aituner/docs/opprof_campaign_state.md

# OpProf campaign state — pattern-conditioned operator profiling (vLLM 0.24.0 / Qwen3-30B-A3B / H20)

Started 2026-07-11. Orchestrator: Claude (session a42d23fb). Workers: codex via companion.
Discipline inherited from SimFid campaign (replayserve/docs/simfid_campaign_state.md):
pre-registered acceptance gates per phase, codex implement + independent review,
orchestrator verifies, echo-before-expensive-action, GPU actions logged.

## User decisions (2026-07-11)
- vLLM pinned to **0.24.0** (latest community); record commit + sha256 at clone time.
- GPU: **dash0 8×H20, approved for the whole campaign** (Phases 2-4). Orchestrator
  still echoes load/duration before each launch. Single H20 sufficient for TP1.
- Observation patch: **dual-layer** — always-on lightweight per-iteration composition
  telemetry (<3% overhead budget) + sampled heavy torch.profiler/CUPTI windows.
- L-C-A is REFERENCE ONLY in this campaign — pattern axes defined operationally
  (input-len dist / output len / arrival shape / prefix sharing), no L-C-A dependency.

## Phase plan (pre-registered)
- P0 recon (local): clone v0.24.0, inventory built-in observability, patch design doc.
  Gate: USER reviews patch design before P1 implementation.
- P1 patch dev + no-GPU tests (local). Gate: strict review + orchestrator verify.
- P2 single-H20 smoke on dash0: artifacts complete; measured overhead (on/off same
  load) within budget; op-time sums ≈ iteration time; composition matches request-level
  ground truth. Hard gate before P3.
- P3 pattern matrix (~8-12 patterns × 2-3 configs, short replays, dash0): per-pattern
  operator time breakdown + composition distributions + waste accounting
  (padding% / graph-miss / ragged imbalance / mixed-batch interference).
  Hypothesis go/no-go: does operator bottleneck ranking change across patterns?
- P4 optimization proposal (ranked, measured bounds) + one cheap config-level
  closed-loop validation (e.g., cudagraph capture sizes vs measured B distribution).
- Non-goals: no new kernels; no L-C-A ablation (separate track); no production clusters.

## Artifact layout
- vLLM source: /home/gahow/phd/vllm-v0.24.0 (clone, pinned)
- Patches: aituner patches/vllm-0.24.0-opprof/ (patch files + apply script + no-GPU tests)
- Docs: aituner docs/opprof/ (phase0-recon.md, patch-design.md, later phase reports)

## Job log
- P0 recon dispatched: task-mrg3nm1f-spyl85 (2026-07-11T08:25:42Z). Scope: clone v0.24.0 to ~/phd/vllm-v0.24.0, observability inventory with file:line, dual-layer patch design doc. Gate: user reviews design before P1.
- P0 ACCEPTED (task-mrg3nm1f, 34m54s): pin ee0da84a=v0.24.0 verified; VLLM_TORCH_PROFILER_DIR-absent claim verified; profiler moved to ProfilerConfig + entrypoints/serve/profile/api_router.py (verified); design doc 421 lines. USER APPROVED design with 5 delegated decisions (JSONL+msgspec+8192 queue; expert loads L2-only; 2+8 profiler window; 3% gate on 95% CI upper bound; reject --disable-log-stats) + checkpoint decision: community BF16, TP1 primary, TP2/4 counterpoints.
- P1 dispatching: implement per approved design; branch in ~/phd/vllm-v0.24.0 + exported patches/vllm-0.24.0-opprof/ in aituner; no-GPU tests must pass locally (opprof core import-light).
- P1 completed (task-mrg588j2, 26m36s): branch opprof tip c60e7eeb, +560/-1 across 5 files (within ±30% of design). Orchestrator pre-checks: pytest 11/11 reproduced; patch series applies cleanly on pristine v0.24.0 worktree and applied tree is byte-identical to branch (diff=0); scheduler/model_runner integration diff reviewed — surgical, matches design hooks. Strict review dispatching.
- Strict review (task-mrg68puk, 14m59s): FAIL — 0 Blocking / 3 Major / 1 Minor. M1 writer-thread silent death + shutdown deadlock (opprof.py:106/145); M2 apply.sh already-applied bypasses base/dirty checks; M3 foreground raw lists violate no-raw-list hotspot contract (opprof.py:182). Minor: missing zero-token+None-stat test; true Scheduler integration test DEFERRED to P2 smoke gate (no local vllm install). Reviewer verified OK: fail-fast log_stats ValueError, pairing across sync/batch-queue/PP/spec-decode, schedule-time snapshots, DP-unique paths, patch-id equality 3/3. Orchestrator adjudication: ACCEPT all; fix worker dispatching (fresh task — resume-last would hit reviewer thread).
- P1 fix round CLOSED (task-mrg6tnum, 13m34s): branch tip 668cfb7e (3 clean commits on ee0da84a). Orchestrator closure: 14/14 tests reproduced; M3 raw-lists-gone verified (bisect accumulation); BOTH apply.sh refusal cases independently reproduced (dirty exit=1; wrong-base-with-identical-patches exit=1); M1 writer failure handling inspected (one-time log, liveness check, bounded close, drop visibility). P1 ACCEPTED.
- ECHO P2 (GPU, dash0): deploy patched vLLM 0.24.0 (python-only patch, VLLM_USE_PRECOMPILED path) on dash0, serve Qwen3-30B-A3B BF16 TP1 on ONE free H20; artifacts smoke + overhead gate (interleaved 5xON/5xOFF identical load, 3% gate on 95% CI upper bound) + one 2+8 Layer-2 profiler window + integration assertions (records==steps, no pending leak, footer accounting). Est 1.5-2.5h wall, single GPU. Deferred review item (real Scheduler integration) is covered by these assertions.
- P2 dispatched: task-mrg7erq5 (dash0 smoke; ssh dash0 ONLY authorized; hard gates: artifacts/schema/footer/no-pending-leak, overhead 95%CI-upper <=3%, Layer-2 window loadable). Est 1.5-2.5h.
- P2 first run (task-mrg7erq5, 1h37m): overhead gate FAIL honored (13.11%, CI [6.24,19.53]) — but measurement judged INVALID by orchestrator: OFF-arm spread 29% across identical runs, one pair NEGATIVE overhead, 10s window with cold-start per run, ON-first order confound (run 1 = coldest = ON). Physical bound: per-step cost is bisect+encode+enqueue at ~11 steps/s. Artifacts gate passed except PIECEWISE not exercised by smoke load. 14 remote tests pass; TRITON backend 12/12; cleanup verified. AMENDMENT A-P2-1 (pre-registered before rerun): warmup excluded, >=120s steady-state window, ignore_eos fixed output lengths, ABBA counterbalanced order + discard first pair, host load recorded, recorder microbenchmark as secondary evidence, one PIECEWISE-exercising artifact run. GATE UNCHANGED (3% on 95% CI upper).
- P2 A-P2-1 rerun (task-mrgdbfju + predecessor, valid measurement): overhead gate REAL FAIL — 4.1816%, CI [3.1364, 4.7117], gate 3%. ON tight (28.18-28.26), OFF (28.80-29.64), pairs 2.07-4.74%. Artifacts PASS incl. PIECEWISE addendum (129 records, accounting balanced). Layer-2 correctly not run. LOCALIZATION PUZZLE: producer microbenchmark 29.1µs/step x 9.7 steps/s ≈ 0.04s/run vs observed ON-OFF gap 5.9s — direct recording cost explains <1% of overhead; structural suspect (capture scan @200 concurrency, writer-thread GIL, queue locking, flush I/O locus). GPU spend so far 117 H20-min. Diagnostic+fix round dispatching (stage-bisection first, minimal fix, gate rerun).
- Bisection round (task-mrge67ke, 34m9s): recorder pipeline exonerated — all 4 stages ~0.5% vs stage-off; BUT all stages kept VLLM_OPPROF_DIR set → gpu_model_runner CUDAGraphStat construction/propagation path active in all; cross-attempt (attempt-2 true-OFF 29.45 vs bisection off 28.39) localizes ~3.6% to that path. Worker honored outside-OpProf stop boundary; temp diffs reversed; 14/14 tests both sides. Orchestrator hypothesis for next round: CUDAGraphStat in ModelRunnerOutput poisons msgspec IPC fast path (pickle fallback for whole output) OR upstream cudagraph_metrics feature carries inherent cost. Next: STATIC analysis first, then 3-trial confirm (true-baseline / upstream-metrics-only / env-set-recorder-off), then targeted fix.
- P2 CLOSED: ALL GATES PASS (task-mrgfgedp, 2h17m). ROOT CAUSE of the 4.18%: VLLM_OPPROF_DIR entered compile_factors() (envs.py:2011-2105) → hashed into torch.compile cache path (backends.py:1024-1065) → every unique ON dir = cold graph/AOT cache (compile 36.41s vs 6.07s) and ~4% slower artifacts. Recording itself was NEVER the cost (recorder 29.1µs/step; serializer-poisoning hypothesis WRONG — TP1 in-process executor, msgspec handles CUDAGraphStat natively). 3-trial confirmation: baseline 29.72 / upstream-metrics-only 29.64 (0.25%) / env-set 28.45 (4.25%). Fix: +1 production line (ignore-list) + tests; tip bbfa717; 5-patch series; 15/15 tests x3 environments. FINAL GATE: overhead -0.042%, CI [-0.174, +0.046] — PASS. Layer-2 PASS (16.4MB Kineto, 2+8 window, 790,843 events, 7,367 kernel events; active-window perturbation 51.3% — confirms sampled-only design). Artifacts PASS (PIECEWISE 129/139). Orchestrator verified: fix commits, ignore-list diff, 15/15 local rerun, 5 patches. Caveat noted: attempt-4 JSONLs footerless (simultaneous shutdown) — excluded from accounting. UPSTREAM FINDING worth reporting: any per-run-unique env var hashed into compile factors silently causes cold-compile + slower artifacts.
- P3 dispatching: protocol-first (worker drafts docs/opprof/phase3-protocol.md, STOPS for orchestrator review before execution).
- USER DIRECTIVE (2026-07-12): parallelize P3 across 8xH20, one experiment per GPU (~8x speedup). Orchestrator caveat: no GPU contention but shared host CPU/memory-bandwidth (API server/tokenizer/scheduler/bench are host-side; P2 showed host-side effects can fabricate %-level differences; saturation-point calibration depends on absolute throughput). P3 protocol must include: pre-registered co-location validity check (same cell solo vs alongside 7 neighbors; throughput + op-share deltas <2-3% to authorize 8-way; fallback 4-way + revalidate), CPU affinity pinning per server/client pair, and host load recording per run.
- P3 protocol (task-mrh6vfqp, 27m13s, 835 lines): ACCEPTED with orchestrator amendments. Dispositions on 6 open decisions: (1) fixed-duration client build+test APPROVED; (2) P10 private-trace transfer to dash0 CPFS wjh APPROVED (sampling_u<=0.125, input<=32768, output cap 256; no prompt text in artifacts; data returns to same org cluster it came from); (3) MNS{64,1024}xMBT{2048,8192} sparse factorial APPROVED; (4) P10/C00 sole TP2 counterpoint APPROVED; (5) 60% load / burst-8 / 240s / 4 windows APPROVED; (6) kernel mapping + 70% classifiability gate + thresholds APPROVED. AMENDMENT A-P3-1 (user directive): 8-way GPU parallelism, one cell per GPU; pre-registered co-location validity check (same cell solo vs with 7 neighbors, throughput AND op-share deltas <3% to authorize; fallback 4-way + revalidate); CPU affinity pinning (disjoint core sets per server+client); saturation calibration under the SAME co-location regime as measurement; host load + clocks per run; revised wall estimate ~1.5-2h. AMENDMENT A-P3-2 (E2 lesson): execution via detached resumable controller script on dash0 (setsid, --resume, state file) so runs survive codex turn deaths.
- P3 E-a ACCEPTED (task-mrh7wd5x, 1h27m, 3.96 H20-h): co-location gate → 8-way FAIL (throughput Δ=0.000% but op-share shifts up to 4.2pp > 3% threshold), 4-way PASS (shares ≤0.075pp) — AUTHORIZED 4-WAY. Client+controller 12/12 no-GPU tests; provenance hashed. P10 transfer verified (4,011 rows, tokenizer parity 4011/4011 exact, 0600/0700 perms, no prompt text public). Orchestrator decisions: (1) 4-way verdict accepted despite validation-stream footer absence (shares from Kineto, unaffected); (2) shutdown-fix (API-parent-first) GPU quick-verify REQUIRED before E-b matrix; (3) A-P3-3: per-class drain budget — 240s for output-512 burst cells (P04-class), 120s others; (4) A-P3-4: P3 hard stop raised 8→16 H20-hours (user blanket dash0 approval; E-a consumed 3.96).
- E-b step1 STOP (task-mrhb2dxw, 10m42s): shutdown-fix verification FAILED hard footer gate — vLLM 0.24.0 API shutdown selected mode=abort timeout=0s and SIGTERMed EngineCore before scheduler/opprof teardown; finally-footer never runs. Run itself healthy (5268 reqs, 43.9 req/s, 1701 records, 0 drops, step range contiguous). Matrix NOT launched (correct). Orchestrator decision: footer must not depend on graceful shutdown — (a) 10-min static check for an official graceful path in 0.24.0; if unreliable, (b) checkpoint-footer sidecar in opprof.py (atomic write each flush cadence; accounting gate accepts sidecar when stream footer absent; bounded loss = last flush interval), new commit + re-export + tests, GPU re-verify incl. abort-kill case, then matrix.
- E-b round 2 (task-mrhbhj9j, ~1h5m): sidecar fix DONE (commit f8b68f24, +195/-7, patch tip 23450fb2, 7 patches, 18/18+12/12 tests; graceful path found: vllm serve --shutdown-timeout N; dual GPU verification PASS incl. SIGKILL with 24ms checkpoint sidecar balancing). Matrix launched, STOPPED at pre-registered drain gate: P10/C01 saturation drain 288.6s > 120s budget (clean window + accounting VALID; drain is post-measurement hang-watchdog only; 0.74 req/s saturated 32k-context queue drains slowly by nature). 3/4 first-wave runs PASS with plausible ordering. GPU 5.47/16. AMENDMENT A-P3-5: P10-class drain budget 600s; drain violations = quarantine-run-and-continue (stop only if >20% of runs violate); P10/C01 existing data re-adjudicated under amended rule if accounting balanced.
- NETWORK OUTAGE (~19:2xZ 2026-07-12 onward): dash0 AND dash1 unreachable from local (pre-auth timeout) — ingress/network fault, not host failure. Detached matrix controller on dash0 unaffected by design (A-P3-2); worker holds 1/min read-only reachability probe with retained artifact hashes for post-recovery integrity check. On reconnect: verify controller state (expect matrix advanced or complete), resume worker thread if its turn died.
- E-b round 3 blocked cleanly on ssh outage (task-mrhdu37w): resumable handoff at runs/opprof-phase3/phase3/access-blocker-20260712.json; last durable 8/52 accepted, 0 quarantine, 0 clean-failures, 6.82 H20-h; controller PID 2237019 untouched, likely still advancing locally. Also delivered mid-flight: P03 profile-control starvation client fix (13/13 tests) + frozen analyzer analyze_phase3.py (4/4 tests). Reconnection watcher armed.
- NETWORK RESTORED (~21:1xZ per user). Controller advanced 8→12/52 during outage then FAILED ~2.2h ago (idle since). GPU 8.13/16. E-b worker resumed (task-mrhkbq8s): integrity check vs retained hashes → diagnose controller failure → minimal fix → --resume matrix (40 runs remain) → frozen analysis.
- E-b round 4 (task-mrhkbq8s, ~2h): 40/52 accepted (20/24 cells), 0 clean-window failures, 542,350 L1 records, 72 L2 traces, GPU 13.31/16. Two aux-gate fixes shipped (+58/-11, 15/15+4/4 tests): profiler-control connection, clean-window failure boundary (post-clean disconnects wrongly counted), 3-sample GPU preflight. FINAL BLOCKER: P10/TP2 warm-up gate demands 32/32 completions; long-context prompts cannot finish in budget (15/32, 21/32) though clean windows are valid. Same failure class as drain budget: auxiliary gate miscalibrated for long-context pattern. AMENDMENT A-P3-6: P10-class warm-up gate = 32 completions OR (>=16 completions AND Layer-1-verified throughput stabilization over trailing warm-up steps), with mandatory post-hoc stability evidence in the report. Finish remaining cells within 16h cap; if cap hits, stop and analyze with documented gaps.
- E-b round 5 (task-mrhnw1rm, 23m46s): P10/TP2 FAILED frozen A-P3-6 stabilization on fresh data (drift 36.76% vs 10%; bins 11/10/16 vs 16) — the cell genuinely does not stabilize; clean window itself valid. Worker correctly refused to relax. GPU 14.03/16. ORCHESTRATOR DECISION: freeze matrix at 40/52 runs / 20/24 cells; abandon remaining 12 runs. AMENDMENT A-P3-7: per-contrast evaluation — each frozen contrast evaluates iff both cells complete; missing → NOT EVALUABLE (never imputed); H1a/H1b use existential logic on completed cells (CONFIRM possible, REFUTE NOT possible at 20/24 — must be stated explicitly). P10/TP2 non-stabilization recorded as a pattern-conditioned operational FINDING.
- PHASE 3 FINAL (task-mrhos386, 19m37s): **H1a INCONCLUSIVE / H1b PASS (5 of 6 evaluable contrasts) / compound PARTIAL** under A-P3-7. H1b effects large + Holm-corrected p≈0: P10 real trace R64 +44.79pp vs both long rectangular controls (efficiency −14.3%/−44.7%); P09 production mix R64 +39.62pp, padding +6.67pp (−8.3%); P06 bimodal burst R64 +23.0/+35.4pp (−11.6%/−22.8%). H1a inconclusive because only 1/9 patterns Layer-2 windows passed representativeness gates (descriptive: P06/P10 flip attention-led↔MoE-GEMM-led across load points). Orchestrator verified metrics.json per-contrast records match report exactly. GPU final 14.03/16 (1.97 unused). P4 dispatching.

## Phase 5 — mechanism-decomposition ablations (USER-APPROVED 2026-07-12)
- Motivation (user challenge): the sign of H1b is obvious; the contribution is the mechanism LEDGER. vLLM does no request-level padding (continuous batching); measured bucket padding (+5.4-6.7pp) explains ~1/6 of the 14-45% E_token gap; the remaining ~30pp attribution (ragged-attention SM imbalance / cudagraph bucket mismatch / chunked-prefill mix interference / MoE routing skew / scheduler batch-variance) is unmeasured in the literature.
- Design skeleton (protocol to formalize): controlled ablations each isolating ONE mechanism on P10 (primary) + P09/P06 (secondary): (i) length-sorted/binned replay [kills intra-cohort raggedness, keeps content+totals]; (ii) capture sizes matched to measured decode-B distribution [kills bucket mismatch; doubles as the config-tier deliverable]; (iii) arrival-shape ablation [steady vs burst, same lengths]; (iv) prefix-caching on/off [C structure]. Accounting must include an explicit interaction/residual term — shares are NOT forced to sum to 100%.
- Metric: E_token under the P3 discipline (C00-TP1, rho=0.60, 240s clean windows). New GPU cap: +6 H20-hours for P5 (P3 cap closed at 14.03/16).
- Gates: protocol-first (orchestrator review before any GPU run); P4 acceptance re-scoped — speculative recovery claims in P4 must defer to P5 measured shares.
- P5 protocol (task-mrhq3ud3, 13m49s): ACCEPTED. Data-grounded specifics verified by worker from P3 raw Layer-1: P10 decode-B support is {1..7} (17,941 pure-decode steps) → A2 capture sizes {3,5,6,7}; A1 = 32-request reorder blocks (R16 0.6417→0.4734, −26.2% rel), 142-request slice @0.4725 req/s, 64s fairness cap. Orchestrator dispositions on 5 open decisions: (1) BLOCKING → approve recorded-arrival BRIDGE ledger (production-faithful estimand; explicit not-literal-P3-decomposition limitation); (2) dual P03/P04 control ledgers, dominant must hold under both — approved; (3) A1 parameters — approved; (4) 3 replicates/arm, P3-control reuse behind 3% bridge gate, optional tier within 6.0 H20-h — approved; (5) Layer-1-only primary, routed-expert telemetry analysis-only no causal share — approved. Execution authorized.
- P5 wave 1 (detached exec, 30min, 0.65 H20-h): HARD STOP correct — all 4 attempted arms failed frozen warm-up stabilization (drift 190.6-216.5% recorded arms, 13.2% uniform arm, gate 10%; completions 25-28/32). ROOT CAUSE: semantic mismatch — throughput-drift gate designed for saturation/steady loads is wrong for rate-following arms whose throughput follows a non-stationary recorded arrival BY DESIGN. Purpose of warm-up = no cold-start contamination, not stationarity. Bonus signal: 190% vs 13% drift gap is itself direct arrival-mechanism evidence. AMENDMENT A-P5-1: rate-following arms use cold-start-artifact gates (all compile/capture events before clean window per Layer-1 graph-mode series + >=16 warm-up completions incl >=1 long-context + zero first-occurrence capture events inside clean window); drift gate retained for saturation arms only. Budget 5.35 remaining.
- P5 round 2 (detached, ~70min, 2.44/6.0 H20-h): 15/15 primary valid under A-P5-1, bridge PASS (0.269%). OFFICIAL ledger INCONCLUSIVE per frozen rules (only A1-under-P03 evaluable: share 0.038, CI [-0.20,0.23]; A2/A3/A4 manipulation-failed; P04 denominator unstable 45% nonpositive draws). REAL FINDINGS: (1) P3 P10-vs-P04 gap was largely a MATERIALIZATION ARTIFACT — P5 recorded-arrival base E=3.014 ≈ P04 control 3.055 (gap 0.041 CI spans 0), while uniformizing arrival (as P3 did) drops E to 2.626 (−12.9%, raw p=0.014, Holm 0.055): burstiness HELPS at low rate via batch formation (decode-B CV 0.87→0.66 under uniform but waiting CV rises); P5 A3 reproduces P3 base within 0.27% — bridge design caught our own artifact. (2) All four intuitive mechanisms ≈0 at rho=0.60: raggedness 3.8% n.s., capture-fix +1.6% n.s. (P4 independent validation +0.18%, padding bound matched within 0.002pp), prefix ~0. Remaining P10-vs-P03 gap (~36%) explained by NONE — workload physics, not recoverable waste at this regime. (3) P4 ranked list: #1 prefix affinity +82.14% ceiling (P08 vs P07), #4 pattern-specific MNS64 has a −24.27% P01 counterexample (sign flips by pattern). OpProf campaign phases P0-P5 all complete; ~16.5 H20-h total.

## Phase 6 — cross-version churn quantification (USER-APPROVED 2026-07-13 "请你测试一下")
- Question: does the vLLM 0.20.0 C1 12-cell TP×MNS optimum/ranking survive on 0.24.0? Paired-surface churn evidence for the paper motivation (matrix × real-eval cost × churn).
- Ground truth: C1 recovered stores (verified): TP1 [2.10,2.35,2.283,2.283], TP2 [2.275,2.275,3.283,3.258], TP4 [1.283,2.442,2.442,2.442] req/s/GPU; best TP2/MNS32=3.2833; trap TP4/MNS16; per-cell recorded anchors + request counts in replayserve docs/assets/simfid_s2r/ground_truth.json; workload = materialized chat_w20260311_1000 (local + dash0 CPFS), output override 128, scale 0.1, pass>=0.95, stepped TTFT 2/4/6s, TPOT 50ms; caps 512 TP1/TP2, uncapped TP4.
- Budget: 3.0 H20-hours hard cap → anchor-subset design required (TP4 cells cost 4 GPU-h per wall-hour). Covariate to note: C1 ran on dash1, P6 on dash0 (same H20 class).
- Gate: protocol-first, orchestrator review before GPU.
- P6 protocol ACCEPTED: 92/92 historical anchor counts reproduced locally pre-GPU (comparability verified); adaptive 25-anchor design (12 peak + 11 adjacent + 2 trap-bracket), 2.65 primary + 0.35 confirmation reserve = 3.0 cap exactly. Decision rules: feasibility flip / >5% drift / floor-bucket argmax / tau-b>=0.8 ranking survival / trap escape rule / 2-of-3 confirmation. All 5 open decisions APPROVED incl. upgrade-path estimand (resolved defaults = churn; dash1→dash0 + colocation = stated limitations) and warmup long-tier adaptation raw>4096. Execution dispatched.
- P6 W1 hard stop (0.43 H20-h spent): 8 replays REJECTED for missing in-stream footers (wrong shutdown path) + redo projection 3.03 > 3.0 cap. Orchestrator diagnosis: P6 validator failed to apply the P5-ACCEPTED sidecar-footer accounting rule (records == sidecar counters within one flush interval). AMENDMENT A-P6-1: (a) sidecar footers are valid accounting per P5 rule — re-adjudicate W1 artifacts WITHOUT rerun if sidecars balance; (b) controller must use the graceful path (vllm serve --shutdown-timeout, found in P5) for subsequent waves; (c) IF W1 salvage fails, cap raised 3.0→3.5 as fallback (worker recommendation, within user posture).
- P6 r2 partial (2.29/3.0 H20-h, hard stop before W4): 21/25 anchors, 10/12 cells. Signals: TP2/MNS64 >=29.4% DOWN (left-censored), TP1 cells right-censored UP, TP2 family down — surface shape moved opposite directions. CONFOUND (worker confirmation runs): co-location flips SLO-frontier pass rates (0.41→1.00, 0.03→0.96 solo; waiting 8.5→0.35) — co-location valid for throughput/op-shares (P3) but NOT for pass-rate cliffs; 0.20 baseline was solo. USER DECISION: cap raised to 6.0; A-P6-2 = frontier anchors SOLO placement; finish W4 + solo re-confirm key cells.
- P6 FINAL (A-P6-2 solo tier complete, 5.64/6.0 H20-h, 66 authoritative trials, 12/12 cells): formal verdicts INCONCLUSIVE per frozen letter (4 cells censored/non-monotonic prevent bounded 12-cell surface; tau_b=null, never manufactured). SUBSTANTIVE PAIRED SURFACE (all solo-authoritative): TP2/MNS64 −29.41% CONFIRMED (3.2583→2.3000 bounded; mechanism: decode-B 11.5-18 + 4.6-9.5% NONE-graph at old anchor); TP1/MNS8 +13.49% and TP1 plateau converges to 2.3833; old best TP2/MNS32 −0.76% (held, highest bounded); TP4 family right-censored UP >=2.50; TP4/MNS16 frontier became NON-MONOTONIC in load. CO-LOCATION DELTA TABLE: up to +92.86pp pass-rate flips (21 exact-request anchor pairs) — co-location validity is metric-dependent (standalone methodological finding). Orchestrator verified −0.2941 drift in metrics.json. Campaign total incl. P6: ~22.2 H20-h.