Gahow Wang
ab3acfe4cb
Tests of the "rank and buy top N misses the chain / cycle / sentiment" question (report: https://claude.ai/artifact/HUnPtcy7D7Zp1yNQsDLRHY): - review_live_us: Apr-Sep 2026 replay; book return vs AI-chain weight corr 0.71, overnight_recovery_top10 excess almost all allocation (memory stage +28pp). - fetch_supply_links: 10-K mentions of S&P 1500 companies by role, PIT by filing date (12,117 S&P 500 10-Ks; --universe mid for 14,382 S&P 400/600 10-Ks). - lead_lag: corr-peer and 10-K link momentum worked 2006-16 (FM t 3.3-4.3) and vanished 2017-26 (t -2.1..-0.6); Granger lead-lag network and earnings spillover drift null after 2016. - theme_propagation: linked laggards of each era's hot industry underperform 2017-26 (-2% to -12%/yr). - lead_lag_small: the same signals on S&P 400/600, 2019-26, all |t| <= 1.8. - sector_cycle: 21 cycle/rotation variants, none with holdout |t| > 2. - fetch_wiki_attention + attention: Wikipedia pageview attention, |IC| <= 0.013. - concentration: industry caps on momentum top 10 cut alpha, not drawdown. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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