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aituner/runs/frontier-split-rootcause-v0/frozen-inputs/q235-state-diag/state-diagnosis.md
2026-07-20 12:05:20 +08:00

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Qwen235 Fixed-PD state diagnosis

Verdict: Active-batch-count mismatch alone is insufficient: after exact reweighting to each config's real Running histogram, Frontier still predicts TP8 faster.

Config Real Running proxy mean Sim decode batch mean Proxy coverage
tp4_ep1_mns64 4.667 13.537 100.0%
tp8_ep8_mns64 12.238 18.938 100.0%

Frontier internal component contrast over its own executed composition

Decode-token-weighted over both pure-decode and mixed prefill/decode steps.

Component TP8 - TP4 (ms/decoded token step)
total -73.6733
moe_compute -45.2710
attention -13.6950
tp_dp_communication -12.7244
moe_routing -1.7759
dense_mlp_compute -0.2890
ep_communication +0.0821
pipeline_communication +0.0000
runtime_overhead +0.0000

Frontier internal component contrast at real Running proxy

Positive means TP8 slower; negative means Frontier gives TP8 an advantage.

Component TP8 - TP4 (ms/step)
total -46.0760
moe_compute -26.3387
tp_dp_communication -12.1532
attention -6.2393
moe_routing -1.2405
dense_mlp_compute -0.1769
ep_communication +0.0726
pipeline_communication +0.0000
runtime_overhead +0.0000

Interpretation boundary

  • Real observed TPOT contrast: +6.9500 ms/token.
  • vLLM 10-second Running is active requests, not per-iteration decode batch; context lengths and graph buckets are unavailable in frozen logs.
  • Frontier ledger exposes additive execution components but no direct graph bucket/padding/launch-overhead field; graph effects remain folded into predictors.
  • Component deltas identify where Frontier creates its own TP8 advantage; without real per-stage measurements they are not yet root-cause proof.