Telemetry intervention-response v0 protocol

Status: FROZEN BEFORE V0 ANALYSIS.

Date: 2026-07-14 (Asia/Singapore).

Claim boundary

The closed residual route asked whether one absolute engine-state snapshot can predict unmeasured configurations. V0 asks a different, narrower question:

Does an adjacent, controlled MNS intervention produce an early engine-state response that is distinguishable from same-config repeat noise?

Passing this gate only authorizes a matched real-GPU pilot. It does not prove that telemetry improves tuning, that any metric is a causal mediator, or that the response transfers to a new workload, topology, or knob family.

Data and estimand

Source: Phase 6 solo-authoritative Qwen3-30B-A3B/vLLM 0.24 Layer-1 streams.
Action pairs: primary runs at identical study hash, TP, sampling anchor, and request-order hash, with adjacent MNS={8,16,32,64} values.
Noise pairs: primary versus confirmation at the same complete config, anchor, and request-order hash. Only primary-to-confirmation pairs are used; confirmations are not combined into pseudo-independent all-pairs.
Fixed early windows: 5 seconds and 10 seconds from the measured interval start. All runs exceed 10 seconds, so early-stop censoring cannot change the telemetry window.
Full-run pass rate and feasibility are descriptive only because an early stop can make full elapsed durations differ.

The statistical unit is a run pair. Scheduler steps are summarized within a run and are never counted as independent trials.

Frozen response gate

The directly measured gate features are scheduler-step rate, decode-batch mean, prefill-token fraction, waiting/running queue mean, KV-usage mean, and CUDA-graph padding fraction.

A feature qualifies at one horizon only if:

at least 75% of nonzero action deltas have the same sign;
median absolute action delta is at least 2x the median absolute repeat delta; and
at least 50% of action deltas exceed the repeat-noise absolute p95.

V0 opens a GPU pilot only if:

there are exactly 17 frozen adjacent-MNS action pairs;
there are at least 20 primary/confirmation repeat pairs;
all identity, finite-value, counter, and ratio invariants pass; and
at least two gate features qualify at both 5 and 10 seconds.

Any data red flag stops the analysis before interpreting the response.

If V0 passes

Register a dash0 pilot around a known scaling knee. The pilot must use the same request sequence and arrival times, one serving job at a time, one changed knob, randomized A/B versus B/A order, common non-censored measurement windows, and trial-level repetitions. It must compare a response-aware next action against an outcome-only policy under complete startup, warm-up, and H20-hour accounting.

If V0 fails

Do not add telemetry fields or train a larger model. The current Layer-1 state does not identify even an MNS intervention above repeat noise on this task, so the telemetry-guided tuning route remains diagnostic only.

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