aituner/runs/frontier-fidelity-envelope-v1/qwen30-latency-expansion-card.md

EXP-SIMFID-Q30-LATENCY-EXPANSION: remaining Fixed/Trace × PD/P cases

Status: prepared for runtime-alignment preflight (2026-07-18). The already completed Qwen3-30B-A3B Trace-PD surface is excluded from this card.

Question and fixed boundary

Does the same graph-aligned Frontier configuration that selected the correct winner on Trace-PD also select the real vLLM winner when either the arrival/ prefix state or the decode phase is removed? This is a selection test, not an SLO/capacity evaluation.

Case	Input / output	arrival and cache	Applicable objectives
Fixed-PD	2048 / 128	129 uniform requests; t'=t/TP; prefix cache off	mean/p90 TTFT, TPOT, E2E
Trace-P	exact held-out input, arrival, session and complete block-16 prefix relation / 1	same TP-normalized 129-row trace; prefix cache on	mean/p90 TTFT, E2E; TPOT=N/A
Fixed-P	2048 / 1	129 uniform requests; t'=t/TP; prefix cache off	mean/p90 TTFT, E2E; TPOT=N/A

All cases use Qwen3-30B-A3B BF16, community vLLM 0.20.0, H20, TP∈{1,2,4} and MNS∈{8,16,32,64}, MBT=8192, chunked prefill, three fresh-server trials per cell. The fixed QPS is the Trace-PD base offered rate (129/600 req/s per GPU), hence the global arrival rate is multiplied by TP. It makes throughput per GPU comparable without claiming that different TP values see identical cluster-level load.

Simulator and real contracts

• Frontier uses commit deadc4a…, piecewise, the frozen CUDA-event profile for prefill/mixed batches and KERNEL_ONLY profile for captured pure decode.
• Trace-P reuses the already verified graph buckets/KV capacities because the server CLI is unchanged from Trace-PD. The only workload change is OSL→1.
• Fixed-P/PD disables vLLM prefix caching on both sides. Before freezing their simulator surfaces, a no-request server-start preflight records the actual graph captures and KV-block capacities for every (TP,MNS); no request latency or winner is used as calibration.
• Each real result verifies every request's input/output usage and row-vector digest. OSL=1 produces JSON null TPOT samples and is never converted to zero.

Decision rule and cost

For every applicable objective, compare the complete 12-cell simulator and pooled three-trial real surface: winner match, selected-config real regret, and non-tied pair direction agreement. A simulator crash or missing request metric is a coverage failure, not a high-latency cell.

The no-request Fixed runtime preflight is capped at 2 H20-GPUh. Each 36-run real surface is estimated at 13 nominal / 41 worst-case H20-GPUh, plus CPU-only Frontier replay. Launch logs record the resolved inputs, paths, and duration.