59 lines
2.8 KiB
Markdown
59 lines
2.8 KiB
Markdown
# Intervention-response v1 prospective-repeat confirmation
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Status: **FROZEN AFTER PHASE-6 V0 FAILURE AND BEFORE P1 RESPONSE ANALYSIS**.
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Date: 2026-07-14 (Asia/Singapore).
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## Why this is a new confirmation, not a relaxed V0
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Phase-6 V0 failed its frozen global response gate. Its 29 same-config
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confirmations were triggered after disputed outcomes, and the resulting noise
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sample contains extreme trajectory divergence by construction. V0 remains
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failed and its thresholds are unchanged.
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The already-completed P1 campaign supplies a distinct test: three
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prospectively scheduled, disjoint repeat bands for every cell/load. TP1 and
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TP4 use identical offered loads and exact request-order hashes across their MNS
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endpoints. V1 asks whether an MNS response is identifiable against this
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prospective workload-repeat noise, and whether that response predicts action
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efficacy beyond exact external prefix outcomes.
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P1 is now development data. No result here is held-out or paper-facing.
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## Frozen pairs
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- Action pairs: TP1 `MNS 8 -> 64` and TP4 `MNS 16 -> 64`, at low/high load and
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repeat 1/2/3. Endpoints must have identical TP, offered rate, repeat role,
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and request-order hash. Expected `n=12`.
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- Repeat-noise pairs: consecutive pre-arranged repeat bands within each of six
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cells and low/high load: `rep1 -> rep2`, `rep2 -> rep3`. Expected `n=24`.
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Repeat bands intentionally contain different requests and therefore include
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workload-sampling noise rather than pretending to be identical trials.
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Adjacent differences share the middle run; the gate uses their empirical
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magnitude only and does not treat the 24 differences as independent samples
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for a p-value or confidence interval.
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- Prefix horizons: 5 and 10 seconds. Exact monotonic request completion times
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and the same Layer-1 intervals are used.
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## Frozen gates
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The response-identifiability thresholds are exactly the Phase-6 V0 thresholds:
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75% sign consistency, 2x median effect/repeat noise, and at least 50% of action
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deltas above repeat absolute p95. At least two response features must qualify
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at both horizons.
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Action efficacy is one only for an infeasible-to-feasible full-run transition.
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The 12 action pairs must contain at least four examples of each class.
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For decision relevance, each individual external-outcome response feature and
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each individual telemetry-response feature is evaluated by leave-one-repeat-
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band-out threshold fitting. This intentionally avoids a multivariate model on
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12 examples. At least one telemetry feature must, at both horizons:
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1. reach balanced accuracy at least 0.75; and
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2. exceed the best external-outcome response feature by at least 0.15.
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Only if data validity, response identifiability, and incremental decision
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relevance all pass does V1 open a newly registered matched GPU pilot. No
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threshold or feature is changed after observing V1.
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