72 lines
3.0 KiB
Markdown
72 lines
3.0 KiB
Markdown
# Telemetry intervention-response v0 protocol
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Status: **FROZEN BEFORE V0 ANALYSIS**.
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Date: 2026-07-14 (Asia/Singapore).
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## Claim boundary
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The closed residual route asked whether one absolute engine-state snapshot can
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predict unmeasured configurations. V0 asks a different, narrower question:
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> Does an adjacent, controlled MNS intervention produce an early engine-state
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> response that is distinguishable from same-config repeat noise?
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Passing this gate only authorizes a matched real-GPU pilot. It does not prove
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that telemetry improves tuning, that any metric is a causal mediator, or that
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the response transfers to a new workload, topology, or knob family.
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## Data and estimand
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- Source: Phase 6 solo-authoritative Qwen3-30B-A3B/vLLM 0.24 Layer-1 streams.
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- Action pairs: primary runs at identical study hash, TP, sampling anchor, and
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request-order hash, with adjacent `MNS={8,16,32,64}` values.
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- Noise pairs: primary versus confirmation at the same complete config,
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anchor, and request-order hash. Only primary-to-confirmation pairs are used;
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confirmations are not combined into pseudo-independent all-pairs.
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- Fixed early windows: 5 seconds and 10 seconds from the measured interval
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start. All runs exceed 10 seconds, so early-stop censoring cannot change the
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telemetry window.
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- Full-run pass rate and feasibility are descriptive only because an early
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stop can make full elapsed durations differ.
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The statistical unit is a run pair. Scheduler steps are summarized within a
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run and are never counted as independent trials.
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## Frozen response gate
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The directly measured gate features are scheduler-step rate, decode-batch
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mean, prefill-token fraction, waiting/running queue mean, KV-usage mean, and
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CUDA-graph padding fraction.
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A feature qualifies at one horizon only if:
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1. at least 75% of nonzero action deltas have the same sign;
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2. median absolute action delta is at least 2x the median absolute repeat
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delta; and
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3. at least 50% of action deltas exceed the repeat-noise absolute p95.
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V0 opens a GPU pilot only if:
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- there are exactly 17 frozen adjacent-MNS action pairs;
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- there are at least 20 primary/confirmation repeat pairs;
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- all identity, finite-value, counter, and ratio invariants pass; and
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- at least two gate features qualify at both 5 and 10 seconds.
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Any data red flag stops the analysis before interpreting the response.
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## If V0 passes
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Register a dash0 pilot around a known scaling knee. The pilot must use the
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same request sequence and arrival times, one serving job at a time, one changed
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knob, randomized `A/B` versus `B/A` order, common non-censored measurement
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windows, and trial-level repetitions. It must compare a response-aware next
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action against an outcome-only policy under complete startup, warm-up, and
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H20-hour accounting.
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## If V0 fails
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Do not add telemetry fields or train a larger model. The current Layer-1 state
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does not identify even an MNS intervention above repeat noise on this task, so
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the telemetry-guided tuning route remains diagnostic only.
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