Prepare remaining Qwen30 latency cases

runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/qwen30-latency-expansion-card.md

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+# EXP-SIMFID-Q30-LATENCY-EXPANSION: remaining Fixed/Trace × PD/P cases
+
+> Status: prepared for runtime-alignment preflight (2026-07-18). The already
+> completed Qwen3-30B-A3B Trace-PD surface is excluded from this card.
+
+## Question and fixed boundary
+
+Does the same graph-aligned Frontier configuration that selected the correct
+winner on Trace-PD also select the real vLLM winner when either the arrival/
+prefix state or the decode phase is removed? This is a selection test, not an
+SLO/capacity evaluation.
+
+| Case | Input / output | arrival and cache | Applicable objectives |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Fixed-PD | 2048 / 128 | 129 uniform requests; `t'=t/TP`; prefix cache off | mean/p90 TTFT, TPOT, E2E |
+| Trace-P | exact held-out input, arrival, session and complete block-16 prefix relation / 1 | same TP-normalized 129-row trace; prefix cache on | mean/p90 TTFT, E2E; TPOT=N/A |
+| Fixed-P | 2048 / 1 | 129 uniform requests; `t'=t/TP`; prefix cache off | mean/p90 TTFT, E2E; TPOT=N/A |
+
+All cases use Qwen3-30B-A3B BF16, community vLLM 0.20.0, H20, `TP∈{1,2,4}`
+and `MNS∈{8,16,32,64}`, MBT=8192, chunked prefill, three fresh-server trials
+per cell. The fixed QPS is the Trace-PD base offered rate (`129/600` req/s per
+GPU), hence the global arrival rate is multiplied by TP. It makes throughput
+per GPU comparable without claiming that different TP values see identical
+cluster-level load.
+
+## Simulator and real contracts
+
+- Frontier uses commit `deadc4a…`, `piecewise`, the frozen CUDA-event profile
+  for prefill/mixed batches and KERNEL_ONLY profile for captured pure decode.
+- Trace-P reuses the already verified graph buckets/KV capacities because the
+  server CLI is unchanged from Trace-PD. The only workload change is `OSL→1`.
+- Fixed-P/PD disables vLLM prefix caching on both sides. Before freezing their
+  simulator surfaces, a no-request server-start preflight records the actual
+  graph captures and KV-block capacities for every `(TP,MNS)`; no request
+  latency or winner is used as calibration.
+- Each real result verifies every request's input/output usage and row-vector
+  digest. `OSL=1` produces JSON `null` TPOT samples and is never converted to
+  zero.
+
+## Decision rule and cost
+
+For every applicable objective, compare the complete 12-cell simulator and
+pooled three-trial real surface: winner match, selected-config real regret,
+and non-tied pair direction agreement. A simulator crash or missing request
+metric is a coverage failure, not a high-latency cell.
+
+The no-request Fixed runtime preflight is capped at 2 H20-GPUh. Each 36-run
+real surface is estimated at 13 nominal / 41 worst-case H20-GPUh, plus CPU-only
+Frontier replay. Launch logs record the resolved inputs, paths, and duration.