aituner/docs/intervention-response-v1-p1-protocol-20260714.md

Intervention-response v1 prospective-repeat confirmation

Status: FROZEN AFTER PHASE-6 V0 FAILURE AND BEFORE P1 RESPONSE ANALYSIS.

Date: 2026-07-14 (Asia/Singapore).

Why this is a new confirmation, not a relaxed V0

Phase-6 V0 failed its frozen global response gate. Its 29 same-config confirmations were triggered after disputed outcomes, and the resulting noise sample contains extreme trajectory divergence by construction. V0 remains failed and its thresholds are unchanged.

The already-completed P1 campaign supplies a distinct test: three prospectively scheduled, disjoint repeat bands for every cell/load. TP1 and TP4 use identical offered loads and exact request-order hashes across their MNS endpoints. V1 asks whether an MNS response is identifiable against this prospective workload-repeat noise, and whether that response predicts action efficacy beyond exact external prefix outcomes.

P1 is now development data. No result here is held-out or paper-facing.

Frozen pairs

• Action pairs: TP1 MNS 8 -> 64 and TP4 MNS 16 -> 64, at low/high load and repeat 1/2/3. Endpoints must have identical TP, offered rate, repeat role, and request-order hash. Expected n=12.
• Repeat-noise pairs: consecutive pre-arranged repeat bands within each of six cells and low/high load: rep1 -> rep2, rep2 -> rep3. Expected n=24. Repeat bands intentionally contain different requests and therefore include workload-sampling noise rather than pretending to be identical trials. Adjacent differences share the middle run; the gate uses their empirical magnitude only and does not treat the 24 differences as independent samples for a p-value or confidence interval.
• Prefix horizons: 5 and 10 seconds. Exact monotonic request completion times and the same Layer-1 intervals are used.

Frozen gates

The response-identifiability thresholds are exactly the Phase-6 V0 thresholds: 75% sign consistency, 2x median effect/repeat noise, and at least 50% of action deltas above repeat absolute p95. At least two response features must qualify at both horizons.

Action efficacy is one only for an infeasible-to-feasible full-run transition. The 12 action pairs must contain at least four examples of each class.

For decision relevance, each individual external-outcome response feature and each individual telemetry-response feature is evaluated by leave-one-repeat- band-out threshold fitting. This intentionally avoids a multivariate model on 12 examples. At least one telemetry feature must, at both horizons:

1. reach balanced accuracy at least 0.75; and
2. exceed the best external-outcome response feature by at least 0.15.

Only if data validity, response identifiability, and incremental decision relevance all pass does V1 open a newly registered matched GPU pilot. No threshold or feature is changed after observing V1.