": {
"agreement": 0.0,
"concordant_pairs": 0,
"discordant_pairs": 48,
"informative_pairs": 48,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.25730483004000526,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp1_mns16",
"tied_pairs": 18,
"winner_match": false
},
"tpot_ms:mean": {
"agreement": 0.0,
"concordant_pairs": 0,
"discordant_pairs": 48,
"informative_pairs": 48,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns32",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.13962124906187545,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp1_mns16",
"tied_pairs": 18,
"winner_match": false
},
"tpot_ms:p90": {
"agreement": 0.0,
"concordant_pairs": 0,
"discordant_pairs": 48,
"informative_pairs": 48,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.13357103696654363,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp1_mns16",
"tied_pairs": 18,
"winner_match": false
},
"ttft_ms:mean": {
"agreement": 1.0,
"concordant_pairs": 48,
"discordant_pairs": 0,
"informative_pairs": 48,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns16",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.0,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns16",
"tied_pairs": 18,
"winner_match": true
},
"ttft_ms:p90": {
"agreement": 1.0,
"concordant_pairs": 48,
"discordant_pairs": 0,
"informative_pairs": 48,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns16"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns16",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.0,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns16",
"tied_pairs": 18,
"winner_match": true
}
},
"sim_root": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-pd"
}

View File

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# Qwen30 Frontier vs real latency selection
| Objective | Frontier | Real | Match | Regret | Pairwise |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| ttft_ms:mean | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns16 | yes | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| ttft_ms:p90 | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns16 | yes | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| tpot_ms:mean | tp1_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | no | 14.0% | 0.0% |
| tpot_ms:p90 | tp1_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | no | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| e2e_ms:mean | tp1_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | no | 26.9% | 0.0% |
| e2e_ms:p90 | tp1_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | no | 25.7% | 0.0% |

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{"e2e_ms:mean": {"agreement": 0.0, "concordant_pairs": 0, "discordant_pairs": 48, "informative_pairs": 48, "real_ranking": ["tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns64", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8"], "real_winner": "tp4_mns32", "selected_config_real_regret": 0.26921939465653383, "sim_ranking": ["tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns8", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns8", "tp4_mns16", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns8"], "sim_winner": "tp1_mns16", "tied_pairs": 18, "winner_match": false}, "e2e_ms:p90": {"agreement": 0.0, "concordant_pairs": 0, "discordant_pairs": 48, "informative_pairs": 48, "real_ranking": ["tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns64", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8"], "real_winner": "tp4_mns8", "selected_config_real_regret": 0.25730483004000526, "sim_ranking": ["tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns8", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns8", "tp4_mns16", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns8"], "sim_winner": "tp1_mns16", "tied_pairs": 18, "winner_match": false}, "tpot_ms:mean": {"agreement": 0.0, "concordant_pairs": 0, "discordant_pairs": 48, "informative_pairs": 48, "real_ranking": ["tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns64", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns8"], "real_winner": "tp4_mns32", "selected_config_real_regret": 0.13962124906187545, "sim_ranking": ["tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns8", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns8", "tp4_mns16", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns8"], "sim_winner": "tp1_mns16", "tied_pairs": 18, "winner_match": false}, "tpot_ms:p90": {"agreement": 0.0, "concordant_pairs": 0, "discordant_pairs": 48, "informative_pairs": 48, "real_ranking": ["tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns64", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8"], "real_winner": "tp4_mns8", "selected_config_real_regret": 0.13357103696654363, "sim_ranking": ["tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns8", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns8", "tp4_mns16", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns8"], "sim_winner": "tp1_mns16", "tied_pairs": 18, "winner_match": false}, "ttft_ms:mean": {"agreement": 1.0, "concordant_pairs": 48, "discordant_pairs": 0, "informative_pairs": 48, "real_ranking": ["tp4_mns16", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns8", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8", "tp1_mns64"], "real_winner": "tp4_mns16", "selected_config_real_regret": 0.0, "sim_ranking": ["tp4_mns16", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns8", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns8", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns8"], "sim_winner": "tp4_mns16", "tied_pairs": 18, "winner_match": true}, "ttft_ms:p90": {"agreement": 1.0, "concordant_pairs": 48, "discordant_pairs": 0, "informative_pairs": 48, "real_ranking": ["tp4_mns16", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns32", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns16"], "real_winner": "tp4_mns16", "selected_config_real_regret": 0.0, "sim_ranking": ["tp4_mns16", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns8", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns8", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns8"], "sim_winner": "tp4_mns16", "tied_pairs": 18, "winner_match": true}}

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# Qwen30 real latency case audit
Prefill-only: `False`.
| Objective | Real winner | Value (ms) |
|---|---|---:|
| ttft_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns16 | 63.04 |
| ttft_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns16 | 66.42 |
| tpot_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns32 | 4.25 |
| tpot_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 | 4.27 |
| e2e_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns32 | 604.41 |
| e2e_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 | 610.01 |

View File

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{"e2e_ms:pooled_mean_ms": {"ranking": ["tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns64", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8"], "winner": "tp4_mns32", "winner_value_ms": 604.4058500071964}, "e2e_ms:pooled_p90_ms": {"ranking": ["tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns64", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8"], "winner": "tp4_mns8", "winner_value_ms": 610.0081680342555}, "tpot_ms:pooled_mean_ms": {"ranking": ["tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns64", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns8"], "winner": "tp4_mns32", "winner_value_ms": 4.254808547439789}, "tpot_ms:pooled_p90_ms": {"ranking": ["tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns64", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8"], "winner": "tp4_mns8", "winner_value_ms": 4.268226101921182}, "ttft_ms:pooled_mean_ms": {"ranking": ["tp4_mns16", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns8", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8", "tp1_mns64"], "winner": "tp4_mns16", "winner_value_ms": 63.03574686938565}, "ttft_ms:pooled_p90_ms": {"ranking": ["tp4_mns16", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns32", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns16"], "winner": "tp4_mns16", "winner_value_ms": 66.4233659626916}}

View File

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{
"applicable_metrics": [
"ttft_ms",
"e2e_ms"
],
"cells": {
"tp1_mns16": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp1_mns16/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp1_mns32": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp1_mns32/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp1_mns64": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp1_mns64/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp1_mns8": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 166.66991554923203,
"p90": 166.6699155492779
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp1_mns8/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp2_mns16": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 118.55592059231998,
"p90": 118.55592059232833
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 118.55592059231998,
"p90": 118.55592059232833
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp2_mns16/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp2_mns32": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 118.55592059231998,
"p90": 118.55592059232833
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 118.55592059231998,
"p90": 118.55592059232833
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp2_mns32/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp2_mns64": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 118.55592059231998,
"p90": 118.55592059232833
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 118.55592059231998,
"p90": 118.55592059232833
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp2_mns64/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp2_mns8": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 118.55592059231998,
"p90": 118.55592059232833
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 118.55592059231998,
"p90": 118.55592059232833
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp2_mns8/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns16": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 86.52545838364681,
"p90": 86.52545838364745
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 86.52545838364681,
"p90": 86.52545838364745
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp4_mns16/tp4/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns32": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 86.52545838364681,
"p90": 86.52545838364745
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 86.52545838364681,
"p90": 86.52545838364745
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp4_mns32/tp4/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns64": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 86.52545838364681,
"p90": 86.52545838364745
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 86.52545838364681,
"p90": 86.52545838364745
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp4_mns64/tp4/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns8": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 86.52545838364681,
"p90": 86.52545838364745
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 86.52545838364681,
"p90": 86.52545838364745
}
},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp4_mns8/tp4/result.json"
}
},
"prefill_only": true,
"real_audit": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/analysis-r6/fixed-po-real-audit.json",
"schema": "qwen30-latency-case-frontier-real-comparison-v1",
"selection": {
"e2e_ms:mean": {
"agreement": 1.0,
"concordant_pairs": 48,
"discordant_pairs": 0,
"informative_pairs": 48,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.014895639803871355,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns16",
"tied_pairs": 18,
"winner_match": false
},
"e2e_ms:p90": {
"agreement": 1.0,
"concordant_pairs": 48,
"discordant_pairs": 0,
"informative_pairs": 48,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.03590282591969048,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns16",
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"winner_match": false
},
"ttft_ms:mean": {
"agreement": 1.0,
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"discordant_pairs": 0,
"informative_pairs": 48,
"real_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.014940997472395743,
"sim_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8"
],
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},
"ttft_ms:p90": {
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"discordant_pairs": 0,
"informative_pairs": 48,
"real_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.035908453871728634,
"sim_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8"
],
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"winner_match": false
}
},
"sim_root": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/fixed-po"
}

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# Qwen30 Frontier vs real latency selection
| Objective | Frontier | Real | Match | Regret | Pairwise |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| ttft_ms:mean | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | no | 1.5% | 100.0% |
| ttft_ms:p90 | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | no | 3.6% | 100.0% |
| e2e_ms:mean | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | no | 1.5% | 100.0% |
| e2e_ms:p90 | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | no | 3.6% | 100.0% |

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View File

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{
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],
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}
}

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# Qwen30 real latency case audit
Prefill-only: `True`.
| Objective | Real winner | Value (ms) |
|---|---|---:|
| ttft_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns8 | 64.28 |
| ttft_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 | 67.95 |
| e2e_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns8 | 64.33 |
| e2e_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 | 67.99 |

View File

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View File

@@ -0,0 +1,326 @@
{
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"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/trace-po/runs/tp2_mns32/tp2/result.json"
},
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"ttft_ms": {
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"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/trace-po/runs/tp2_mns64/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp2_mns8": {
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"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/trace-po/runs/tp2_mns8/tp2/result.json"
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"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/trace-po/runs/tp4_mns16/tp4/result.json"
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"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/trace-po/runs/tp4_mns32/tp4/result.json"
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"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/trace-po/runs/tp4_mns64/tp4/result.json"
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}
},
"prefill_only": true,
"real_audit": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/analysis-r6/trace-po-real-audit.json",
"schema": "qwen30-latency-case-frontier-real-comparison-v1",
"selection": {
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"concordant_pairs": 53,
"discordant_pairs": 10,
"informative_pairs": 63,
"real_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.0318784105178655,
"sim_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns16",
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"real_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.0033158177113489728,
"sim_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns16",
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"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns8"
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"real_winner": "tp4_mns64",
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"sim_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
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"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
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"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
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"sim_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns8"
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}
},
"sim_root": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-latency-expansion-20260718-r2/sim/trace-po"
}

View File

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# Qwen30 Frontier vs real latency selection
| Objective | Frontier | Real | Match | Regret | Pairwise |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| ttft_ms:mean | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns64 | no | 3.2% | 84.1% |
| ttft_ms:p90 | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | no | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| e2e_ms:mean | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns64 | no | 3.2% | 84.1% |
| e2e_ms:p90 | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | no | 0.3% | 100.0% |

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View File

@@ -0,0 +1,997 @@
{
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"e2e_ms"
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"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"winner": "tp4_mns8",
"winner_value_ms": 666.7667380534112
}
}
}

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# Qwen30 real latency case audit
Prefill-only: `True`.
| Objective | Real winner | Value (ms) |
|---|---|---:|
| ttft_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns64 | 223.12 |
| ttft_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 | 666.77 |
| e2e_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns64 | 223.19 |
| e2e_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 | 667.10 |

View File

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{"e2e_ms:pooled_mean_ms": {"ranking": ["tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8"], "winner": "tp4_mns64", "winner_value_ms": 223.1923911500318}, "e2e_ms:pooled_p90_ms": {"ranking": ["tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp1_mns8", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns64"], "winner": "tp4_mns8", "winner_value_ms": 667.0993800507858}, "ttft_ms:pooled_mean_ms": {"ranking": ["tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns64", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns8"], "winner": "tp4_mns64", "winner_value_ms": 223.12445959072676}, "ttft_ms:pooled_p90_ms": {"ranking": ["tp4_mns8", "tp4_mns64", "tp4_mns32", "tp4_mns16", "tp2_mns64", "tp2_mns8", "tp2_mns32", "tp2_mns16", "tp1_mns8", "tp1_mns16", "tp1_mns32", "tp1_mns64"], "winner": "tp4_mns8", "winner_value_ms": 666.7667380534112}}

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,453 @@
{
"applicable_metrics": [
"ttft_ms",
"tpot_ms",
"e2e_ms"
],
"cells": {
"tp1_mns16": {
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"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 100982.41813966946,
"p90": 188801.20124415262
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp1_mns16/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp1_mns32": {
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"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp1_mns32/tp1/result.json"
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"tp1_mns64": {
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"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 36992.839178769755,
"p90": 38253.17393690583
},
"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 143.73592141724885,
"p90": 148.50084455017992
},
"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 340.1792173712992,
"p90": 390.1667904730175
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp1_mns64/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp1_mns8": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 231355.5665072295,
"p90": 401099.3133242681
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"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 79.72075104221494,
"p90": 80.05841803805441
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"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 211026.77499146466,
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"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp1_mns8/tp1/result.json"
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"tp2_mns16": {
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"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 69.3294093088488,
"p90": 69.78173796567563
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"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 81736.72267296212,
"p90": 152228.84203890432
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp2_mns16/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp2_mns32": {
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"p90": 71358.22494490076
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"mean": 26394.55075910572,
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp2_mns32/tp2/result.json"
},
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"e2e_ms": {
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"mean": 229.2526648211283,
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},
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},
"tp2_mns8": {
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"tpot_ms": {
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"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 159640.09849942484,
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp2_mns8/tp2/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns16": {
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"mean": 77014.8840236653,
"p90": 132893.6304418779
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"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 46.95641974752248,
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"mean": 65040.99698804708,
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp4_mns16/tp4/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns32": {
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"mean": 27316.2976512636,
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp4_mns32/tp4/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns64": {
"metrics": {
"e2e_ms": {
"mean": 24104.231142330624,
"p90": 29174.179941975835
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"tpot_ms": {
"mean": 69.02049776725552,
"p90": 72.06184134879742
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"ttft_ms": {
"mean": 6504.004211680465,
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp4_mns64/tp4/result.json"
},
"tp4_mns8": {
"metrics": {
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"p90": 233355.7233519645
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd/runs/tp4_mns8/tp4/result.json"
}
},
"prefill_only": false,
"real_audit": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/analysis/fixed-pd/real-audit.json",
"schema": "qwen30-latency-case-frontier-real-comparison-v1",
"selection": {
"e2e_ms:mean": {
"agreement": 0.5151515151515151,
"concordant_pairs": 34,
"discordant_pairs": 32,
"informative_pairs": 66,
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"tp4_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp1_mns32",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.017005214686575575,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": false
},
"e2e_ms:p90": {
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"concordant_pairs": 34,
"discordant_pairs": 32,
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"real_ranking": [
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"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp1_mns32",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.054933980018932745,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp2_mns64",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp2_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": false
},
"tpot_ms:mean": {
"agreement": 0.48484848484848486,
"concordant_pairs": 32,
"discordant_pairs": 34,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.0,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"tied_pairs": 0,
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},
"tpot_ms:p90": {
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"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.0,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"tied_pairs": 0,
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"real_ranking": [
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"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns32",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.5797674051508896,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp2_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
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},
"ttft_ms:p90": {
"agreement": 0.5909090909090909,
"concordant_pairs": 39,
"discordant_pairs": 27,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"selected_config_real_regret": 0.5620663582204116,
"sim_ranking": [
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp2_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": false
}
},
"sim_root": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-pd"
}

View File

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# Qwen30 Frontier vs real latency selection
| Objective | Frontier | Real | Match | Regret | Pairwise |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| ttft_ms:mean | tp2_mns64 | tp4_mns32 | no | 58.0% | 59.1% |
| ttft_ms:p90 | tp2_mns64 | tp4_mns64 | no | 56.2% | 59.1% |
| tpot_ms:mean | tp4_mns8 | tp4_mns8 | yes | 0.0% | 48.5% |
| tpot_ms:p90 | tp4_mns8 | tp4_mns8 | yes | 0.0% | 42.4% |
| e2e_ms:mean | tp4_mns64 | tp1_mns32 | no | 1.7% | 51.5% |
| e2e_ms:p90 | tp2_mns64 | tp1_mns32 | no | 5.5% | 51.5% |

View File

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# Qwen30 real latency case audit
Prefill-only: `False`.
| Objective | Real winner | Value (ms) |
|---|---|---:|
| ttft_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns32 | 123.16 |
| ttft_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns64 | 126.84 |
| tpot_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns8 | 8.42 |
| tpot_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 | 8.77 |
| e2e_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp1_mns32 | 3203.72 |
| e2e_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp1_mns32 | 3389.19 |

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,326 @@
{
"applicable_metrics": [
"ttft_ms",
"e2e_ms"
],
"cells": {
"tp1_mns16": {
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},
"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp1_mns16/tp1/result.json"
},
"tp1_mns32": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
"tp2_mns16": {
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"mean": 175.26431810890125,
"p90": 175.2643181089013
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"ttft_ms": {
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"path": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/qwen30-fixed-pressure-surface-20260719-r1/sim/fixed-po/runs/tp2_mns16/tp2/result.json"
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"tp2_mns32": {
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},
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},
"tp2_mns8": {
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},
"tp4_mns32": {
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}

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
# Qwen30 Frontier vs real latency selection
| Objective | Frontier | Real | Match | Regret | Pairwise |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| ttft_ms:mean | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | no | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| ttft_ms:p90 | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | no | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| e2e_ms:mean | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | no | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| e2e_ms:p90 | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | no | 0.5% | 100.0% |

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,997 @@
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}
}

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
# Qwen30 real latency case audit
Prefill-only: `True`.
| Objective | Real winner | Value (ms) |
|---|---|---:|
| ttft_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns32 | 113.40 |
| ttft_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns32 | 114.69 |
| e2e_ms:pooled_mean_ms | tp4_mns32 | 113.44 |
| e2e_ms:pooled_p90_ms | tp4_mns32 | 114.74 |

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,726 @@
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"concordant_pairs": 56,
"discordant_pairs": 10,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"pairwise_agreement_fraction": 0.8484848484848485,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": true
},
"ttft_ms:p90": {
"concordant_pairs": 56,
"discordant_pairs": 10,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"pairwise_agreement_fraction": 0.8484848484848485,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": true
}
},
"sim_root": "/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/graph-piecewise-qwen30-20260717/simulator-piecewise-surface-v2"
}

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# Frontier piecewise graph-profile vs. real vLLM
Each cell uses its TP-normalized, 129-request trace. Frontier values are one deterministic simulation; real values pool three fresh-server trials (387 requests/cell).
| Config | TTFT sim / real mean (ms) | TPOT sim / real mean (ms) | E2E sim / real mean (ms) |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| tp1_mns8 | 1669003.8 / 88479.9 | 76.0 / 14.3 | 1930772.9 / 137996.4 |
| tp1_mns16 | 870562.2 / 17378.2 | 99.1 / 20.6 | 1209178.7 / 87355.2 |
| tp1_mns32 | 316980.6 / 620.5 | 119.6 / 23.8 | 722298.9 / 81051.2 |
| tp1_mns64 | 105003.3 / 619.8 | 137.8 / 24.1 | 549486.0 / 82253.7 |
| tp2_mns8 | 1171654.6 / 95920.1 | 51.1 / 9.2 | 1348614.2 / 128296.9 |
| tp2_mns16 | 606885.2 / 34443.0 | 64.4 / 14.1 | 828082.5 / 82936.7 |
| tp2_mns32 | 224495.4 / 1050.6 | 74.8 / 18.0 | 479340.1 / 62267.5 |
| tp2_mns64 | 30524.5 / 375.8 | 82.6 / 18.2 | 311160.1 / 62353.6 |
| tp4_mns8 | 834500.2 / 102605.9 | 35.4 / 6.8 | 957838.5 / 126405.4 |
| tp4_mns16 | 429098.7 / 35042.6 | 43.2 / 8.8 | 578209.7 / 65779.1 |
| tp4_mns32 | 166734.5 / 6296.2 | 49.4 / 12.2 | 336309.9 / 47944.5 |
| tp4_mns64 | 26688.5 / 246.0 | 53.7 / 13.2 | 209788.3 / 44985.1 |
## Selection agreement
| Target | Frontier winner | Real winner | Match | Pairwise agreement |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| ttft_ms:mean | tp4_mns64 | tp4_mns64 | yes | 84.8% (56/66) |
| ttft_ms:p90 | tp4_mns64 | tp4_mns64 | yes | 84.8% (56/66) |
| tpot_ms:mean | tp4_mns8 | tp4_mns8 | yes | 97.0% (64/66) |
| tpot_ms:p90 | tp4_mns8 | tp4_mns8 | yes | 97.0% (64/66) |
| e2e_ms:mean | tp4_mns64 | tp4_mns64 | yes | 92.4% (61/66) |
| e2e_ms:p90 | tp4_mns64 | tp4_mns64 | yes | 83.3% (55/66) |

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ANALYSIS_LAUNCH_ECHO sim_root=/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/graph-piecewise-qwen30-20260717/simulator-piecewise-surface-v2 real_audit=/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/simulator-tuning-latency-q30-tp-normalized-u0p01-20260717/qwen30-tracepd-u0p01-real-audit.json outputs=/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/graph-piecewise-qwen30-20260717/simulator-piecewise-surface-v2/analysis expected=12 completed cells, rank+latency comparison
ANALYSIS_RETRY_ECHO sim_root=/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/graph-piecewise-qwen30-20260717/simulator-piecewise-surface-v2 real_audit_sha256=6e2c17bce5b0edb5f6f92aae4cc1b00f9390f692d31d059efe647158b386c8e9 output=/home/admin/cpfs/wjh/aituner/graph-piecewise-qwen30-20260717/simulator-piecewise-surface-v2/analysis

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{
"e2e_ms:mean": {
"concordant_pairs": 61,
"discordant_pairs": 5,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"pairwise_agreement_fraction": 0.9242424242424242,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": true
},
"e2e_ms:p90": {
"concordant_pairs": 55,
"discordant_pairs": 11,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"pairwise_agreement_fraction": 0.8333333333333334,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": true
},
"tpot_ms:mean": {
"concordant_pairs": 64,
"discordant_pairs": 2,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"pairwise_agreement_fraction": 0.9696969696969697,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": true
},
"tpot_ms:p90": {
"concordant_pairs": 64,
"discordant_pairs": 2,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"pairwise_agreement_fraction": 0.9696969696969697,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns8",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns8",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": true
},
"ttft_ms:mean": {
"concordant_pairs": 56,
"discordant_pairs": 10,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"pairwise_agreement_fraction": 0.8484848484848485,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": true
},
"ttft_ms:p90": {
"concordant_pairs": 56,
"discordant_pairs": 10,
"informative_pairs": 66,
"pairwise_agreement_fraction": 0.8484848484848485,
"real_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp1_mns8",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp4_mns8"
],
"real_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"sim_ranking": [
"tp4_mns64",
"tp2_mns64",
"tp1_mns64",
"tp4_mns32",
"tp2_mns32",
"tp1_mns32",
"tp4_mns16",
"tp2_mns16",
"tp4_mns8",
"tp1_mns16",
"tp2_mns8",
"tp1_mns8"
],
"sim_winner": "tp4_mns64",
"tied_pairs": 0,
"winner_match": true
}
}

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# Frontier good/bad split decomposition
All 70 rows are recomputed from frozen per-config JSON values. Lower is better for every objective. `scale` is the geometric mean of `sim/real`; spreads are shown as `100 ×` log-space width, while `real margin` is the ordinary relative difference `100 × (real_second / real_best - 1)`. H-SCALE compares the log-space spread with `log1p(real margin)`, not directly with the ordinary relative margin. The real top-3 neighborhood is selected independently for every row. Directional `m_s` and `delta_s` are already expressed in log-percentage points.
- Rows / case surfaces: 70 / 14.
- Failures (`regret > 5%`): 23.
- Exact winner mismatches: 47.
- H-SCALE counterexamples: 40.
## Unified decomposition
| case | objective | sim winner | real winner | regret | scale | spread all | spread real top-3 | real margin (relative) | sim-winner real loss | failure | H-SCALE | deciding axis | m_s | delta_s | n_inv_tp | n_inv_mns | n_inv_mixed | fragile success |
|---|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| q30 trace-pd | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_mns64 | tp4_mns64 | 0.0% | 45.900x | 414.0% | 73.5% | 52.8% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 trace-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_mns64 | tp4_mns64 | 0.0% | 43.384x | 386.3% | 136.8% | 67.6% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 trace-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp4_mns8 | tp4_mns8 | 0.0% | 4.799x | 34.2% | 11.9% | 30.3% | 0.0% | no | HOLDS | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 trace-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 | tp4_mns8 | 0.0% | 4.291x | 34.9% | 10.9% | 32.9% | 0.0% | no | HOLDS | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 trace-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_mns64 | tp4_mns64 | 0.0% | 8.263x | 109.9% | 50.1% | 6.6% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 trace-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_mns64 | tp4_mns64 | 0.0% | 8.066x | 123.0% | 70.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | yes |
| q30 fixed-pd high | ttft_mean_ms | tp2_mns64 | tp4_mns32 | 58.0% | 80.274x | 664.7% | 229.2% | 0.0% | 58.0% | yes | HOLDS | mixed | 45.7% | -523.8% | 2 | 1 | 2 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd high | ttft_p90_ms | tp2_mns64 | tp4_mns64 | 56.2% | 130.663x | 709.3% | 222.7% | 0.1% | 56.2% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 44.6% | -435.3% | 2 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd high | tpot_mean_ms | tp4_mns8 | tp4_mns8 | 0.0% | 6.313x | 118.1% | 95.7% | 34.4% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd high | tpot_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 | tp4_mns8 | 0.0% | 5.885x | 122.3% | 95.1% | 37.2% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd high | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_mns64 | tp1_mns32 | 1.7% | 18.867x | 226.5% | 111.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mixed | 1.7% | -82.6% | 2 | 1 | 2 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd high | e2e_p90_ms | tp2_mns64 | tp1_mns32 | 5.5% | 24.706x | 274.2% | 172.5% | 1.0% | 5.5% | yes | HOLDS | mixed | 5.3% | -101.7% | 1 | 1 | 2 | no |
| q30 fixed-po high | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | 0.3% | 0.964x | 27.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-po high | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | 0.5% | 0.956x | 26.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.5% | -0.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-po high | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | 0.3% | 0.964x | 27.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-po high | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | 0.5% | 0.956x | 26.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.5% | -0.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd low | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns16 | 0.0% | 1.368x | 43.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd low | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns16 | 0.0% | 1.402x | 48.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd low | tpot_mean_ms | tp1_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | 14.0% | 4.952x | 52.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 14.0% | yes | HOLDS | mixed | 13.1% | -52.5% | 2 | 0 | 6 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd low | tpot_p90_ms | tp1_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | 13.4% | 4.950x | 53.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 13.4% | yes | HOLDS | mixed | 12.5% | -52.8% | 2 | 0 | 6 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd low | e2e_mean_ms | tp1_mns16 | tp4_mns32 | 26.9% | 4.423x | 59.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 26.9% | yes | HOLDS | mixed | 23.8% | -59.6% | 2 | 0 | 6 | no |
| q30 fixed-pd low | e2e_p90_ms | tp1_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | 25.7% | 4.421x | 60.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 25.7% | yes | HOLDS | mixed | 22.9% | -59.8% | 2 | 0 | 6 | no |
| q30 fixed-po low | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | 1.5% | 1.218x | 20.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.5% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 1.5% | -1.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-po low | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | 3.6% | 1.184x | 16.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 3.6% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 3.5% | -3.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-po low | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | 1.5% | 1.217x | 20.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.5% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 1.5% | -1.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 fixed-po low | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | 3.6% | 1.183x | 16.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 3.6% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 3.5% | -3.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 trace-po low | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns64 | 3.2% | 0.657x | 18.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.2% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 3.1% | -3.1% | 0 | 3 | 0 | no |
| q30 trace-po low | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | 0.4% | 0.478x | 17.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.4% | -0.4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q30 trace-po low | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns64 | 3.2% | 0.657x | 18.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.2% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 3.1% | -3.1% | 0 | 3 | 0 | no |
| q30 trace-po low | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_mns16 | tp4_mns8 | 0.3% | 0.478x | 17.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 4.2% | 0.991x | 6.1% | 5.0% | 0.4% | 4.2% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | tp-axis | 4.1% | -5.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 0.2% | 1.020x | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.2% | -0.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | 33.0% | 3.025x | 64.0% | 63.9% | 0.7% | 33.0% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 28.5% | -64.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | 37.2% | 3.062x | 62.9% | 62.8% | 0.3% | 37.2% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 31.6% | -62.8% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | 30.7% | 2.913x | 61.5% | 61.5% | 0.7% | 30.7% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 26.8% | -61.5% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | 34.6% | 2.955x | 60.5% | 60.4% | 0.3% | 34.6% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 29.7% | -60.4% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 fixed-po | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 5.9% | 0.964x | 12.1% | 12.0% | 0.2% | 5.9% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 5.7% | -12.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 fixed-po | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 1.7% | 0.941x | 8.3% | 8.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | tp-axis | 1.7% | -8.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 fixed-po | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 5.9% | 0.964x | 12.1% | 12.0% | 0.2% | 5.9% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 5.7% | -12.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 fixed-po | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 1.7% | 0.941x | 8.3% | 8.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | tp-axis | 1.7% | -8.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 0.0% | 1.493x | 101.6% | 101.6% | 2220.3% | 0.0% | no | HOLDS | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 0.0% | 1.511x | 96.5% | 96.5% | 3455.8% | 0.0% | no | HOLDS | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 0.0% | 1.340x | 61.5% | 43.1% | 16.8% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 0.0% | 1.281x | 49.4% | 29.8% | 26.3% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 0.6% | 1.415x | 69.3% | 69.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.6% | -18.1% | 0 | 1 | 0 | no |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 6.2% | 1.473x | 71.5% | 71.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | yes | HOLDS | mns-axis | 6.0% | -16.7% | 0 | 1 | 0 | no |
| q235 A0 trace-po | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 7.0% | 0.753x | 36.3% | 34.6% | 1.4% | 7.0% | yes | HOLDS | mixed | 6.8% | -36.3% | 1 | 1 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 trace-po | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 21.2% | 0.767x | 31.8% | 31.6% | 0.3% | 21.2% | yes | HOLDS | mixed | 19.2% | -31.6% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 trace-po | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 7.0% | 0.753x | 36.3% | 34.6% | 1.4% | 7.0% | yes | HOLDS | mixed | 6.8% | -36.3% | 1 | 1 | 1 | no |
| q235 A0 trace-po | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 21.2% | 0.766x | 31.8% | 31.6% | 0.3% | 21.2% | yes | HOLDS | mixed | 19.2% | -31.6% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 0.0% | 0.805x | 26.8% | 26.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | yes |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 0.2% | 0.837x | 30.5% | 30.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.2% | -0.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | 33.0% | 2.608x | 60.1% | 60.0% | 0.7% | 33.0% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 28.5% | -60.1% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | 37.2% | 2.587x | 61.2% | 61.1% | 0.3% | 37.2% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 31.6% | -61.1% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | 30.7% | 2.508x | 58.3% | 58.2% | 0.7% | 30.7% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 26.8% | -58.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp4_ep1_mns128 | 34.6% | 2.495x | 59.3% | 59.2% | 0.3% | 34.6% | yes | HOLDS | tp-axis | 29.7% | -59.2% | 1 | 0 | 1 | no |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 0.0% | 0.776x | 24.8% | 24.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | yes |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 0.0% | 0.757x | 28.9% | 28.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | yes |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 0.0% | 0.776x | 24.8% | 24.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | yes |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 0.0% | 0.757x | 28.9% | 28.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | yes |
| q235 A1 trace-pd | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 0.0% | 1.217x | 154.4% | 154.4% | 2220.3% | 0.0% | no | HOLDS | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A1 trace-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 0.0% | 1.219x | 151.1% | 151.1% | 3455.8% | 0.0% | no | HOLDS | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A1 trace-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 0.0% | 1.338x | 46.7% | 28.2% | 16.8% | 0.0% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A1 trace-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 0.0% | 1.221x | 45.3% | 22.3% | 26.3% | 0.0% | no | HOLDS | none | 0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A1 trace-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 0.6% | 1.430x | 48.8% | 48.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.6% | -15.9% | 0 | 1 | 0 | no |
| q235 A1 trace-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 6.2% | 1.492x | 49.7% | 49.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | yes | HOLDS | mns-axis | 6.0% | -17.4% | 0 | 1 | 0 | no |
| q235 A1 trace-po | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 1.4% | 0.548x | 32.2% | 32.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 1.4% | -1.4% | 0 | 1 | 0 | no |
| q235 A1 trace-po | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 0.3% | 0.568x | 31.9% | 31.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
| q235 A1 trace-po | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 | tp8_ep8_mns128 | 1.4% | 0.548x | 32.2% | 32.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 1.4% | -1.4% | 0 | 1 | 0 | no |
| q235 A1 trace-po | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp8_ep8_mns64 | 0.3% | 0.568x | 31.9% | 31.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | no | COUNTEREXAMPLE | mns-axis | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | no |
## H-SCALE verdict
H-SCALE is not sufficient as stated; the following rows are counterexamples to the biconditional:
All 40 observed counterexamples are non-failures with spread > `log1p(margin)`; there are 0 failures with spread <= `log1p(margin)`. Thus the threshold is necessary for the observed failures but not sufficient to predict them.
| case | objective | failure | spread real top-3 | real margin | counterexample type |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---|
| q30 trace-pd | ttft_mean_ms | no | 73.5% | 52.8% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 trace-pd | ttft_p90_ms | no | 136.8% | 67.6% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 trace-pd | e2e_mean_ms | no | 50.1% | 6.6% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 trace-pd | e2e_p90_ms | no | 70.3% | 0.1% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-pd high | tpot_mean_ms | no | 95.7% | 34.4% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-pd high | tpot_p90_ms | no | 95.1% | 37.2% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-pd high | e2e_mean_ms | no | 111.5% | 0.7% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-po high | ttft_mean_ms | no | 0.3% | 0.1% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-po high | ttft_p90_ms | no | 0.3% | 0.0% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-po high | e2e_mean_ms | no | 0.3% | 0.1% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-po high | e2e_p90_ms | no | 0.3% | 0.0% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-pd low | ttft_mean_ms | no | 1.5% | 1.3% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-pd low | ttft_p90_ms | no | 2.9% | 1.8% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-po low | ttft_mean_ms | no | 1.1% | 0.3% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-po low | ttft_p90_ms | no | 2.3% | 0.6% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-po low | e2e_mean_ms | no | 1.1% | 0.3% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 fixed-po low | e2e_p90_ms | no | 2.4% | 0.7% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 trace-po low | ttft_mean_ms | no | 2.6% | 1.7% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 trace-po low | ttft_p90_ms | no | 0.2% | 0.2% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 trace-po low | e2e_mean_ms | no | 2.6% | 1.7% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q30 trace-po low | e2e_p90_ms | no | 0.2% | 0.1% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | ttft_mean_ms | no | 5.0% | 0.4% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | ttft_p90_ms | no | 2.4% | 0.2% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A0 fixed-po | ttft_p90_ms | no | 8.0% | 0.3% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A0 fixed-po | e2e_p90_ms | no | 8.0% | 0.3% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | tpot_mean_ms | no | 43.1% | 16.8% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | tpot_p90_ms | no | 29.8% | 26.3% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | e2e_mean_ms | no | 69.3% | 0.6% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | ttft_mean_ms | no | 26.8% | 0.4% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | ttft_p90_ms | no | 30.5% | 0.2% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | ttft_mean_ms | no | 24.8% | 0.2% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | ttft_p90_ms | no | 28.9% | 0.3% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | e2e_mean_ms | no | 24.8% | 0.2% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | e2e_p90_ms | no | 28.9% | 0.3% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 trace-pd | tpot_mean_ms | no | 28.2% | 16.8% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 trace-pd | e2e_mean_ms | no | 48.8% | 0.6% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 trace-po | ttft_mean_ms | no | 32.2% | 1.4% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 trace-po | ttft_p90_ms | no | 31.9% | 0.3% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 trace-po | e2e_mean_ms | no | 32.2% | 1.4% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
| q235 A1 trace-po | e2e_p90_ms | no | 31.9% | 0.3% | non-failure with spread > log1p(margin) |
## S0b directional conclusions
Directional pair statistics remove the S0 range statistic's ambiguity by measuring every config against the real winner. Strict inversions use the frozen-value test `real_c > real_w and sim_c < sim_w`; simulator ties are not counted as inversions.
### (a) Which config axis decides each material failure?
| case | objective | real winner → sim winner | deciding axis | m_s | delta_s | -delta_s | regret |
|---|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| q30 fixed-pd high | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_mns32 → tp2_mns64 | mixed | 45.7% | -523.8% | 523.8% | 58.0% |
| q30 fixed-pd high | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_mns64 → tp2_mns64 | tp-axis | 44.6% | -435.3% | 435.3% | 56.2% |
| q30 fixed-pd high | e2e_p90_ms | tp1_mns32 → tp2_mns64 | mixed | 5.3% | -101.7% | 101.7% | 5.5% |
| q30 fixed-pd low | tpot_mean_ms | tp4_mns32 → tp1_mns16 | mixed | 13.1% | -52.5% | 52.5% | 14.0% |
| q30 fixed-pd low | tpot_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 → tp1_mns16 | mixed | 12.5% | -52.8% | 52.8% | 13.4% |
| q30 fixed-pd low | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_mns32 → tp1_mns16 | mixed | 23.8% | -59.6% | 59.6% | 26.9% |
| q30 fixed-pd low | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 → tp1_mns16 | mixed | 22.9% | -59.8% | 59.8% | 25.7% |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 → tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp-axis | 28.5% | -64.0% | 64.0% | 33.0% |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 → tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp-axis | 31.6% | -62.8% | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 → tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp-axis | 26.8% | -61.5% | 61.5% | 30.7% |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 → tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp-axis | 29.7% | -60.4% | 60.4% | 34.6% |
| q235 A0 fixed-po | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 → tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp-axis | 5.7% | -12.0% | 12.0% | 5.9% |
| q235 A0 fixed-po | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 → tp4_ep1_mns128 | tp-axis | 5.7% | -12.0% | 12.0% | 5.9% |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 → tp8_ep8_mns128 | mns-axis | 6.0% | -16.7% | 16.7% | 6.2% |
| q235 A0 trace-po | ttft_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 → tp4_ep1_mns64 | mixed | 6.8% | -36.3% | 36.3% | 7.0% |
| q235 A0 trace-po | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 → tp4_ep1_mns128 | mixed | 19.2% | -31.6% | 31.6% | 21.2% |
| q235 A0 trace-po | e2e_mean_ms | tp8_ep8_mns128 → tp4_ep1_mns64 | mixed | 6.8% | -36.3% | 36.3% | 7.0% |
| q235 A0 trace-po | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 → tp4_ep1_mns128 | mixed | 19.2% | -31.6% | 31.6% | 21.2% |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | tpot_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 → tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp-axis | 28.5% | -60.1% | 60.1% | 33.0% |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | tpot_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 → tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp-axis | 31.6% | -61.1% | 61.1% | 37.2% |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 → tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp-axis | 26.8% | -58.3% | 58.3% | 30.7% |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_ep1_mns128 → tp8_ep8_mns128 | tp-axis | 29.7% | -59.2% | 59.2% | 34.6% |
| q235 A1 trace-pd | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 → tp8_ep8_mns128 | mns-axis | 6.0% | -17.4% | 17.4% | 6.2% |
### (b) Where do TP-axis and MNS-axis inversions and boundary ties concentrate?
`n_inv_*` counts sum strict `(real winner, c)` pair inversions across all objectives in each case; a row can contain more than one inverted pair. `n_tie_*` counts cover exact simulator ties only for the simulator-selected winner versus the real winner. Ties remain decision-boundary winner-label mismatches, not strict reversals.
| case | n_inv_tp | n_inv_mns | n_inv_mixed | n_tie_tp | n_tie_mns | n_tie_mixed |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| q30 trace-pd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| q30 fixed-pd high | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| q30 fixed-po high | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| q30 fixed-pd low | 8 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| q30 fixed-po low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| q30 trace-po low | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| q235 A0 fixed-po | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| q235 A0 trace-pd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| q235 A0 trace-po | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| q235 A1 trace-pd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| q235 A1 trace-po | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| **total** | **32** | **17** | **47** | **0** | **14** | **0** |
- Among strict inversions, TP-axis cases are most concentrated in: q30 fixed-pd low (8), q30 fixed-pd high (7), q235 A0 fixed-pd (5), q235 A0 fixed-po (4), q235 A0 trace-po (4).
- Among strict inversions, MNS-axis cases are most concentrated in: q30 trace-po low (6), q30 fixed-pd high (3), q235 A0 trace-pd (2), q235 A0 trace-po (2), q235 A1 trace-pd (2).
- The eight Q235 A0/A1 Fixed-PD failures are all tp-axis. This does not conflict with the A0/MNS64 state-drift diagnosis, but does not constitute additional state-drift evidence for A1/MNS128.
- Q30 admission evidence does not map one-to-one to an MNS-axis deciding pair: high-pressure Fixed-PD TTFT mean is **mixed** and p90 is **tp-axis**. This is an axis/mechanism mismatch, not a direct causal contradiction: changing TP changes offered arrival pressure, while the diagnosed nonlinear event is crossing the MNS admission cap. It rules out the simpler claim that an MNS-threshold mechanism must appear as an mns-axis winner pair.
- All 14 exact simulator winner ties are mns-axis. Including these boundary errors gives MNS **17 + 14 = 31**, comparable to TP's **32** strict inversions.
The exact ties below show that Frontier is completely insensitive to MNS changes within the corresponding case/objective cell:
| case | objective | real winner ↔ simulator-selected tied winner (MNS pair) |
|---|---|---|
| q30 fixed-po high | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_mns32 ↔ tp4_mns16 |
| q30 fixed-po high | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_mns32 ↔ tp4_mns16 |
| q30 fixed-po high | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_mns32 ↔ tp4_mns16 |
| q30 fixed-po high | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_mns32 ↔ tp4_mns16 |
| q30 fixed-po low | ttft_mean_ms | tp4_mns8 ↔ tp4_mns16 |
| q30 fixed-po low | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 ↔ tp4_mns16 |
| q30 fixed-po low | e2e_mean_ms | tp4_mns8 ↔ tp4_mns16 |
| q30 fixed-po low | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 ↔ tp4_mns16 |
| q30 trace-po low | ttft_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 ↔ tp4_mns16 |
| q30 trace-po low | e2e_p90_ms | tp4_mns8 ↔ tp4_mns16 |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 ↔ tp8_ep8_mns128 |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 ↔ tp8_ep8_mns128 |
| q235 A1 trace-po | ttft_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 ↔ tp8_ep8_mns128 |
| q235 A1 trace-po | e2e_p90_ms | tp8_ep8_mns64 ↔ tp8_ep8_mns128 |
### (c) How many exact-winner successes are margin-robust?
Among exact winner matches, **17** are margin-robust (`margin >= 1%`) and **6** are fragile (`margin < 1%`). Separately, 14 winner-label mismatches come from exact simulator ties and sit on the decision boundary rather than being strict inversions.
| fragile-success case | objective | real margin |
|---|---|---:|
| q30 trace-pd | e2e_p90_ms | 0.1% |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd | ttft_mean_ms | 0.4% |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | ttft_mean_ms | 0.2% |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | ttft_p90_ms | 0.3% |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | e2e_mean_ms | 0.2% |
| q235 A1 fixed-po | e2e_p90_ms | 0.3% |
## Cross-checks
| check | observed | frozen expectation | result |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| q30 high-pressure fixed-pd TTFT mean regret | 58.0% | 58.0% | PASS |
| q235 A0 fixed-pd TPOT mean regret | 33.0% | 33.0% | PASS |
| q235 A1 fixed-pd TPOT mean regret | 33.0% | 33.0% | PASS |
| q30 trace-pd all-objective regret | 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% | 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% | PASS |
| q235 Trace-PO TTFT p90 A0 to A1 regret | 21.2%, 0.3% | 21.2%, 0.3% | PASS |
| q235 Fixed-PD TPOT/E2E regrets unchanged from A0 to A1 | 33.0%, 37.2%, 30.7%, 34.6%, 33.0%, 37.2%, 30.7%, 34.6% | 33.0%, 37.2%, 30.7%, 34.6%, 33.0%, 37.2%, 30.7%, 34.6% | PASS |
## Data gaps
No per-config sim/real pairing gaps were found in the requested surfaces.
## 异常
- 无。重算 winner/regret 与 frozen JSON 一致,硬性交叉核对均通过。
## Figure
`margin-vs-residual.png` uses x = `100 × log1p(real best-vs-second relative margin)` and y = `100 ×` real-top-3 log-ratio spread. Both axes are logarithmic because the real margins span six orders of magnitude. Green means exact winner match; red means winner mismatch. The diagonal is the H-SCALE threshold, while failure itself is defined by regret, not by exact winner match.
`decision-pair-axis.png` is a mechanism census, not a hypothesis test: for a strict winner reversal, `-delta_s > m_s` is algebraically equivalent to the mismatch. The frozen surfaces also contain deterministic winner-label mismatches caused by exact simulator ties; those points lie on `-delta_s = m_s` and are not counted as strict inversions. Color identifies the winner-deciding config axis and marker area is proportional to regret.
## A0 vs A1 对照
A1 repairs the Q235 Trace-PO p90 ranking error but leaves the four large Fixed-PD TPOT/E2E regrets unchanged.
| case / objective | A0 regret | A1 regret |
|---|---:|---:|
| trace-po / ttft_p90_ms | 21.2% | 0.3% |
| fixed-pd / tpot_mean_ms | 33.0% | 33.0% |
| fixed-pd / tpot_p90_ms | 37.2% | 37.2% |
| fixed-pd / e2e_mean_ms | 30.7% | 30.7% |
| fixed-pd / e2e_p90_ms | 34.6% | 34.6% |
Thus Trace-PO TTFT p90 changes **21.2% → 0.3%**, whereas Fixed-PD remains **33.0% / 37.2% / 30.7% / 34.6%** in both A0 and A1.
## 已知分量归因摘要
### Q30 high-pressure Fixed-PD TTFT: first-scheduling wait vs execution-side TTFT
`queue-free TTFT` is the execution-side TTFT after removing first-scheduling wait; in the frozen diagnostic, simulated TTFT is their sum (up to floating-point rounding).
| config | sim TPOT / real | sim slots / MNS | real slots upper / MNS | first-scheduling wait | queue-free TTFT | sim TTFT | real TTFT | real waiting max |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| tp2_mns64 | 8.09x | 58.0/64 | 7.5/64 | 38.2 ms | 191.0 ms | 229.3 ms | 194.6 ms | 0 |
| tp4_mns16 | 3.83x | 54.5/16 | 14.6/16 | 64906.3 ms | 134.7 ms | 65041.0 ms | 124.5 ms | 0 |
| tp4_mns32 | 4.67x | 65.9/32 | 14.5/32 | 27180.7 ms | 135.6 ms | 27316.3 ms | 123.2 ms | 0 |
| tp4_mns64 | 5.61x | 79.8/64 | 14.7/64 | 6367.3 ms | 136.7 ms | 6504.0 ms | 123.2 ms | 0 |
For TP4/MNS32 minus TP2/MNS64, the observed simulator contrast is **+27087.0 ms**; removing first-scheduling wait changes it to **-55.4 ms**, aligned with the real contrast **-71.4 ms**. This localizes the Q30 high-pressure TTFT reversal to admission queueing, while the upstream service-time overprediction remains unattributed in the frozen data.
### Q235 Fixed-PD: own-composition vs exact-state contrast
Positive TP8TP4 means TP8 is slower and therefore agrees with the real TP4 winner.
| config | sim own decode batch mean | real exact decode batch mean | real token-weighted iteration | exact-state matched sim | coverage |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| tp4_ep1_mns64 | 13.537 | 3.890 | 18.4710 ms | 34.2575 ms | 100.0% |
| tp8_ep8_mns64 | 18.938 | 10.921 | 27.5887 ms | 45.1603 ms | 100.0% |
| component | own-composition TP8TP4 | exact-state TP8TP4 |
|---|---:|---:|
| total | -20.0663 ms | +10.9028 ms |
| moe_compute | -32.4544 ms | -1.9774 ms |
| attention | -7.4619 ms | -2.1304 ms |
| tp_dp_communication | -6.5711 ms | -6.4718 ms |
| ep_communication | +6.2354 ms | +6.5355 ms |
| moe_routing | -0.2862 ms | +0.1384 ms |
| dense_mlp_compute | -0.1231 ms | -0.0308 ms |
| pipeline_communication | +0.0000 ms | +0.0000 ms |
| runtime_overhead | +0.0000 ms | +0.0000 ms |
The total contrast flips from **-20.0663 ms** on Frontier's own composition to **+10.9028 ms** at exact real state, a **+30.9690 ms** state-composition shift. The exact real iteration contrast is **+9.1177 ms** and the frozen real TPOT contrast is **+6.9500 ms**. This supports closed-loop state/composition drift for Q235 Fixed-PD; it does not by itself attribute every remaining conditional execution residual.

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